Doomben hosts this Saturday’s Brisbane meeting. The rail is out 4.5m and as of Thursday morning the track was rated a dead 4. There is a slight concern that showers may occur Saturday.
Before we get stuck into this Saturday’s form, I’ll just take a moment to reflect on last Saturday at Eagle Farm. We had just the 2 winners in Wingara $2.25 and Not Too Sure $4.50. In both cases you were able to get much better odds prior to race day. In the case of Not Too Sure up to $12 could be found Thursday. On a personal note I also had a win on Dodging Eddie at the princely dividend of $14.50 despite it not being an on top silk selection. That was thanks to 1 of the owners who was super confident about his horse’s chances and was kind enough to let me know.
Track and Weather Update: Track rated a dead 4 and should stay that way with a cloudy day forecast.
***Scratchings have slaughtered The Silk this week. 4 out of the 8 top picks have been scratched. Is there something in the water or am I that hated? I must admit confidence levels have taken a hit.***
This looks an open affair to kick things off. After much deliberation I could give reasons why you could back any number of horses here. I’m going with the Matt Dunn trained
Harmonized Feeling (12). This 3 year old filly has had just the 5 starts but looks to show some promise. I’m hoping she has considerably more upside than the rest of these. She’s only been out of the placings once in 5 starts. Last start she finished strongly to win here over 1300m on a slow track. This is a step up in class from that but it’s nice to know she can handle similar conditions if they eventuate. Draws barrier 6 for Glen Colless and I’d like Colly to settle just off the pace. Other hopes to Bingo Rose (3), Slots (11) and Centrepet (6).
***Harmonized Feeling has been scratched. Bingo Rose (3) becomes top pick and Spurs And Sashes (5) comes in as another hope.***
If the track is dead or better then I’m keen to get on board with Excellantes (1). If the rain comes then I’d have to reconsider. He seems to have a class edge over these and his recent form is very good. I expect a similar situation developing to what happened last start when he won over this trip at Eagle Farm. He sat 3rd and before finding the line. Young Bridget “Bear” Grylls claims 3kg. The horse enjoys this track and trip. Other hopes to Jefferson Park (7), Discreet (4) and Theft (6).
Gee what could go wrong with 16 2 year olds racing over 1200m? You would expect that the speed will be solid. I backed
Deano (4) when it won as favourite on debut 2 weeks ago. It won by 1.3 lengths over 1000m when finding the front midway down the straight and powering away. At double figure odds (currently $17 available on bet365) I think it’s worth a bet considering it’s drawn nicely in barrier 5 and has the trainer/jockey combination of Gollan and Harrison. Other hopes to Worthy Cause (3), Rosie’s Command (17) and Lady Jetsetter (15).
***Deano has been scratched. Disappointing considering he’d opened at $17 and was into $7. Thought we’d got a special price but it wasn’t to be. Worthy Cause (3) becomes our top pick with Game Of Fame (14) coming in as another hope.***
Without a great deal of confidence I’m going with Noisy Ocean (2) in the weekly 2000m+ race. It’s another open affair and again I’m looking for some value. Noisy Ocean came 2nd in the Ipswich Cup 3 starts back before winning over the unsuitable trip of 1400m. Last start he finished 3rd in the Grafton Cup after encountering problems midrace. He’ll sit up on the speed and gets in with 54kg after the claim of Janette Johnson. Other hopes to Hi Son (3), Shotover River (9) and Volkhere (7).
Finally a race to sink my teeth into.
Believe’N’Receive (1) enters this on the back of a very good win here 2 weeks ago. As he did that day, he’ll be able to box seat before pulling away in the straight. He has a super record of 3 wins from 4 at the trip and appreciates the shorter straight of Doomben. He rises 5kg in weight but apprentice Travis Wolfgram claims 3kg so it isn’t that bad. Other hopes to Robbers Roost (11), Harada Bay (6) and Sir Berus (2).
***Believe’N’Receive has been scratched. Robbers Roost (11) becomes our top pick. Should get an unchallenged lead here and could dictate play. Trakstar (9) comes in as another hope***
This looks a pretty average race.
Under The Hat (1) finished strongly last start to narrowly miss the win over 1600m. The horse that beat him was Wingara who is in terrific form. Under The Hat has done the majority of his racing in Melbourne and it would be hard to argue that he doesn’t have a bit of a class edge. The blinkers go back on and I think that will really tune him up. Drawn well enough to get a great cart into the race. Other hopes to Oak ‘N’ Arthur (3), Hora Sexta (4) and Hard Ticker (7).
***Under The Hat has been scratched. Oak ‘N’ Arthur (3) becomes our top pick. ***
Epic (3) gets out to a distance he revels in and that makes him extremely tough to beat here. He’s had 2 wins and 2 thirds at 4 goes at the track and trip. Last time he raced here over this trip he ran 3rd in a Group 3. Barrier 4 should provide him with a super run for Anthony Allen who claims 1.5kg. He’ll be strong at the end which will make it incredibly hard for the rest to pass him. Other hopes to Billy Aucash (6), Ferment (4) and Freton (9).
We were on Schilllacking (9) last start when he ran 2nd to Heza Bobby Dazzler. If we thought he could win then then surely we have to stick fat with the conditions now in his favour. His form prior to a freshen up was good in Listed company. Last start he drew a wide gate and used a bit of gas going forward. Although outgunned in the straight he was only 1.5 lengths off the winner. He draws a better gate and meets Bobby 1.5kg better off. Other hopes to Heza Bobby Dazzler (2), Choose A Saga (3) and Bush Caviar (4).
Race 7 – Epic (3)