25/04/15 – Gold Coast

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The Brisbane Winter Carnival kicks off this Saturday with a strong card at the Gold Coast.  All 9 races are of Listed or Group quality which has attracted a number of interstate horses.

The track as of Thursday is rated a Soft 5.   However we will see an improvement to the Good range with clear skies predicted over the coming days.  The rail is in the true position.

Race 1

Worthy Cause (1) is a favourite of mine and he didn’t let us down last start when he slaughtered a field of 3 year olds over 1350m.  He won by 3.8 lengths striding away.  I got the impression from that win that he’s finally putting it all together.  He steps up quite steeply in distance here to 1800m but the way he finished off last start suggests he’ll be up to it.  Justin Stanley will be able to sit behind a solid speed and get a nice cart into the race before charging to the line.  He’s suited the best by the set weight conditions.  Other hopes to Inauguration (4), Ulmann (6) and Gid Up Strop (3).

Race 2

Former NZ filly Bohemian Lily (12) looked quite good in her debut run for Gai Waterhouse.  She was 1st up after a 97 day break and ran 2nd over 1600m.  She’ll take plenty of benefit from that run and will be a major player here over 1800m.  She gets the services of gun jockey and Silk favourite, Blake Shinn who will be able to race on the pace.  That will make her tough to run down.  She competed in Group company in NZ.  Other hopes to Imperial Lass (10), Game Of Fame (4) and Sheiswhatsheis (2).

Race 3

I’m going with the Chris Waller trained Index Linked (1) in this week’s distance raffle.  He was racing in quite good form prior to a gut busting Mornington Cup run 2 starts back.  He wasn’t too bad last start when finishing 5th to Hi World over 2000m.  He will get his preferred good going here and from barrier 1 should get the run of the race.  Glen Boss takes the ride.  Other hopes to Sir John Hawkwood (4), Tremec (3) and Epingle (2).

Race 4

The Peter, Paul and Mary trained I’ve Got The Looks (8) looks to be well placed here.  She resumes here on the back of 2 trial wins so she should be well primed for a 1st up win.  She has been in the quinella in each of her 3 1st up runs.  Her form last campaign in Group company was much better than it appears on paper.  There should be a reasonable amount of speed here and I can see Glen Boss being able to give her a sweet run from barrier 2 just behind the heat before pouncing on them in the straight.  Other hopes to Espiritu (6), Diamond Fund (3) and Estonian Princess (1).

Race 5

Ninth Legion (1) has 60.5kg and a wide gate to contend with but put frankly, he has a class edge over these.  Prior to the Doncaster failure which was completely understandable given the conditions, he was racing in excellent fashion.  He missed by a whisker in the Group 2 Ajax over 1500m and ran with 1.5 lengths of Contributor in the Apollo over 1400m.  The Apollo run is proof that a wide gate and weight won’t stop him.  I don’t think there is a great deal of speed here so Blake Shinn should be able to push forward and take up the lead or sit in the box seat.  He’ll be tough to hold out if he can do that with little fuss.  Other hopes to The Peak (2), Neo (7) and Jetset Lad (4).

Race 6

Gai Waterhouse has a very nice type here in Regatta Rebel (12).  This well bred filly has just the 1 race start and finished half length off Furnaces.  Yes that was on heavy going but that still has to be considered super form for this.  She won 2 trials prior to her debut.  She’s drawn barrier 4 for Blake Shinn which should see her get a glorious run.  Other hopes to Denpurr (13), Look To The Stars (11) and Madotti (9).

Race 7

Ball Of Muscle (11) is a horse on the rise who has put together a great record.  In 11 race starts, he’s won 7 of them and has never been out of the trifecta.  He resumed in Melbourne 2 weeks ago and finished a very close 2nd after jumping awkwardly and carrying a big weight.  He has a super 2nd up record of 3 wins from 3 and should get all the favours for Blake Shinn from barrier 3.  He’ll race on the speed and prove tough to pass in the straight.  Other hopes to Srikandi (12), Knoydart (6) and River Lad (2).

Race 8

This is a terrific edition of the Hollindale Stakes.  I’d be very keen to go Pornichet’s way if it gets a start but at this stage that is unlikely.  I’ll put Arabian Gold (14) on top.  Her last 2 runs have been full of merit.  She finished strongly in the Coolmore to go down by just 0.7 of a length.  That was after encountering no end of trouble in the straight.  She then finished 6th in the Doncaster where she was again looking for clear running room in the straight.  She gets the experienced Damian Oliver in the saddle here and I’d suggest he’ll give her every chance from barrier 6.  Based on her last 2 fast finishes, the 1800m here looks ideal.  Other hopes to Silent Achiever (13), Leebaz (15) and Moriarty (4).

Race 9

There should be plenty of speed in this race which makes this a tricky way to get out after the scratching of Miss Cover Girl.  I’m going with Time For War (1).  He resumes here for a new stable and from all reports is ready to go.  He has a good 1st up record with 2 wins from 3.  He trialled nicely behind River Lad.  From barrier 10 Blake Shinn will go forward and put the horse into the race.  He showed his toughness this time last year when he held off Brazen Beau to win a Group 1 over 1350m.  Other hopes to Traveston Girl (12), Nostradamus (3) and Huka Eagle (8).

Best Bets

Race 2 – Bohemian Lily (12)

Race 4 – I’ve Got The Looks (8)

Race 6 – Regatta Rebel (12)

18/04/15 – Doomben

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Last Saturday was a tad frustrating.  We found 2 winners and 4 second placings on the 9 race card.  We just needed more lift to turn the day around.

We return to Doomben this Saturday where the track as of Thursday is a Good 4.  There is a chance of showers Saturday but hopefully they stay away.  The rail is out 7m which again should favour those racing on the speed.

***Track and Weather Update Saturday morning:  The track is rated a Soft 5.  There is a slight chance around lunch time of a shower but we should be right and could see an upgrade.***

Race 1

I love getting involved but I couldn’t possibly here.  There’s too much uncertainty around these 2 year olds.

Race 2

Pop ‘N’ Scotch (4) raced well last start over this trip on a heavy 10 surface.  He finished just 0.2 of a length off the winner.  He will get his preferred firm surface here which along with the drop in weight to 54kg enhances his chances.  There is a distinct lack of speed in this race which should see Paul Hammersley take up a position towards the front.  He has never been out of the quinella in 3 starts over this trip.  Other hopes to Scotty Be Gotti (7), Markout (2) and Ongoing Venture (3).

Race 3

Bewhatyouwannabe (2) has been racing in very good form lately.  Last start in Listed company he finished quite well to be 2.2 lengths off Sir Moments.  In the 3 starts prior to that he was in the placings and not far off the winner.  To use a popular phrase, he’s knocking on the door.  He’s drawn wide here which is not ideal but I think he can overcome that.  The 3kg claim for Matthew McGillivray gets him in at just 53.5kg.  Other hopes to Black Cash (1), Trakstar (5) and Caellum (3).

***Please not that Matthew McGillivray has been stood down indefinitely and has been replaced by Travis Wolfgram in this race.  Wolfgram can only claim 2kg.  Hopefully I can catch TW today as I generally can’t.***

Race 4

Maybe I’m not seeing something but this looks a really tricky race.  The reason I say this is that I’m finding more negatives than positives for the majority of runners.  It’s with limited confidence that I’m putting Mount Nebo (4) on top.  Returned well last start after a decent break to win at the Sunshine Coast on a heavy track.  Yes it got it’s favoured conditions but it made the most of them.  Up to 1200m and on what should be a dry track, he can still be a major player here.  He drops 1.5kg and gets Damian Browne on board who should be able to position the horse nicely towards the front from barrier 5.  He’s been less than a couple of lengths off some handy types in Sydney.  Other hopes to Kempelly (2), Architect (1) and Mr Favulous (3).

Race 5

Find the winner here and you’ll no doubt have a winning day.  Unfortunately this is a very even field of non-metro winners which makes it difficult to find something to back with confidence.  Winged Warrior (10) interests me here.  He’s put together quite a record up north and goes for 7 wins on the trot.  I like the fact that he seems to be stepping up through the grades and improving with each step.  He’s drawn to get a good run for Brad Stewart.  There are many other hopes but I would consider in no particular order the following for multiples: Hot Hit (2), That’s Pops (5), Passatorio (8), Smooth Talker (9), Magic Jewel (11) and Bandit Queen (12).  Alternatively grab a dart.

Race 6

Jopa (2) finished strongly last start to win, defeating Flamboyer in the process.  Although the win was on heavy going which he handles with aplomb, it showed this is a horse in pretty good form.  He has a terrific record at the track and trip with 4 wins from 8 starts.  He stays at the same weight as last start and gets 3kg off for Matthew McGillivray.  He has a strong finish and should be able to utilise that from midfield behind a decent speed.  Other hopes to Flamboyer (7), Lucky Black (9) and Zoomania (6).

***Please not that McGillivray has been replaced on Jopa by Geoff Goold.  Goold will claim 2kg as opposed to the 3kg MM would have.***

Race 7

He Don’t Care and Dream Of Slips are 2 horses that have been quite good to me.  I’m putting Dream Of Slips (2) on top….just.  He raced in terrific fashion last campaign where he won 4 of 6.  He resumes here after a setback courtesy of a spider bite but if he’s anywhere near right, he’ll be very competitive.  He gets 3kg off for Matthew McGillivray which brings him into the sweet weight of 54kg.  He’ll be able to race on the speed which is always an advantage here.  Other hopes to He Don’t Care (1), Rock Royalty (5) and Lordag (18).

***Please note that McGillivray has been replaced by Luke Tarrant.  While we don’t get the 3kg off for MM, Luke is a talented jockey and will offset the claim with class.***

Race 8

I’ll certainly be sticking with Worthy Cause (3) following his fast finishing 2nd last start.  After getting $10 for the win in that race, it was fair to say I was calling for him to lift big time in the straight.  He was taking ground off Denarius and now gets things in his favour to turn the tables.  Last start he drew barrier 10.  He gets barrier 1 here which will enable Justin Stanley to get the horse into a position much easier.  He also meets Denarius better at the weights.  I expect Worth Cause to be finishing the day for us on a high note.  Other hopes to Denarius (2), Busting Through (4) and Whatalovelyday (5).

Best Bets

Race 2 – Pop ‘N’ Scotch (4)

Race 8 – Worthy Cause (3)

Besides those it’s quite a tough day.

11/04/15 – Doomben

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Doomben hosts this Saturday’s Brisbane racing where we should see a drier track than last week.  The track as  of Thursday was rated a Soft 5.

There is slight chance of showers on Saturday so we shouldn’t see the track any worse than it’s current condition.  The more likely scenario is that it will improve.  The rail is out 5m which should favour those racing handy.

***Weather and Track Update Saturday morning:  The track is rated a Good 4.  It’s overcast and there’s a chance of showers.***

Race 1

Redsson (1) saluted for Silk supporters 2 weeks ago when he cruised to a 3 length win here over 1050m.  I’ll stick with him here.  In that win he jumped to the front before booting away in the straight.  From barrier 3 he should be able to do a similar thing.  The conditions and how the track should play will definitely do his chances no harm.  This race is an extra 60m and he rises a kg in the weights but neither factor will pose a problem.  Other hopes to Hot Snippety (2), Secret Saga (7) and Big Tree (4).

Race 2

I’m prepared to give Meet George Jetson (4) a go here.  He’s only had the 1 race start and little can be taken from it.  Back in November last year he was sent out favourite on debut against the likes of Mishani Honcho, Mishani Di Caprio and Wicked Intent.  Unfortunately he pulled up shin sore.  The reason he was sent out favourite was on the back of a 7.5 length trial win.  He returns here after 4 months off so we are taking a bit of a risk.  However this field doesn’t look that great and he will get a good run from barrier 5 for Dan Griffin .  Other hopes to Banda Spice (8), Agree To (1) and Gangster Squad (3).

Race 3

These distance races tend to be a case of pot luck.  That looks to be the case again here over 2200m with just 7 starters.  I’m going with the Kris Lees trained Oriental Lady (2).  This mare comes up from Sydney after racing in stronger races than this.  Last start she was 1.8 lengths off the winner in a Group 3.  Prior to that she placed in Listed races such as the Gosford Cup.   I think she’s well weighted with just 55kg and will get a super run from barrier 1 for Michael Cahill.  I would suggest she can stalk the leaders from there.  Other hopes to Volkhere (1), Tips ‘N’ Tales (7) and Secret Garden (4).

Race 4

Gid Up Strop (4) raced like a horse looking for further when it resumed over 1350m two weeks ago.  After settling well back he found the line quite well to finish 4.5 lengths 4th to Denarius.  There is a significant jockey change here with Damian Browne taking the ride.  From barrier 7 I think we may see the horse settle midfield or better.  Regardless, you know Browne will give it the best possible chance to win.  Other hopes to Chillin With Dylan (2), Brewery (3) and Annaman (9).

Race 5

Sheiswhatsheis (4) has had just the 2 race starts but has shown enough to suggest she is a very nice type.  After winning on debut at Ipswich she came back 2 weeks later to win a 3 year old handicap over 1350m.  She beat Italian Storm that day who had been racing in good form.  This is another step up in class but I think she’s up to it.  Tegan Harrison will be able to give the horse a top run on the speed from barrier 1.  It has been 24 days since she last raced which isn’t ideal when rising in distance.  However she’ll give herself every chance to hold them at bay in the run home.   Other hopes to Game Of Fame (2), Glorious Red (1) and Col ‘N’ Lil (3).

Race 6

Hopfgarten (1) resumed in terrific style 2 weeks ago and looks set for a great campaign.  I can’t go past him on that 1st up run.  He raced relatively handy before kicking well clear in the straight to win by 2.3 lengths.  He steps up to 1630m and rises 2kgs.  However offsetting that is the fact champion jockey Damian Browne takes the ride.  He’s drawn barrier 8 but we should see him racing towards the front of the field.  He really enjoys this track and trip.  Other hopes to Sir Moments (2), Bodega Negra (6) and Bewhatyouwannabe (7).

Race 7

We were on Neo (4) last start when it finished 3rd to Hopfgarten.  It didn’t get a lot go right for it that day so I’m going to forgive it.  Like it does here, it drew a wide gate.  Unfortunately it was caught 3 and 4 wide for the entire trip so to finish within 2.9 lengths wasn’t a bad result.  He was still finding the line which he wasn’t entitled to do.  Unlike that start, Jim Byrne should be able to find a spot easier.   Quite possibly 3rd on the rail.  If that’s the case, he’ll be very hard to hold out.   Other hopes to Gundy Spirit (12), Black Cash (5) and Belannoro (13).

Race 8

Upstart Pride (3) is as tough as an old boot and has a real will to win.  He enters this race on the back of some very good form and goes for a hattrick of wins.  Last start at the Gold Coast he jumped from a wide gate, hustled early to lead.  They simply couldn’t pass him in the straight.  That was over 1200m and he drops back to 1110m here.  Again he’s drawn wide but Slick Ric McMahon should still be able to get the horse into good position on the speed.  Other hopes to Groovy Gal (13), Feels Like Home (10) and Bold Attraction (16).

Race 9

What a great race to finish the day!  There are many chances in this and I couldn’t talk you out of backing any of them.  I’m going with Cape Kidnappers (2).  I must admit he’s an old favourite of mine but I also think he gets a lot in his favour here.  His last start prior to a spell was a doozy where he knuckled at the start and threw jockey Damian Browne.  His form previous to that was very good with close up placings around the red hot Big Money.  He has a very good 1st up record with 4 wins and 2 minor placings from 7 resumptions.  He also loves this distance.  From barrier 1 Browne will be able to give him close to the run of the race.  Other hopes to Whiskey Allround (10), Heza Bobby Dazzler (14) and Rocket To Glory (4).

Best Bets

Race 4 – Gid Up Strop (4)

Race 6 – Hopfgarten (1)

28/03/15 – Ipswich Greyhounds

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I’m heading to the Ipswich Greyhounds tomorrow night for the Swich On members night.  It’s been some time since I’ve been there and it’s probably a little controversial given recent events.  Here’s how I’ll be going depending on prices available:

Race 1 – Macmarcus (1)

Race 2 – Crankshaft (7)                      Quinella – Macnivek (8)

Race 3 – Silky Oak (1)

Race 4 – Maywyn’s Ace (9)

Race 5 – Whata Nice Size (1)            Quinella – Torque Flight (7)

Race 6 – Majestic Jester (4)              Quinella – With A Gee (8)

Race 7 – Chevaleir Nuit (4)

Race 8 – Waikarie Warrior (3)         Quinella – War Picture (7)

Race 9 – Pictures Pearce (2)              Quinella – Not Like Tommy (7)

Race 10 – Birthday Bash (3)

28/03/15 – Doomben

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Doomben hosts another Saturday meeting after we were rudely interrupted last Saturday by heavy rain.  The track is rated a heavy 8 Thursday morning and with further showers/rain forecast, it looks like we will be racing on a rain affected track come Saturday.

The rail is out 6.5m.  I’m working on the track being no better than a Soft 6.

***Track and Weather Update Saturday morning: Track is rated a Soft 7.  The forecast is for a mostly clear day so we may see an improvement up to a Soft 5.***

Race 1

  1. Redsson (2)
  2. Secret Saga (8)
  3. One More Magic (13)
  4. St Remy (10)

Race 2

  1. Tips ‘N’ Tales (6)
  2. Perplexity (1)
  3. Secret Garden (4)
  4. Highly Gentle (7)

Race 3

  1. Foreign Prince (1)
  2. Bodega Negra (6)
  3. Specific Choice (7)
  4. Ms Ba Bella (4)

Race 4

  1. Craftiness (6)
  2. Seeking More (2)
  3. Lucky Meteor (4)
  4. Mr Favulous (3)

Race 5

  1. Worthy Cause (4)
  2. Trubia (7)
  3. Gid Up Strop (9)
  4. Denarius (5)

Race 6

  1. Aimee (3)
  2. Nicky Nocky (9)
  3. Little Brown Horse (2)
  4. Tornado Miss (4)

Race 7

  1.  Neo (5)
  2. Sir Moments (1)
  3. Hopfgarten (3)
  4. Jopa (9)

Race 8

  1. He Don’t Care (4)
  2. Gun Case (8)
  3. Gundy Spirit (1)
  4. Nothing Like Luca (2)

Best Bets

Race 3 – Foreign Prince (1)

Race 6 – Aimee (3)

Race 8 – He Don’t Care (4)

21/03/15 – Doomben

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I won’t lie.  I’ve found Saturday Brisbane racing bloody frustrating lately.  I seem to be around the mark with my on top picks but they just can’t seem to get over the line.  The perfect example was last Saturday where I found 1 winner and 3 runners up.

Facebook followers would have at least had some joy with the Flemington selections where 4 winners were found.

We’re back at Doomben this Saturday where the track is currently rated a Good 4 and the rail is out 3.5m.  Thursday and Friday are supposed to be very hot with a showers/storms a possibility Saturday.  I would think that given the heat over the next 2 days that it would take significant rain to change a Good rating.

***Saturday track and weather update:  The track is rated a Good 4.  The day has started out overcast and there is a chance of showers/storms in the afternoon. If they occur, our top picks look more than capable of handling a soft track.***

My Golden Slipper pick is Vancouver.  Other Rosehill picks at following Doomben.

Race 1

  1. Montana Star (2)
  2. Mishani Di Caprio (1)
  3. Flying Sand (4)
  4. Man Of His Word (5)

Race 2

  1. Hi Son (1)
  2. Bewhatyouwannabe (3)
  3. Paederos (5)
  4. Volkhere (2)

Race 3

  1. Herrschaft (7)
  2. Henryvonhufeisen (2)
  3. Canongate (9)
  4. Touch Of Bella (3)

Race 4

  1. Pop ‘N’ Scotch (6)
  2. Miss Husson (7)
  3. Tips ‘N’ Tales (10)
  4. Cheeky Devil (15)

Race 5

  1. He Don’t Care (3)
  2. Dream Of Slips (2)
  3. Rock Royalty (5)
  4. Lucky Black (4)

Race 6

  1. Flamboyer (5)
  2. Gully Command (2)
  3. Jopa (1)
  4. Passatorio (11)

Race 7

  1. Heart Smart (4)
  2. Vienna Queen (12)
  3. Hot Hit (6)
  4. Vo Heart (5)

Race 8

  1. Rocbolt (9)
  2. Forest Way (3)
  3. Fast Arrow (2)
  4. Ella Magic (10)

Best Bets

Race 2 – Hi Son (1)

Race 6 – Flamboyer (5)

 

Rosehill

Race 1 – Fine Bubbles (5)

Race 2 – Rising Romance (1)

Race 3 – Washington Heights (7)

Race 4 – He’s Your Man (3)

Race 5 – Sweynesse (4)

Race 6 – Avoid Lightning (6)

Race 7 – Vancouver (1)

Race 8 – World Ace (3)

Race 9 – Maygrove (3)

14/03/15 – Gold Coast

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What a complete waste of time last Saturday was at the Sunshine Coast.  With the increased racing on tracks around the South-East because of the upgrade to Eagle Farm, the tracks are simply not handling it.  Sunshine Coast resembled a beach with all the sand they placed on it.  Maybe some weekend hackers had a round of golf on the track and replaced their divots.  Whatever the reason it did us no favours.

It might sound like sour grapes but I’ve been contemplating having a break given all the uncertainty with the tracks. However I just couldn’t bring myself to it so here’s a look at Gold Coast.  The track is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position.  There is a chance of showers and storms so it will pay to monitor.

Race 1

  1. Anton En Avant (1)
  2. Vodnik (4)
  3. Rock The Pac (6)
  4. Secret Garden (3)

Race 2

  1. Eight’s A Party (3)
  2. Specific Choice (4)
  3. Bewhatyouwannabe (1)
  4. Hora Sexta (6)

Race 3

  1. Powerful Saga (2)
  2. Secret Trail (10)
  3. One Standout (8)
  4. Favoured Grace (9)

Race 4

  1. Living On A Prayer (1)
  2. Big Decision (9)
  3. Jefferson Park (2)
  4. Real Favulous (4)

Race 5

  1. Miss Cover Girl (11)
  2. Bodega Negra (3)
  3. Flamboyer (6)
  4. Miss Ba Bella (9)

Race 6

  1. Diamond Fund (2)
  2. Siegfried (5)
  3. Pillar Of Creation (1)
  4. Fast Arrow (9)

Race 7

  1. Architect (4)
  2. Sir Moments (1)
  3. Neo (6)
  4. Black Cash (7)

Race 8

  1. Code Noir (4)
  2. Amizade (3)
  3. Upstart Pride (1)
  4. Notonyourlife (8)

 

Best Bets

Race 2 – Eight’s A Party (3)

Race 5 – Miss Cover Girl (11)