25/10/14 – Doomben, Moonee Valley and Rosehill

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The racing world’s eye will be firmly cast on Moonee Valley this weekend for the Manikato on Friday night and the Cox Plate Saturday.  While obviously these deserve attention, we still have racing in Brisbane that warrants involvement.

Doomben is currently rated a  Good 3 and should remain that way with fine weather predicted.  There is a slight chance of a shower or storm Saturday but that shouldn’t be till after racing has finished.  The rail is out 1m.  Looks a challenging card.

Doomben

Race 1

Tough to gather a feel for the opening race for 2 year olds with so many 1st starters who haven’t had a trial.  I couldn’t possibly give a push here.  I see $1.40 offered for Frequendly…phuleeeez.

Race 2

The last month or so has been good for the Saturday distance race.  The likes of Hi Son and Volkhere have made it a race you could have some confidence betting in.  Well that’s not the case this week. We’re back to the BM75 Dartboard Stakes where it helps to be Phil “The Power” Taylor to find the winner.  Paraggi (11) finished 2nd by a short 1/2 head in his debut for Liam Birchley.  This guy at times raced quite well in Victoria against some nice types.  He finished 2nd to Ali Vital here as a 3 year old over this trip.  In an ordinary race, he may have a slight class edge.  Other hopes to Colour Charge (4), Highly Gentle (3) and Danehill Native (7).

Race 3

Tukiyo (4) looks good value (as much as $15 on Bet365 Thursday).  She resumes here and has a great record 1st up with 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 resumptions.  Last campaign she was racing against some nice types such as Srikandi and Tiger Tees.  She was far from disgraced.  From barrier 4 Jimmy Byrne can get a great run on the speed.  Other hopes to Discreet (1), Elusive Storm (2) and Queen Of The Lochs (3).

Race 4

I’m looking forward to seeing the return of speed machine Love Rocks (1).  He created great excitement late last year with the way he went about things.  He has been awarded 62.5kg but will get some relief with James Orman 3kg.  I don’t think that will be enough to stop him.  He draws barrier 4 and you would think Orman will just ping the gates, lead and win.  His last trial in preparation for this was  4.8 length win over Tukiyo who we’ll see go around in the previous.  Other hopes to Kempelly (3), Prettyfamous (7) and Vintage Moss (2).

Race 5

I thought the run of Amizade (4) was the best of those that ran around here over 1110m a fortnight ago.  Yes that sounds an obvious statement given she won by 2.3 lengths.  What impressed me was the way she did it at both ends.  She pushed forward to lead before finding plenty in the straight.  She rises in weight and distance here but from the inside draw I think Bridget Grylls can do the same thing.  The run of Miss Cover Girl caught the eye but I just can’t have a horse that gets so far back, particularly with how Doomben has been playing recently.  I see a similar situation to the What About Me and Sea Red race last week where we found What About Me at $7.50.  Other hopes to Miss Cover Girl (3), Freezethemillions (6) and Deuced (5).

Race 6

This is a competitive race over 1600m.  Grayson Square (4) has been racing very well this campaign.  He has won his past 2 over 1400m and 1350m.  This is a step up in distance but I believe he can handle it.  He has placed in 2 previous starts over the trip.  I felt the way he picked up in the straight last start also indicates the extra couple of hundred metres won’t hurt.  From barrier 5 Travis Wolfgram who claims 2kg can go forward to either lead or box seat.  Other hopes to Arctic (3), Danesiri (7) and Shotover River (9).

Race 7

The Gregory Hickman trained Lyric (8) has put in 2 very good efforts since coming up to Brisbane recently.  In his 1st start here he stormed home to beat Grayson Square over 1200m.  He then finished 2nd to Gojo Mimo when leaders were greatly advantaged.  He steps up to 1350m here for the 1st time which does raise concerns.  However the way he has finished off his past 2 races, I feel that it won’t be a problem.  He’s drawn barrier 3 which should see Michael Cahill give the horse a super run in the box seat.  Other hopes to Mishani Stealth (4), Gundy Spirit (11) and Just A Perla (10).

Race 8

A field of 16 where there is no shortage of speed makes this a very interesting last race.  I was quite confident about the chances of Dream Of Slips (13) last time out but it disappointed a tad for 4th.  I’m prepared to give it another go as it was dominant in the 2 starts prior.  Where luck could play a large role in the outcome for a lot of these, this guy has drawn barrier 1 which will enable Bridget Grylls to place the horse in a forward position to eliminate to an extent the need for luck.  Carries just 52kg after the claim.  Other hopes to Power Supply (4), Covert Chamour (2) and Rock Royalty (7).

Best Bet Doomben

Race  4 – Love Rocks (1)

Apologies for stating the obvious here.  I’d love to give a couple of best bets that were at least $3 but this really looks an open card and I can’t declare any more than 1 with confidence.

Moonee Valley

Race 1 – Absolutely no interest here

Race 2 – Straight Gold (5)

Race 3 – Lumosty (1)

Race 4 – Galaxy Pegasus (10)

Race 5 – Au Revoir (4)

Race 6 – Hooked (6)

Race 7 – Atmosphere (10)

Race 8 – Fawkner (2)

Race 9 – Ava’s Delight (6)

 

Rosehill

Race 1 – Redoutable Heart (3)

Race 2 – Furnaces (5)

Race 3 – Grand Marshal (6)

Race 4 – Monton (2)

Race 5 – Transfers (2)

Race 6 – Atmospherical (10)

Race 7 – Underestimation (12)

Race 8 – Boss Lane (10)

22/10/14 – Ipswich

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We return to Ipswich for the midweek meeting.  We have a Good 3 track and with partly cloudy weather it will stay that way.  The rail is out 3m.  There are some nice types resuming that will create some interest.

Race 1

Maiden stayers test over 2150m doesn’t really fill one with enthusiasm or confidence.  This motley crew have combined for 145 starts and still remain maidens.  The best bet here would be to not bet.  However if you’re desperate then Bella Fortuna (8) is an each way proposition.  Has only placed in 3 of 17 starts but did put in a spirited showing here last start.  She finished 2nd over this trip after racing wide for the 1st 1000m before pushing forward.  I thought she showed a bit of fight to narrowly go down after a less than ideal run.  Hardest to beat Beldan (1).

Race 2

Whiskey Allround (1) resumes here for Tony Gollan and you would suspect he’ll be too strong for this lot.  Has 59kg to contend with but draws nicely in barrier 2.  This time last year he was matching motors with the likes of Enquare and Splendora.  Has won 3 from 5 over this trip.

Race 3

A couple of nice 1st starters debut here.  I’m going with Liam Birchley’s Choivision (2).  This colt has looked good in 2 trial wins and gets the services of Chris Munce.  He should be able to give the horse a decent run from barrier 6.  Hardest to beat Stay In Vegas (4).

***Choivision has been scratched.  Following similar reasoning, Stay In Vegas (4) becomes our top pick.  Undefeated in 2 trials.***

Race 4

Five of these faced off against each other here 2 weeks ago.  King Of The Castle (6) finished the best of those in 2nd place.  He will meet them better at the weights here thanks to the 3kg claim for Cassie Schmidt.  He’s drawn barrier 9 but should be able to cross if he starts like he did last start.  The big improver could be Senor Carlos (7) who was only 2.9 lengths back in that race.  He was on debut and didn’t seem to have a great deal of luck.  Go On Red (4) and Buckin The Blues (2) also have their hopes.

Race 5

Chariot Of Gold (1) enters this race in great form.  He has been in the quinella his past 4 starts but it’s his last start 2nd that gets me in.  Over this trip he led them up with Lucky Black in close attendance.  Those 2 fought it out in the straight with COG only going down by a nose.  That form line stacks up.  Lucky Black won with ease on Sunday at the Sunshine Coast.  Lucky Black narrowly went down to Abaddon the start prior and that horse was dominant Saturday in town.  Other hopes to Colony (4), Jack Be Quick (6) and One More Knight (5).

Race 6

Sometimes you can tend to look too much into race.  Splendora (1) is the class runner in the race having contested Group races last campaign.  Yes she’ll get back which isn’t ideal at Ipswich.  However there doesn’t appear to be that much opposition here and I think she’ll have too much for them in the straight.  She may not settle that far back anyway given the amount of speed in the race.  Her record over the trip is very good with 3 wins and 2 2nds from 8 starts.

Race 7

Plenty of speed in this competitive class 3 over 1350m.  I’m going with the lightly raced Zietta (6).  She’s only had the 2 starts but has been impressive in winning both by big margins.  She’s drawn wide here in barrier 10 but has shown an ability to get out of the gates well.  I would think she’ll be able to cross for Beau Appo to sit in the first 3.  This is her acid test stepping up from a class 1 to a class 3 but I think she’s up to it.  Other hopes to Buon Auspicio (2), Satirical Lass (3) and Water Kiss (5).

18/10/14 – Doomben, Caulfield and Randwick

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All attention this Saturday will be focused on Caulfield for the running of the Caulfield Cup.  Rightly so but we still have meetings all around the country that need attention and I’ll be taking my usual look at Doomben and then including tips for Melbourne and Sydney.

We had a good day at Doomben last Saturday with 4 winners found on the 8 race card which produced a 118% POT.  This Saturday the track is currently rated a Good 3 with the rail out 6m.  There is a chance of showers but I would doubt the track will get any worse than dead.

Doomben

Race 1

The 2 year olds kick us of over 1050m.  I’m going with the Mick Mair first starter The Wildman (5).  This guy won his trial at the Sunshine Coast by 3.3 lengths in nice style.  Falchion was 5.7 lengths behind him in that trial and that horse ran 2nd on debut behind Hot Snippety.  From barrier 5 Tegan Harrison should be able to give the horse a nice run.  As is the case with all these 2 year old races with limited form, buyer beware.  Other hopes to Madotti (6), Lady Sniper (8) and Military Miss (10).

Race 2

I thought the run of Falzini (1) was a good effort last start.  He sat up on the speed with Thief Of Hearts and managed to fight strongly to finish a length off the winner for 2nd.  That was over 1400m and he steps up to 1600m here but what he has in his favour is a lack of speed.  Matt McGuren who claims 2kg should be able to dictate terms.  If there’s a leader bias like last week then he’ll be even tougher to get past.  All bar his 2nd race start have been very good efforts.  Other hopes to Rogali (3), First Draft (6) and Amajill (4).

Race 3

There looks to be a distinct lack of speed in this race which could cruel the chances of many of these.  One horse that can make it’s own luck by going forward is What About Me (1).  Jockey James Orman who claims 3kg can take up a prominent position either in the lead or in the box seat from barrier 2.  He’s had 2 starts since a long spell and both have been full of merit.  Last start he finished 2nd behind Grayson Square over 1400m who has since won again.  The step up to 1640m here will suit.  Likes the sting out of the ground.  Other hopes to Sea Red (6), Busselton (8) and Vaz De Torres (5).

Race 4

The weekly distance race over 2040m sees yet another clash between Hi Son and Volkhere.  Do we simply just take them in the quinella again?  They have run 1,2 the past 5 times.  I felt Hi Son showed signs of a long campaign taking it’s toll last time.  He loomed up and looked to be motoring before caving in.  Volkhere really showed some fight after looking to be gone.  Can he lift again?  There’s just so many questions in this race that it’s probably best to avoid.  Having said that I’m prepared to have a few dollars on Bingo Rose (5).  I am concerned that she gets back in her runs.  However the majority could be looking for a spell in the straight.  She has appeared to appreciate the step up in journey her last 2 races.  Last over 1800m she was starting to gather speed in the straight before copping interference for a big part of the straight.  She came again in the final 50m but obviously it was over by that stage.  Gets in with a postage stamp weight after the claim for James Orman.  Other hopes to Volkhere (2), Ongoing Venture (8) and Hi Son (1).

Race 5

Written Above All (5) from barrier 1 should get a super run for Luke Tarrant.  His last 3 starts have been very good.  Three back he won followed by some close up efforts to some good horses (arguably better than this lot).  He rises in weight but is down in class and I just like the way he manages to always finish off.  Other hopes to Abaddon (10), Lock’s Legend (7) and Tahoe City (9).

Race 6

This is a really even affair.  Some of the major players have drawn poorly.  Gotitallwrong (3) offers good value around the $13 mark.  She’s been close up in her last 3 starts.  In all those races she’s been finishing off strongly.  Last start she drew wide and was finishing like a freight train and would have won if the race was slightly further.  She gets barrier 3 here for Bridget Grylls who claims 2kg which should see the horse getting a much better run.  Other hopes to Little Bit Ditsy (5), Vergara (9) and Kalandula (1).

Race 7

There looks to be a lack of pace outside the 2 Gollan runners.  With the rail out 6m, that should again play into the hands of Rocket To Glory (2).   Last start he was able to roll along in front before dashing away in the straight.  With the claim for Luke Tarrant he will carry less than he did last start.  Other hopes to The Storeman (8), Territory (1) and Steel Zip (4).

Race 8

Gojo Mimo (4) has drawn the extreme outside.  However this guy has gate speed and should be able to cross to take up the lead.  I was really impressed with the way he led last start and ran his rivals ragged.  They simply couldn’t catch him.  That was over 1200m and he drops back to 111om which I can see being an advantage.  If they try to take him on for speed he should be stronger at the finish.  He’s a horse in form and I’m prepared to back him at double figure odds.  Other hopes to I’m Usain (5), Londehero (6) and More Leverage (9).

Best Bets Doomben

Race 3 – What About Me (1)

Race 7 – Rocket To Glory (2)

 

Caulfield

Race 1 – Sea Spray (4)

Race 2 – Armada (11)

Race 3 – Maastricht (3)

Race 4 – Kumaon (1)

Race 5 – Leebaz (6)

Race 6 – Sweet Idea (3)

Race 7 – Signoff (9)

Race 8 – Big Money (5)

Race 9 – Lidari (14)

Race 10 – Anatina (3)

 

Randwick

Race 1 – Tempt Me Not (11)

Race 2 – Lucky Chappy (1)

Race 3 – Kermadec (4)

Race 4 – Kuro (2)

Race 5 – Deep Field (9)

Race 6 – Disclaimer (2)

Race 7 – Mahara (5)

Race 8 – Avoid Lightning (3)

15/10/14 – Ipswich

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Firstly I’d like to pass on my deepest condolences to the family and friends of Carly-Mae Pye.  If you have a win, give some thought to donating to the National Jockeys Trust.  It’s just a small gesture we can all do to show our appreciation to the men and women that risk their lives every time they climb on a horse.

Midweek racing comes to us from Ipswich this week.  This will be the case for the next 5 Wednesdays.  This will prove a challenge as I’ve always found finding winners on my home track a hit or miss scenario.  One week you may pick 4 or 5 and the next time you’ll get a duck egg.  There’s only one way to find out and that’s by getting involved.

After storms Monday night and early Tuesday morning the track is rated a Dead 4.  No further rain is predicted so we should be racing on a good 3 surface come kick off.  The rail is out 1m.

Race 1

We kick things off with a maiden over 1200m.  Ten Speed (3) was unlucky not to win on debut here 2 weeks ago.  He jumped awkwardly and then copped a check shortly after the start and settled 2nd last.  As he came out to make his run at the top of the straight he was held up before hitting the line hard.  He went down by a nose but the way he found the line suggests he’ll be tough to hold out here.  He meets Poetic Saga who he narrowly beat in that race worse at the weights but will get a better run from barrier 5.  Other hopes to Burleigh Bullet (4), Poetic Saga (6) and Georgio (2).

Race 2

Kala’s Belle (3) should be ready to go here 3rd up.  She has a terrific record over the 1200m, winning 3 and placing 2nd in 5 starts.  Last start she finished 2nd to Satirical Lass.  She was 3 lengths behind but Satirical Lass did run a class record time.  From barrier 4 jockey Luke Dittman who claims 3kg should be able to settle right on the speed.  Other hopes to Hollywood Barbie (7), Tracey’s Angel (1) and Attitudinal Miss (2).

Race 3

Tricky maiden here over 1100m.  We have tried horses with so so form, 1st starters with average trial form and 1st starters who haven’t been seen.  That all suggests this is a no bet race.  For those looking to have a bet, the Tony Gollan trained Tina Melina (9) could give a fair sight on debut.  It finished 4th in it’s trial and has drawn well here for Tegan Harrison in barrier 4 which often proves beneficial from this starting point.  I won’t even attempt to list other hopes.

Race 4

I thought the run of Glitter Face (13) last start was full of merit.  The 1666m start at Ipswich can be troublesome if drawn wide.  This guy drew barrier 14 and was forced to do a fair bit of work to cross into a forward position.  Despite that he managed to keep chasing to the line to finish 2nd.  Here he draws barrier 3 so the task for Anthony Allen will be a lot easier.  He can take up a forward position and prove hard to run down.  Other hopes to Action Button (12), Beldan (1) and Marlon’s Lad (3).

Race 5

Tough way to kick off the quaddie.  With limited confidence I’m going with Star Dragon (5).  He resumed last start in Saturday class over this trip.  He led the field up at a reasonable clip and didn’t get a great deal of peace.  It was no surprise to see him gas out in the straight and run 10 lengths last.  However this is a drop in class and I’m buoyed by the fact he beat Oak ‘N’ Arthur a few starts back.  That shows he does have the capability to produce a run.   He’ll be able to box seat here for Luke Tarrant who claims 1.5kg.  Other hopes to Albert’s Choice (3), Domini (2) and Treasure Map (7).

Race 6

The Tony Gollan trained Highly Gentle (4) creates a lot of interest here.  This former French horse resumed a few weeks ago at the Sunshine Coast after 682 days off.  I thought it put in a very good effort considering the massive break it had.  In France it won over 2000m so the step up in trip here to 1666m should be ideal.  Tegan Harrison will be able to take up a prominent position from the inside gate and with the increased fitness from it’s 1st up blow, I’d suspect it will be right in the finish.  Other hopes to Endless Puzzle (5), Eye Winsome (6) and Cash ‘n’ Style (1).

Race 7

Boss Burr (4) has come back from a year off in very good order.  1st up he won at Toowoomba over 1000m with 59kg by 1.5 lengths.  He then drew wide over the same trip and after doing a great deal of work managed to run 3rd.  He draws beautifully in barrier 2 here for Travis Wolfgram who claims 2kg.  He’ll appreciate the weight relief.  In an even affair he’ll give us a run for our money.  Other hopes to Headless (8), Val’s Boy (1) and Classic Bend (7).

Race 8

Sunset Hills (2) was luckless when resuming.  How things panned out was quite unbelievable.  After settling nicely in 3rd he looked to be going well entering the straight.  When straightening he looked to come out but was boxed in.  At the 200m mark it looked like he was about to get clear again only for the gap to close on him.  I felt he was travelling well at that stage.  2nd up here he’s drawn barrier 1 for Michael Cahill who will hopefully avoid trouble from there.  He’ll get a spot 4 or 5 back from a decent speed and will look to charge home.  Other hopes to Colony (7), Twisted Mountain (6) and Jack’s Jet (8).

Best Bets

No best bets today.  It looks a challenging card and I’m not prepared to declare anything.

11/10/14 – Doomben, Caulfield and Randwick

Doomben

 

Race 11st Tail And All (4)

2nd Zoomania (5)

3rd Borehole (2)

4th Shotover River (6)

 

Race 2 - 1st Wicked Investment (8)

2nd Mishani Di Caprio (4)

3rd Hot Snippety (10)

4th Arteta (1)

 

Race 3 – 1st Mishani Stealth (5)

2nd Cracco (2)

3rd Star Sammy (1)

4th Jet Down On It (8)

 

Race 4 – 1st Bush Aviator (6)

2nd Dubawi Gold (1)

3rd Darcey (7)

4th Flying Home (2)

 

Race 5 – 1st Coworth Park (1)

2nd Strategic Shadow (12)

3rd Ongoing Venture (2)

4th Valerie D’Amour (7)

 

Race 6 - 1st Elusive Storm (2)

2nd Queen Of The Lochs (4)

3rd Discreet (1)

4th Tear It Up (6)

 

Race 7 – 1st You Did What (2)

2nd Buakaw (1)

3rd Grayson Square (5)

4th Gundy Spirit (6)

 

Race 8 – 1st Miss Cover Girl (4)

2nd Hazard Bay (3)

3rd True Passion (8)

4th Girls Command (6)

 

 

Caulfield

Race 1 – Of The Brave (2)

Race 2 – Ygritte (6)

Race 3 – Sistine Demon (3)

Race 4 – Rubick (7)

Race 5 – Protectionist (1)

Race 6 – Fawkner (3)

Race 7 –  Trust In A Gust (4)

Race 8 – Lumosty (6)

Race 9 – Rich Enuff (3)

Race 10 – Shamal Wind (2)

 

Randwick

Race 1 – Moral Outrage (5)

Race 2 – Best Case (2)

Race 3 – Good Project (2)

Race 4 – Black Revolver (8)

Race 5 – Riva De Lago (3)

Race 6 – Sweynesse (1)

Race 7 – Neena Rock (3)

Race 8 – Law (13)

 

Best Bets

Doomben – Race 5 Coworth Park (1)

Race 7 You Did What (2)

 

Caulfield – Race 8  Lumosty (6)

Race 9  Rich Enuff (3)

Race 10  Shamal Wind (2)

 

Randwick – Race 7  Neena Rock (3)