19/12/14 – Ipswich

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After 11 races at Ipswich on Wednesday we return on Friday for another 9 races.  Where are they finding all these horses to race?

Generally I wouldn’t bother with a Friday meeting but I’m heading to the track for the Swich On Christmas Race Day.  Hopefully I can find a few winners to make those beers taste better.  Who am I kidding?  I don’t need any encouragement to enjoy beer.

The track is rated a Good 4 and despite the forecast of thunderstorms, it has been that hot (36 and 38 predicted Thursday and Friday) that I don’t think they will have much effect if they occur.  Having said that, my top selections are able to handle a soft track if that eventuates.  The rail is out 9m from the 600m to 300m and 7.5m for the remainder.  The cutaway is again in place.

***Track and Weather update Friday morning:  The track didn’t receive much rain from yesterday’s storm and has come up a Soft 5.  A fine but hot day with the temperature gauge set to reach 37 should see the track back in the Good range. ***

Race 1

Not an inspiring way to kick the day off.  We have 6 maidens racing over 2180m.  Dakabee (1) went close to breaking his maiden status last start at the Gold Coast over 2200m.  He lost by a head but absolutely brained the rest with Etain who is engaged here 5.8 lengths back in 3rd.  If he runs up to that, he’ll be winning.  Adding to the merit of that last run, it was on soft going.  Draws nicely in barrier 1 for Luke Dittman to go forward and dictate.

Race 2

Well I was pretty keen on Max It Out here but unfortunately it’s been scratched.  Bergdorf (8) drops significantly in grade here and should prove to be the testing material.  Since joining the Matty Dunn stable she’s raced quite well.  Particularly her last 2 starts.  Two back she went within a whisker of beating Elitist and then last start she was just 3.1 lengths back in Saturday company.  In that race Hijack Hussy was just 2 lengths in front.  Not bad form for this.  Blinkers go on for the first time which should tune her right up.  Drawn wide for Tim Bell but this isn’t particularly strong and the extra distance will suit.  Other hopes to Teo’s Belle (12) and Ippy Girl (3).

Race 3

I really dislike this race.  There is some horrendous form here.  I’m going with Pure Greed (10).  I don’t like the fact that he’ll settle back.  However as I said, there isn’t much in this race.  The one thing in Pure Greed’s favour is it’s form and it’s only had the 4 starts. Last start it finished strongly over 1400m on heavy going at the Gold Coast to finish a half length 2nd.  The start prior it got within 0.6 of a length of Elitist.  Surely that’s good enough form for this race.

Race 4

This is a very competitive BM65 for the 3 year olds.  I found it very difficult to settle on 1 with any sort of confidence.  I’m going with Magic Sam (4).  His 2 most recent runs have been very good.  He was nutted on the line here 2 starts back over 1350m before finishing strongly last start at the Sunshine Coast over 1300m to break his maiden status.  In his favour is the fact that he’s drawn well for Jimmy Byrne in barrier 4 and he’ll be able to race just behind the leaders.  Other hopes to Rich Reward (2), Shukriya (9) and Fire Within (1).

Race 5

Anymore (1) has only won the one race from 9 career starts but the majority of those races have been in much stronger company than this.  He resumes here but last campaign saw him compete well against the better 3 year olds, a Group 3 and his last start was a narrow 4th in a class 6.  It’s a severe drop back to a class 1 here.  I am concerned that he has a penchant for settling back.  However he’s drawn barrier 2 for Emma Ljung who claims 2kg.  On Ipswich Cup day he drew the same barrier and settled 4th.  I’d love a similar thing happen in this race.  He has a terrific finish so if he’s not too far away, he’ll gobble these up.  Other hopes to Lead The Way (2), Royal Occasion (3) and Star Drop (7).

Race 6

I expect Screaming Jet (4) to be tough to beat here.  He resumes here after a 166 day spell.  He races well fresh with a win and a 3rd from 3 resumptions.  He’s drawn barrier 3 for Tim Bell who should be able to take up the lead from there.  That will make him awfully hard to get past in the straight.  On his day this horse can motor as shown by his narrow loss to Queen Of The Lochs just under a year ago.  Finished 5th to Tarloshan in a recent trial and that horse came out and won last Saturday.  Hardest to beat Murta Cape (7).

Race 7

This race is horrendous.   To have an interest, I’ll back Beldan (3).  Like most of these, he struggles to win.  It took 21 starts to break his maiden.  However he has been in the action regularly.  He has placed in almost half those starts and has been in relatively decent form recently.  He’s been within a length of the winner in his past 4 starts.  Despite drawing barrier 12 he should be able to get across for Larry Cassidy and take up a relatively forward position as there is a lack of pace outside of Aquamarine.  Other hopes:  The Field.

Race 8

Smart Cash (5) has been racing in great form recently.  Last start he ran on well for 3rd in a class 3 at the Sunshine Coast over 1200m.  The start prior he put the sword to a class 3 field over 1100m by 5.8 lengths.  He draws barrier 4 for Ric McMahon who should be able to race in a handy position from there.  Other hopes to Telmemore (3), Royal Scribe (2) and Foxbat (1).

Race 9

It’s been a challenging meeting so I don’t know why I expected the last to be any different.  I’m going with the Helen Page trained Pantheress (4).  Since joining the stable from Sydney, the horse has finished a narrow 2nd and then won a 1050m class 1 at Beaudesert.  This is a step up in grade from those races but she draws to get a good run from barrier 4.  Luke Rolls can settle in the 1st handful of horses or even closer.  Raced over longer in Sydney so step up in distance shouldn’t be a problem.  Any rain won’t worry her being out of Dubawi.  Other hopes to Pure Reality (3), Repartee (6) and Banchory Lass (7).

17/12/14 – Ipswich

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A massive card of 11 races confronts us today at Ipswich.  The track is rated a Good 3 and the rail is out 8m between the 600 and 300 and 6m the remainder with a cutaway.  I’m heading to the meeting Friday which will have similar conditions so I’m keen to see how the track plays.

Race 1 – Oceantes (13)

Race 2 – Bekanntes (11)

Race 3 – Maggiore (11)

Race 4 – Starocity (6)

Race 5 – Verbier (3)

Race 6 – Sigmund (1)

Race 7 – Athena Fire (5)

Race 8 – Lucky Sound (3)

Race 9 – Knight Templar (2)

Race 10 – Grapevine (9)

Race 11 – Great Game (1)

13/12/14 – Review

Yesterday was a weird old day for The Silk.   Our heavy involvement edition was like a roller coaster ride.  We had the highs of Ascot mixed with the lows of basically everywhere else.  That’s punting I guess.

I’ll start with with the positives.  Ascot was very kind to us.  We found 6 of the 8 winners with the 2 non-winners both finishing 3rd.  It’s true that half of these were short priced favourites but we did get between $4 and $6 for other 3.  A day can always be rescued in Perth.

Randwick and Flemington weren’t fantastic but they weren’t bad either.  We basically broke even at these 2 meetings.  3 winners at Randwick in Saigon Tea, Our Boy Malachi and a site favourite, Rudy.  2 winner at Flemington in Golden Mane and the aptly named Tips and Beers.

The negatives were no doubt Doomben and Morphettville where just 1 short priced favourite was found at each meeting.  It’s particularly disappointing that I did so poorly at Doomben given the success that’s been had there recently.

On a personal note my day was salvaged thanks to a successful day with the quads.  I picked up Randwick (who didn’t?), Flemington and Ascot.  You could say that I went a bit wide with my Ascot quad with my 4 selections winning their legs.  It would have been nice to have a 50 on those 1 out haha.

13/12/14 – Ascot, Flemington, Morphettville and Randwick (Heavy Involvement Edition)

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Here’s some food for thought if you’re having a bet today.  Hopefully there’s a few winners in this lot.

Ascot

Race 1 – Fuld’s Bet (1)

Race 2 – Nardini (7)

Race 3 – Military Ruler (1)

Race 4 – He Or She (6)

Race 5 – Black Heart Bart (1)

Race 6 – Sujet (2)

Race 7 – Cougar Nights (2)

Race 8 – Black Royale (17) if it gets a run

 

Flemington

Race 1 – Moscow Pearl (5)

Race 2 – Coronation Shallan (2)

Race 3 – Tips And Beers (4)

Race 4 – Miss Maggiebeel (2)

Race 5 – Fat Al (1)

Race 6 – Golden Mane (5)

Race 7 – Kingdom Of Dreams (4)

Race 8 – Tried And Tired (2)

Race 9 – Berisha (8)

 

Morphettville

Race 1 – Magic Boy (1)

Race 2 – Crossroad (2)

Race 3 – Waltzing To Win (4)

Race 4 – Lightning Drew (3)

Race 5 – Pocket Rockets (1)

Race 6 – Stimulatte (3)

Race 7 – Magnus Effect (4)

Race 8 – Raks McLaren (7)

 

Randwick

Race 1 – Minnesota (6)

Race 2 – Resurrect (2)

Race 3 – Saigon Tea (3)

Race 4 – Let’s Make It Rain (1)

Race 5 – Our Boy Malachi (3)

Race 6 – Rudy (12)

Race 7 – Miniature (6)

Race 8 – Dublin Lass (1)

13/12/14 – Doomben

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We head back to Doomben this Saturday after having a day out there last weekend.  We have 5 listed races to sink our teeth into but unfortunately it looks like they could be spoiled by bad weather.

As of Thursday morning the track is rated a Good 3.  However there is no way that will be the case come Saturday with a hell of a lot of rain expected Friday and even Saturday.  Upwards of 100ml on Friday has been suggested which would mean the track will definitely be in the soft/heavy region.  Could be plenty of squelchy and saturated areas.  The rail is out 2m.

***Weather and Track Update Friday: Track rated a Soft 7.  The huge amount of rain that was meant to arrive today now won’t.  Showers still a possibility. ***

I’m keeping it simple this week and only including my top pick.  Despite the improved weather forecast I still have my doubts over the meeting going ahead.  Even if it does, there will no doubt be a lot of scratchings and it may be selfish but I don’t want to waste my time writing up something that will either be for nothing or need massive adjustments.  Anyway I’m sure you can imagine the comments….”Good record on heavy, likes a wet track etc.”

Race 1 – Brave Ali (1)

Race 2 – Eastern Prince (4)

Race 3 – Wicked Intent (2)

Race 4 – Flamenco Girl (3)

Race 5 – Stroak (9)

Race 6 – Commanding Wit (7)

Race 7 – Darci Be Good (2)

Race 8 – Heart Of Many (4)

Best Bets

Race 1 – Brave Ali (1)

Race 3 – Wicked Intent (2)

Race 6 – Commanding Wit (7)

Doomben Review (The Fill Up) – 06/12/14

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Wow what a day yesterday was!  For those that followed The Silk you’d be a very happy punter today.  Maybe even suffering a well earned hangover!

We found 4 winners on the 8 race Doomben card.  These being Mishani Honcho $2.80, Whiskey Allround $2.80, Allknight Saint $16.00 and Big Money $4.20.  All prices quoted were Starting Prices.  Overall we returned a 246% POT.

I was lucky enough to pick up $5.50 for Whiskey Allround Thursday night on Bet365.   Not bad for 1 of our best bets.  How good was the $18.10 on the tote for Allknight Saint?  I couldn’t believe the price on offer but I’m certainly not complaining.

Race 1 – The day started off on the right note for us with Mishani Honcho saluting by a narrow margin.  After missing the start he mustered speed to find himself in striking distance on the turn.  He did enough in the straight to just hold off the fast finishing Saga Of The Storm and his stablemate.  Maybe Saga Of Storm would be the 1 to follow going forward.

Race 2 – The 1st of our 2 best bets went around here in Shotover River.  I must say I was disappointed with his 1 length 2nd. Probably because I had him in a massive all up with Whiskey Allround haha.  After leading early, I felt that once Paraggi challenged him prior to the turn that he was going to be up against it.  That turned out to be the case with Paraggi showing he had a bit more staying power.

Race 3 – Our pick here Spur Le Jouer was very disappointing.  He finished 5.6 lengths back in 7th.  He was last out of the gates and once that happened he was never going to feature.  Made some ground in the straight but the bird had flown by that stage.

Race 4 – When Whiskey Allround jumped and found the front I was confident that he was going to be hard to get past.  That’s how it unfolded.  With the on-pace bias at Doomben and the super form this horse is in, they were never going to run him down.  He did it pretty easy in the end for a 1.3 length win. I was cheering very loudly after smacking our 2nd best bet heavily at $5.50 Thursday night. Happy days.

Race 5 – I thought our pick here Hijack Hussy was enormous in finishing 3rd.  The reality is however that the percentages of you winning from tail at Doomben are small.

Race 6 – The highlight of the day was without a doubt the win of our top pick Allknight Saint.   As I watched the odds before the race, I simply couldn’t believe how it didn’t have much support.  He was going to get a great run and had form in much stronger races.  As they rounded the turn my confidence grew.  He was looming large as they entered the straight and then managed to fight off Handyman Bob for a length win….huge effort.

Race 7 – There was no false advertising when Big Money won for us in race 7.  He’s a super horse and proved that with the help of a top ride from Robert “RT” Thompson.  RT sat just off a good speed before storming home for a 1.3 length win.  Our top 3 picks ran the trifecta.

Race 8 – With the way the track was playing, I quickly regretted not picking The Storeman in the last.  Our pick Seeking More was admirable but finished 1.7 lengths back in 4th.  I thought he didn’t do himself any favours by fighting for the lead.