26/07/14 – Doomben

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Doomben hosts this Saturday’s Brisbane meeting.  The rail is out 4.5m and as of Thursday morning the track was rated a dead 4.  There is a slight concern that showers may occur Saturday.

Before we get stuck into this Saturday’s form, I’ll just take a moment to reflect on last Saturday at Eagle Farm.  We had just the 2 winners in Wingara $2.25 and Not Too Sure $4.50.  In both cases you were able to get much better odds prior to race day.  In the case of Not Too Sure up to $12 could be found Thursday.  On a personal note I also had a win on Dodging Eddie at the princely dividend of $14.50 despite it not being an on top silk selection.  That was thanks to 1 of the owners who was super confident about his horse’s chances and was kind enough to let me know.

Race 1

This looks an open affair to kick things off.  After much deliberation I could give reasons why you could back any number of horses here.  I’m going with the Matt Dunn trained Harmonized Feeling (12).  This 3 year old filly has had just the 5 starts but looks to show some promise.  I’m hoping she has considerably more upside than the rest of these.  She’s only been out of the placings once in 5 starts.  Last start she finished strongly to win here over 1300m on a slow track.  This is a step up in class from that but it’s nice to know she can handle similar conditions if they eventuate.  Draws barrier 6 for Glen Colless and I’d like Colly to settle just off the pace.  Other hopes to Bingo Rose (3), Slots (11) and Centrepet (6).

Race 2

If the track is dead or better then I’m keen to get on board with Excellantes (1).  If the rain comes then I’d have to reconsider.  He seems to have a class edge over these and his recent form is very good.  I expect a similar situation developing to what happened last start when he won over this trip at Eagle Farm.  He sat 3rd and before finding the line.  Young Bridget “Bear” Grylls claims 3kg.  The horse enjoys this track and trip.  Other hopes to Jefferson Park (7), Discreet (4) and Adebisi (2).

Race 3

Gee what could go wrong with 16 2 year olds racing over 1200m?  You would expect that the speed will be solid.  I backed Deano (4) when it won as favourite on debut 2 weeks ago.  It won by 1.3 lengths over 1000m when finding the front midway down the straight and powering away.  At double figure odds (currently $17 available on bet365) I think it’s worth a bet considering it’s drawn nicely in barrier 5 and has the trainer/jockey combination of Gollan and Harrison.  Other hopes to Worthy Cause (3), Rosie’s Command (17) and Lady Jetsetter (15).

Race 4

Without a great deal of confidence I’m going with Noisy Ocean (2) in the weekly 2000m+ race.  It’s another open affair and again I’m looking for some value.  Noisy Ocean came 2nd in the Ipswich Cup 3 starts back before winning over the unsuitable trip of 1400m.   Last start he finished 3rd in the Grafton Cup after encountering problems midrace.  He’ll sit up on the speed and gets in with 54kg after the claim of Janette Johnson.  Other hopes to Hi Son (3), Shotover River (9) and Dodging Eddie (6).

Race 5

Finally a race to sink my teeth into.  Believe’N’Receive (1) enters this on the back of a very good win here 2 weeks ago.  As he did that day, he’ll be able to box seat before pulling away in the straight.  He has a super record of 3 wins from 4 at the trip and appreciates the shorter straight of Doomben.  He rises 5kg in weight but apprentice Travis Wolfgram claims 3kg so it isn’t that bad.  Other hopes to Robbers Roost (11), Harada Bay (6) and Sir Berus (2).

Race 6

This looks a pretty average race.  Under The Hat (1) finished strongly last start to narrowly miss the win over 1600m.  The horse that beat him was Wingara who is in terrific form.  Under The Hat has done the majority of his racing in Melbourne and it would be hard to argue that he doesn’t have a bit of a class edge.  The blinkers go back on and I think that will really tune him up.  Drawn well enough to get a great cart into the race.  Other hopes to Oak ‘N’ Arthur (3), Hora Sexta (4) and Hard Ticker (7).

Race 7

 Epic (3) gets out to a distance he revels in and that makes him extremely tough to beat here.  He’s had 2 wins and 2 thirds at 4 goes at the track and trip.  Last time he raced here over this trip he ran 3rd in a Group 3.  Barrier 4 should provide him with a super run for Anthony Allen who claims 1.5kg.  He’ll be strong at the end which will make it incredibly hard for the rest to pass him.  Other hopes to Billy Aucash (6), Ferment (4) and Freton (9).

Race 8

We were on Schilllacking (9) last start when he ran 2nd to Heza Bobby Dazzler.  If we thought he could win then then surely we have to stick fat with the conditions now in his favour.  His form prior to a freshen up was good in Listed company.  Last start he drew a wide gate and used a bit of gas going forward.  Although outgunned in the straight he was only 1.5 lengths off the winner.  He draws a better gate and meets Bobby 1.5kg better off.  Other hopes to Heza Bobby Dazzler (2), Choose A Saga (3) and Bush Caviar (4).

Best Bets

Race 5 – Believe’N’Receive (1)

Race 7 – Epic (3)

19/07/14 – Eagle Farm

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The beauty of racing is that you don’t have to wait long to get over a rubbish day on the punt.  Last Saturday we had just the 1 winner and count them 1,2,3,4 second place finishes.  Frustrating doesn’t cover it.

Anyway we head back to Eagle Farm this Saturday with an intention to rectify last week’s efforts.  The track is currently rated a dead 5 but with fine weather should get to a good rating.  The rail is out 2m.

Race 1

I’ve always felt that Lennie’s Choice (2) needed a soft lead to be a winning chance.  When he’s challenged for the lead he gets a stitch.  That doesn’t look the case here with Lennie looking like he can dictate terms.  He gets the services of Damian Browne which is definitely a plus.  His record at the track and distance is excellent with 4 wins and 2 minor placings from 7 starts.  Admittedly he has been poor this campaign but last start he got things going in the right direction.  Other hopes to Radiant Angel (9), Miss Stash (4) and Tornadoes (1).

Race 2

I really don’t like these distance races.  You can look at them for some time and in the end a dart could have saved you time.  I’m going with How Fairdinkum (7).  This old boy is fairly consistent which is a step in the right direction for this type of race.  He finished 4th in the Provincial Cup at Ipswich 3 starts back when beaten 1.6 lengths by The Inventor.  That horse has since won.  That day Ongoing Venture was just behind and he meets that horse better at the weights.  Last start he dropped back to 1600m and finished 2nd to Wingara who is flying.  That freshen up will hopefully do him the world of good back out to 2112m.  Will race with 53.5kg after the claim of Anthony Allen.  Other hopes to Ongoing Venture (2), Dodging Eddie (1) and Leonardo Express (4).

Race 3

I thought the run of Yeagers (3) last start was excellent.  He was having just his 2nd career start and to attempt 1400m is no mean feat.  Added to that was the fact it had been 38 days since his debut.  He really hit the line suggesting the 1600m here will suit.  With increased fitness and blinkers on for the 1st time he’ll be hard to beat.  Gets the services of Jimmy Byrne who will be looking to lift after being suspended for 7 meetings on Wednesday.  Other hopes to Jumbo Prince (1), Eljetem (2) and Sleep Tight (10).

Race 4

Although I thought the 1000m last start would probably be a bit short for Forefront (3), I still had him on top.  I thought his class would take him a long way and the double figure odds were too tempting.  Well he put in a very good run behind Tiger Dimejan and Mr Favulous.  The step up to 1200m here 2nd up will be right up his alley as highlighted by his record of 4 from 6 over the trip.  Blinkers go on for the first time and Damian Browne takes the ride.  Both positive signs.  He draws barrier 1 which as long as he gets away to a good start (something he didn’t do last time), will see him take up a position just off the pace.  Other hopes to Architect (2), Chalupa (7) and I’m Cool (1).

Race 5

We were on Wingara (11) a couple of weeks ago at the midweeks when he bolted in over this trip.  This bloke is flying at the moment and can make the step up to Saturday class.  He’s won his last 3 and looks like he is going places for Matty Dunn.  He draws barrier 2 here for Tim Bell.  From there he’ll be able to get the run of the race.  Other hopes to Freton (1), Fantisha (5) and Kiss Me Deadly (3).

Race 6

I’m not a fan of this race.  It is a very open affair due to the lack of form by the majority of entrants.  I’m going to go with Not Too Sure (12).  That seems right given my clarity on this race!  This horse is having it’s 1st start for Natalie McCall after doing it’s earlier racing in Victoria.  It’s form down there isn’t bad with a win and a few close up efforts in it’s recent starts.  It won it’s only start at the trip and will appreciate the good track.  He’ll settle back from the wide gate but there should be plenty of speed here for him to come home hard.  Other hopes to Manicero (2), Doughty (8) and Skating Away (10).

Race 7

This is another competitive race over 1300m.  Little Brown Horse (4) is a mare in form.  She’s won her last 2 starts with some strong finishing.  She’s drawn barrier 10 which isn’t ideal but given she should settle worse than midfield, I don’t think that’s a big problem.  There should be adequate speed for her to finish strongly when the others could be looking for a breather.   Geoff Goold claims 2kg and has a perfect 2 from 2 in the saddle.  Other hopes to Startsmeup (3), Bymonashee (9) and Rocky King (2).

Race 8

Best of luck quaddie players as this is a tough leg to finish on and given the previous legs, you should be looking at a decent collect.  I’m going with Fast Arrow (4).  Two starts back he finished 3rd in the Sunshine Coast Guineas.  He stepped up to the mark after starting from a wide gate and working home well.  Not sure what the drop back to 1200m was about last start, possibly an attempt to sharpen him up but again he was very good over an unsuitable trip.  He draws barrier 3 but will likely settle back behind a pretty strong speed.  Other hopes to Palmera Lad (5), Bodega Negra (2) and Comacina (9).

Best Bets

Race 3 – Yeagers (3)

Race 5 – Wingara (11)

Doomben Results 12/07/14

What an absolute shit stain of a day for The Silk.  We had just the 1 winner in Shotover River in race 2 which paid $3.  At the time I thought this is alright as we’d got our 1st best bet up and it was only race 2.  The day felt promising.

However it all went south after that.  We had 4 2nd placings but none of them were really ever realistic winning chances in running.

For those that use the Silk’s 4 selections in their quadrella you would have some relief with that.  It paid $1010.50 on Tatts.  Hey you’ve got to cling to something when you’ve had a mare!

12/07/14 – Doomben

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It’s been over a month since Doomben hosted Saturday racing.  We’re back there this weekend and fingers crossed we continue to find some winners.  As of Thursday afternoon the track is rated a Good 3.  With clear skies through to Saturday the track will remain that way.  Westerly winds will make things uncomfortable for those at the track but hopefully not the horses.  The rail is in the true position.

Track and Weather update:  Good 3 track with clear skies.  Perfect.

Race 1

We kick things off with a 1010m scamper.  Just the 7 open handicappers go around here but there will no shortage of speed.  This isn’t the most inspiring race to kick things off but you’d have to think the Donald Baker trained Mr Favulous (2) will be tough to hold out.  Jockey Luke Tarrant who claims 2kg can sit just off a hot pace.  He has finished 2nd in his past 3 starts and looks to be knocking on the door.  Last start over 1200m he was in front for all bar the last 100m so the shorter trip will be to his liking.  Was also nominated this week for the Ramornie and the James Kirby so connections must rate it’s chances here highly.  Hardest to beat Adebisi (1) and Miss Mega Herz (4).

Race 2

Annnnd it’s back.  The Saturday over 2000m race.   It’s really hard to get enthused about these races when without being too harsh, the quality isn’t there.  I’m going with Shotover River (9) who drops back from Group 3 company to this benchmark 85.  Last start in the Tatt’s Cup over 22oom he finished reasonably well to be 1.9 lengths back from The Inventor in 4th.  It’s been 3 weeks between runs and that freshen up should do him a world of good against most of these who have been slogging it out.  Gets a good track which he’ll appreciate.  Other hopes to Kurtley (4), High Kin (3) and Volkhere (2).

Race 3

I get the feeling that Tiger Dimejan (3) has come back a better horse.  It’s had 2 starts since a spell and has won both of them.  First up she won over 1200m here when sitting 2nd before easily pulling away for a 2.5 length win.  She then won at the Sunshine Coast in a BM90 where she raced wide but still found plenty to win.  She draws barrier 2 for Luke Tarrant and he’ll be able to give her the perfect ride.  Other hopes to Maury (1), Jopa (6) and Royal Jester (13).

Race 4

We were on Miss Cover Girl (1) last start at the Sunshine Coast where she was highly impressive and I don’t see a reason to get off here.  Coming from barrier 16 she settled 3 deep before hitting the go button and putting lengths on her rivals.  There should be a fair bit of speed in this race which will only aid her.  Hopefully we’re seeing a special horse in the making.  Other hopes to Denarius (4), Jetasan (7) and Traveston Girl (14).

Race 5

Saturn Rock (6) doesn’t win out of turn but she has raced well since joining the Tony Crane stable.  Her 3 runs in Qld have all been good.  Last start at the Sunshine Coast she didn’t have the easiest of runs where she was 3 wide throughout.  However she still fought on strongly in the straight to finish 3rd.  She has been beaten Discreet home in each of the 3 times they’ve met.  Michael Cahill takes the ride and with not a lot of speed in the race he may want to settle the horse closer to the action to avoid trouble.  Other hopes to Discreet (1), Write Cheek (5) and Magic In Motion (3).

Race 6

Janette Johnson (claims 3kg) will take advantage of barrier 5 and park Regular (2) in the box seat.  Besides the Eye Liner, Regular’s past 5 starts have been good.  Last start he finished 3rd at the Sunshine Coast in this grade.  The 2nd horse in that race Southerly won last Saturday.  He does his best racing at Doomben with 10 top 3 results in 12 starts.  Other hopes to Epic (1), Believe ‘N’ Receive (6) and Sir Berus (4).

Race 7

I’ve looked at this race over and over with different outcomes so it’s fair to say that there’s a  lack of confidence in my findings.  Kingdoms (3) was impressive in it’s Brisbane debut 3 weeks ago.  It settled towards the tail before steaming home to win by 1.3 lengths.  I’m prepared to say that the reason it settled back that day was largely due to the fact it drew the outside gate.  It draws barrier 1 here which I can’t see Larry Cassidy not taking advantage of in a race where there isn’t a great deal of speed.  He has raced in Group 1 and 2 races last campaign so he is a classy animal.  Will be finding the line no doubt about it.  Other hopes to Transporter (2), Lauren Tate (7) and Jetset Lad (8).

Race 8

We finish the day with a very even 3 year old race over 1200m.  I’m going to go with Schillacking (10).  He’s drawn barrier 15 but I think Ryan Wiggins can scoot across to take up a position in the first 3 or 4 horses.  His past 2 runs have been quite good in Listed grade.  2 starts back he finished 1.6 lengths off Agitate when finding the line.  He then finished 2.6 lengths behind Eastern Prince when tightened for room in the straight.  He races well on the fresh side which is handy because he hasn’t had a start for 7 weeks.  Drops 3kg from last start.  At the price I feel he’s worth a bet.  Other hopes to Heza Bobby Dazzler (6), Tricky Rocket (2) and Architect (1).

Best Bets

Race 2 – Shotover River (9)

Race 4 – Miss Cover Girl (1)

09/07/14 – Grafton and Eagle Farm

Grafton

Race 1 – Dusty’s Felt (1)                                                                    2nd

Race 2 – Speedy Squib (2)                                                               1st $4.00

Race 3 – Lady Jetsetter (12)                                                           1st $1.80

Race 4 – Life Of Reilly (1)                                                                  2nd

Race 5 – Sankara Spirit (4)                                                              1st $1.90

Race 6 – Regal Conserve (11)                                                         8th

Race 7 – Testarhythm (2)   Quinella – Big Money (5)           7th Big Money 1st

Race 8 – Rock Royalty (1)                                                               4th

Eagle Farm

Race 1 – Oceantes (11)                                                                     2nd

Race 2 – Deano (4)                                                                             1st $2.00

Race 3 – Live And Lurid (4)                                                          1st $2.80

Race 4 – Lonhie Rocks (1)                                                             7th

Race 5 – Rare Ruby (1)                                                                   5th

Race 6 – Giovanna Bella (1)                                                           8th

Race 7 – Oak ‘N’ Arthur (2)                                                            3rd

Race 8 – Wingara (11)                                                                      1st $2.60

Race 9 – Romanarma (5)                                                                1st $4.60

05/07/14 – Eagle Farm Results

Yesterday was a day that offered so much only to deliver very little.  We started on fire finding the winner in the opening 2 races.  However it was slim pickings after that.  On a positive note, 2 winners is better than none.

Race 1 – Our top pick Jumbo Prince won by 2.5 lengths paying $4.20.  As I suspected the weight turnaround and it’s general ability proved to be the difference.

Race 2 – We were licking our lips when our top pick Southerly got the run of the race and duly saluted.  It paid $3.50.

Race 3 – I’m filthy with myself for not sticking with Limehills.  I’ve been on the last 2 starts but was put off by the carpark draw.  Our pick Yeager ran 3rd and I’m sure will be winning in the not too distant future.  We found the trifecta but it was understandably worth little.

Race 4 – I was pretty keen on Kalandula but after getting a good run, didn’t show a lot when it counted.

Race 5 – Spurs And Sashes finished 6th and was held up considerably in the home straight.  I doubt that makes a big difference and it just may be a Gold Coast horse.

Race 6 – Bymonashee was poor.  It began badly and jockey could offer no other excuse than it didn’t handle the firm track.  I would suggest it just wasn’t up to it.

Race 7 – Brayroan finished 3rd in the Queensland Cup but all honours to the winner.

Race 8 – I was really keen on Lucky Baa here.  However he went way too hard in front and as a result gassed out.

05/07/14 – Eagle Farm

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After last Saturday’s successful Sunshine Coast meeting we return to Eagle Farm for the running of the Queensland Cup.  It’s rare to see a 3200m race around these parts and with bold front running tactics from Astro Avalanche a possibility, there will be considerable interest in this race.

The track as of Thursday afternoon is rated a Good 3 but showers through Friday evening and potentially rain in the early hours of Saturday morning are predicted.  The track should therefore be in the dead possibly slow range come kick off.  The rail is in the true position.

Track and Weather Update Saturday morning:  Very minimal showers overnight which was fantastic.  Track is rated a Good 3 with a mostly clear day forecast.

Race 1

The 2 year olds lead us out in a race over 1500m.  Jumbo Prince (2) from the Mick Nolan yard has played 2nd fiddle to Fixation in 2 prior meetings.  Last start it was a length back in 3rd in a race over 1400m that Fixation won.  Jumbo Prince meets that horse 4kg better off thanks to the handicapper and the 3kg claim for apprentice Ruby Ride.  That should prove all the difference in turning the tables.  Will more than likely settle back but probably won’t have to be as far back here as he’s drawn barrier 5.  Likes the sting out of the ground and will be finishing off strongly.  Other hopes to Fixation (1), Rich Reward (13) and Little Fighter (9).

Race 2

Going with the in form Southerly (11) in this class 6 handicap at set weights over 1800m.  This guy will carry 54.5kg with Vinnie Colgan in the saddle and has been a model of consistency lately.  He’s won or placed in his last 6 starts.  He’s very good at the track and and enjoys the distance.  On the week backup after a nice run over the unsuitable trip of 1300m will have this guy primed to fire.  Draws barrier 4 and will be able to take a forward position in the first handful of horses.  Other hopes to Hi Son (1), Endless Shadow (6) and Jehannedarc (14).

Race 3

A field of 16 2 year olds go around here over 1400m looking to break their maiden status and get a share of the $100,000 on offer in the process.  This race would have been a lot easier if some of the better horses hadn’t drawn so badly.  Having said that I’m going to give Tony Gollan’s Yeager (13) a go.  It’s had just the 1 start but looked a nice type.  It flew home to narrowly miss.  That was over 1110m 38 days ago and it beat Homehill.  Steps up to 1400m here but has the benefit of a convincing trial win a few weeks back.  He’s drawn barrier 14 but has the services of Tegan Harrison who has shown a penchant on taking horses forward.  With not a lot of speed that could be the case here.  At around $9 I think it’s worth finding out.  Other hopes to If Ever (4), Homehill (12) and Limehills (11).

Race 4

Kalandula (11) resumed recently at Ipswich and had a kill over 1100m at Ipswich.  That was a class 1 race but it raced really well in much stronger races prior to a spell.  It finished close to Some Call Her Wild and Shiraz Attack and also beat Flamboyer who it meets much better at the weights.  This filly races well at this track and being out of Commands will appreciate any sting out of the ground.  Draws nicely in barrier 6 for Michael Cahill who will be able to take a forward position.  Other hopes to Pulsar (8), L’Entrecote (2) and Flamboyer (1).

Race 5

This is a very even BM85 over 1500m to kick of the quaddie.  I’m going to stick with Spurs And Sashes (13).  After winning 3 on the trot at the Gold Coast in impressive style she came to town last start and finished 5th to Believe  ‘N’ Receive.  I don’t think it was suited by the tempo in the race.  It should be a quicker speed set this time and I think from barrier 2 it can get a great run just off the pace.  The red hot Tim Bell steers.  Other hopes to Billy Aucash (2), Believe ‘N’ Receive (8) and Elmantosh (1).

Race 6

Like the previous race I’m going to stick with one I backed last start.  Bymonashee (9) should have won last start if not for a sluggish start and being held up in the straight.  As I pointed out last time he has form around River Lad and Tiger Tees last campaign.  There should be adequate speed here for him to get over them in the straight.  Ryan Wiggins takes the ride and was successful on his only other time on top.  Other hopes to Seeking More (4), Black Magic (6) and Metallurgical (7).

Race 7

As much as I’d love to see a bold front running display by Astro Avalanche to win, I just can’t back it.  Yes it captured the imagination last start when it was up to 100m in front but prior to that it was downright rubbish.   I’m going with Brayroan (2).  He enters this race on the back of a very strong Caloundra Cup win over 2400m.  Unlike the majority of these he has raced competitively over 3200m in the past.  Other hopes to Astro Avalanche (6), The Inventor (3) and Major Major (12).

Race 8

Going with Lucky Baa (7) in the last.  This bloke does not know how to run a bad race.  He’s been in the placings in all baa 1 of his 9 career starts.  He has a terrific record at the track and distance, winning 2 from 2.  His 1st up run at Ipswich was full of merit after racing 3 wide.  Barrier 8 could be tricky but there doesn’t look a great deal of speed and I can see Eddie Wilkinson being able to push forward and take up a top position.  Other hopes to Star Sammy (2), Qfighter (5) and Robbers Roost (12).

Best Bets

Race 4 – Kalandula (11)

Race 6 – Bymonashee (9)

Race 8 – Lucky Baa (7)