29/11/14 – Doomben

doomben

With just the 1 winner found at Doomben last Saturday, we’re looking to hit back hard at this Saturday’s meeting.  As The Snorkel would say,  “Lift Silk!”.

The rail is out 5m and the track as of Thursday was rated a Good 3.  However there is a high chance of showers and storms through to Saturday so it would be unlikely to stay that way.  I’m working on the assumption that it will be in the dead/slow range.

Track and Weather Update Saturday morning:  Track rated a dead 5 with a fine day on the cards.

Race 1

We kick things off with the 2 year olds racing over 1050m.  I’ll be approaching this race with caution given the way they have played out so far this season.  I liked the way Wicked Intent (3) went about it on debut.  In his only race start he began well to sit in 2nd in the run before pulling away over the final 100m for a 2.3 length win.  Despite that being 56 days ago, I would suggest the extra 150m here will suit.  Gets the services of Chris Munce who should be able to position the horse in the first 4 or 5.  Other hopes to Mishani Honcho (2), Meet George Jetson (7) and Mishani Di Caprio (1).

Race 2

Just the 7 go around in the weekly distance race over 2200m.  Despite the small field the task of finding the winner isn’t any easier.  I’m sticking with Bingo Rose (2) after she won for us last time out.  There were doubts over her ability to step up to 2000m and both runs she’s had recently over the trip have shown that it wasn’t a problem.  She now goes to 2200m and again concerns are raised.   Given the way she finished off in last start’s win, I don’t think it will be a problem.  She controlled things from the front last time and I can see Luke Tarrant doing the same thing again from barrier 5.  I must make it clear that I was very interested in Shotover River with the massive weight turnaround on Bingo Rose.  However the deciding factor was that Bingo seemed to be finishing off better and that the weight change while significant wouldn’t make up the distance.  Other hopes to Shotover River (5), Mr Scary (7) and Amexed (1).

Race 3

This is a very competitive race.  I’ve spent a considerable time weighing up the pros and cons of each runner.  I’m going with Beatniks (6).  Last start he finished a long neck 2nd to Imperil at the Sunshine Coast.  While not looking that fantastic on paper given the class of the race, Imperil ran well the start prior when beating home Little Bit Ditsy.  I get the feeling that Beatniks is looking for the 1630m here.  She’s been running on quite well over shorter trips.  From barrier 6 Jimmy Byrne will be able settle in a nice position around midfield and track Scarborough into the race.  Her form earlier this year in the 3 year old races was quite strong.  Other hopes to Little Bit Ditsy (7), Scarborough (2) and Slate On Edge (1).

Race 4

These 3 year olds will go hell for leather in this 1110m sprint.  Worthy Cause (7) resumes here after a 126 day break.  He raced well as a 2 year old winning by a big margin on debut before 2 close 2nds.  With the speed on he’ll settle off the speed and be charging late.  Gets the services of Damian Browne which is a massive bonus.  Other hopes to Stroak (4), Lupo Nero (13) and Soldi Domani (2).

***Our top 2 picks have been scratched which reduces my confidence about betting in this race.  I’ll put Lupo Nero (13) on top based on the fact it will carry no weight, be able to jump and run from the good gate and did a space job to the opposition on debut.***

Race 5

As much as I’m a fan of Abaddon, I’m rightly or wrongly backing against him here.  He’ll be up to his eyeballs in this, don’t get me wrong.  Joe Pride has a terrific record when bringing horses up to Brisbane and he has Casual Choice (9) here.  Last start he finished well at Rosehill to finish 1.9 lengths to Heart Testa over this trip.  Last campaign he mixed it up with Cradle Me in what would be stronger grades than this.  He draws barrier 4 here and Jimmy Byrne should be able to give the horse a very good run.  Other hopes to Abaddon (3), Romanarma (6) and Sister Emma (8).

Race 6

Brook Road (14) should be awfully hard to beat here.  She’s been racing really well in Sydney with a nose 2nd to Avoid Lightning in the Group 3 Nivision.  That sort of form will have these covered.  She will not know herself after carting 60kg last start.  She goes well over this trip and likes the sting out of the ground.  Gets Jimmy Byrne in the saddle and he should be able to give her a lovely run from barrier 7.  Other hopes to Elusive Storm (5), Discreet (2) and Tukiyo (3).

Race 7

Rudy (10) has been flying since resuming 2 starts back.  He’s finished strongly over 1200 and 1350m to finish close 2nds in both races.  The 1630m now is ideal.  As I’ve been writing this, Brisbane copped a monumental storm which will soften up Doomben no end.  Rudy will love that.  Mind you I think wet or dry, he’s the one they all have to beat when he’s charging to the line.  Other hopes to Hopfgarten (4), Lady Echelon (6) and Darci Be Good (3).

Race 8

Dream Of Slips (6) has been very good to us and I’m sticking with him.  He’s won his past 2 and looks to be stepping up through the grades nicely.  He can continue that upward spiral here.  He has barrier 9 to deal with but I can see Bridget Grylls being able to get across relatively easily to take up a box seat roll behind Primal Flight.  Being a Commands, he won’t mind if the track is wet as shown by his 2 from 2 on slow.  He beat Sporting Page 2 starts back and that horse won here for us last Saturday.  Other hopes to Cum Dividend (3), Gundy Son (2) and Primal Flight (13).

Best Bets

Race 6 – Brook Road (14)

Race 7 – Rudy (10)

The Ascot Adventure – Super Saturday 2014 Review

Photo courtesy of Perth Racing.

Well I’ve arrived back home in one piece after 4 days in Perth so I thought I would reflect on my experience.  About a month or so ago I was looking into places to spend a few days to recharge the batteries after a hectic time with family and work.

I started thinking maybe a few days down the Gold Coast would do the trick which turned into going to the Spring Carnival in Melbourne.  However it was fast approaching so planning would be tough and also the crowds really didn’t appeal.  I then thought about heading to Perth for the Railway Stakes/Winterbottom Stakes or Super Saturday meeting. The fact there was Group 1 racing and it was something that not many from the East Coast would think about experiencing interested me.  I’m pleased to say I pulled the right rein.

Unfortunately I didn’t back a winner at the meeting.  Not to make excuses but I wasn’t alone with many of the local tipsters failing to find 1 themselves.  However that didn’t bother me which says so much about the quality of the meeting as an overall event.  I’ll get into that later but first I’ll recap on the results.  As I said I didn’t back a winner but picked a number of close 2nds and 3rds which if they had lifted a bit more, the day could have had a completely different outcome.  That’s racing.

Photo courtesy of Perth Racing.

Photo courtesy of Perth Racing.

The Races

Race 1 – I was pretty keen on the chances of 1st starter Ningbo.  It was well bred and had stood out in the trials.  Unfortunately was found wanting and finished 6th.  It will win a race in the not too distant future.

Race 2 – I backed Arcadia Rose here and she ran on strongly for a length 2nd.  The winner led on a day that seemed to suit those in front so it was a good run from Arcadia Rose given that.

Race 3 – Given how the 1st 2 races had gone, I was confident about the chances of Fuld’s Bet.  Jump to the front, no worries.  She settled 4th with a sit and ended up finishing 0.4 of a length from the winner who again led all the way.  No excuses, she had a good run but just wasn’t good enough.

Race 4 – This was a frustrating race for me.  When doing the form I had tossed up going for Real Love or Black Heart Bart.  I ended up with Real Love who finished half a length 2nd to Bart.  My aunty who came on the trip backed Bart. Both ran on from the tail in good efforts.

Race 5 – After backing William Pike in 3 of the first 4 races, I went against him here and he saluted on Antique Belle at $9.  Pikey’s my favourite jockey in the West so in hindsight I should have just had some bucks on him in every race.  I was on Cool Trade here and once again I found the runner up.  It ran wide throughout so to only go down by a length wasn’t a bad effort.  Unfortunately no prizes for efforts.

Race 6 – The W.A. Guineas was the 1st of the big races and I was super confident about Disposition.  Had everything going for it so I unloaded big time.  In the run I was confident as they were going quickly.  Unfortunately despite finishing strongly, he just couldn’t get over Rommel and went down by half a length.

Race 7 – I was pretty excited to see the Winterbottom Stakes as it was my first Group 1 in the flesh.  I was on Angelic Light and was liking what I was seeing when Ollie put her in the box seat.  She pulled out in the straight and looked to be going well.  Then the locals came over the top to make the raiders look 2nd rate.

Race 8 – It was time to regroup and given that many leaders were proving bloody tough to get past, my confidence in The Cleaner’s chances in the Railway Stakes had grown.  If he was right, how would they catch him?  Well he was gone entering the straight and finished 3 lengths back in 9th.  It was a really disappointing outcome.

Railway Stakes winner Elite Belle.

Railway Stakes winner Elite Belle.

Race 9 – It was Pikey or bust in the last with Rebelson.  It was bust.  Rebelson had a good run but just didn’t have the legs and finished a length back in 4th to the outsider Global Flirt.

The Experience

You would think having such a rotten day on the punt, a bloke would be kicking cans.  However nothing could be further from the truth.  I went to Ascot mainly for the experience and I wasn’t disappointed one bit.

We stayed at the Mercure Hotel in Perth and caught a taxi out to the track.  From memory it cost around $25.  We were lucky to get a driver who knew a rat run close to the track that avoided the congestion getting off the freeway.  He, like just about every person I encountered in Perth was a top human and I wish the tip I gave could have got up for him.

The only negative I could find from the day and it’s a small one would be the parking attendants.  They were full of their own importance and spoke to the cabbies like they were dogs.  It was totally uncalled for and it was little wonder they were ignored.  But if that’s all you have to gripe about then you’re doing ok.

We decided that since we were flying 3600km across the country then we might as well go the full hog.  We purchased tickets into the Ascot Enclosure.  Tickets were $250 a pop which included entry, an exclusive trackside area (roughly 150m from Winning Post), drinks, cocktail food, race book and entertainment.  It’s a lot of money but money well spent in my opinion.   I know some people would be thinking that they’d never get through $250 worth of food and drink.  To be blunt, if you have that mentality then this isn’t for you.  You’re paying for an experience not for how much booze you can put away.

Photo courtesy of Perth Racing.

Photo courtesy of Perth Racing.

I was really impressed with the setup.  It had a large marquee area with a lawn section out the front.  There was an understated flashness about the place.  Importantly there was plenty of room to move about and easy access to the bar and Tote.   There was never a lineup at the toilets which from past experiences at other meetings can be a problem.  I’ve never been a fan of music during race meetings.  I mean you’re there for the racing. However I was pleasantly surprised with the band in the enclosure.  They respected the racing by stopping when the races were on, weren’t over the top loud….basically they provided a bit of extra background noise for atmosphere.  They simply knew they’re place and played their role expertly.

Photo courtesy of Perth Racing.

Photo courtesy of Perth Racing.

Seeing a race can be a problem in many corporate areas.  Not so in the Ascot Enclosure or any other area on the track.  You couldn’t miss a race if you tried in the Enclosure.  For those wanting to get up close, you could easily find a spot on the fence trackside which was between the 200 and 150m mark.  There was a big screen behind the band and also a number of smaller screens around the tote.

You couldn’t complain about the food and drinks on offer or the service.  Wait staff constantly brought around bite sized food that you could easily consume without getting yourself in a mess or importantly, putting down your drink.  My beer of choice was Matilda Bay’s Bohemian Pilsner.  It went down an absolute treat.  At meetings I’ve been to, security won’t let you take your drinks out of the area you’re in.  I thought it was a top idea for security to give you a plastic cup to pour your drink in to so you could head off to other areas.  Simple yet effective and keeps everyone happy.

Maybe it’s a Western Australian thing but I couldn’t get over how relaxed the day was.  Whether it be the lounge style seating on the lawn section of the enclosure or just how bloody easy going the people were.  There was just this cool vibe about everything.  I must commend the racegoers.  Everyone had their fair share of drinks but I did not see 1 angry person, nevermind a fight.   The same can’t be said for other meetings I’ve been to.  That was so refreshing.

Even leaving the track after a top day was easy.  There seemed to be ample taxis and public transport.  We walked out the gate and straight onto a free bus to the Crown Casino where the party continued.

Everyone associated with Perth Racing can hold their heads high for putting on an extremely well run and enjoyable race meeting.  We’ve already said we’ll be going back for the 2015 edition and hopefully bringing a crowd with us.  I couldn’t speak more highly of it and can’t wait to go back!

22/11/14 – Ascot and Doomben

cleaner

This week I’ll be taking a look at two meetings.  I’ll obviously be taking the usual look at Doomben.  I will also be running my eye over Ascot.

I’m heading over to Perth for Super Saturday and am quite excited to not only experience Western Australia’s premier race meeting but to also see one of my favourite horses in the flesh, The Cleaner.

I’m flying over Friday morning so it’s doubtful that I will be able to do any updates for scratchings on Saturday.

 Ascot

The track is rated on Thursday a Good 3 with the rail in the inside position.  There is a chance of showers Friday and Saturday but I doubt they will have an effect on the track.  I would imagine the worst case scenario would be a dead track but good looks the go.

Race 1

I’m going with the very well bred Ningbo (11) in the opening event for 2 year olds over 1000m.  This filly is out of a group 1 winning sire and a listed winning mare.  She debuts here on the back of a 4.8 length trial win.  It’s time that day was slightly better than most of the older horses over the same trip.  She draws barrier 6 for William “Pikey” Pike which should see her get a good run.  Other hopes to Snatch ‘N’ Grab (2), Lord Conrad (1) and Chanzig (4).

Race 2

Arcadia Rose (5) was a forget run 1st up.  Pikey gave her a beautiful run in transit before trying to take the rails run at the cutaway in the straight.  As can be the case at Ascot, the leader moved over blocking Arcadia Rose’s run when she appeared to be looming large.  All hope was gone at that point and she dropped out to finish 2.6 lengths back in 8th.  Once again she’ll get a great run here.  Pikey will be able to position her just behind the leaders in the box seat.  The blinkers go on for the 1st time which suggests she’ll be raring to go.  Her 2nd up record is very good with a win and 2nd from 2 2nd up efforts.  Other hopes to Gigante (9), Nardini (10) and High Limit (6).

Race 3

There should be reasonable speed in this 1200m race with a number of these liking to race forward.  I’m going with one of those that likes to do it from the front in Fuld’s Bet (7).  This lightly raced filly has looked a nice type in her 4 starts.  She’s had a freshen up after finishing 2nd in the Belgravia Stakes over 1200m and 5th in the Burgess Queen Stakes over 1400m. On each occasion she led the field up and did really well to keep fighting to the line.  From barrier 2 Peter “Knuckles” Knuckey will be able to take up the lead or box seat.  I get the feeling that many of these may be able to go with her early but she has the ability to sustain that speed for much longer.  Other hopes to Hobart Jones (1), Liberty’s Gem (6) and Django (2).

Race 4

The Carbine Club of W.A. Stakes looks a very good race.  I’m going with Real Love (11).  The way she finished off last start over 1500m was sensational.  Pikey settled her towards the back before circling 8 wide on the turn and sprinting with gusto.  Last campaign she placed in the Oaks and Derby proving that she is a class animal.  She’s drawn wide in barrier 10 but will settle back so that won’t be a massive problem.  Other hopes to Black Heart Bart (7), Miss Rose De Lago (10) and Express Service (3).

Race 5

Cool Trade (2) was on fire last campaign, winning all 5 starts.  She resumed recently for a 1.5 length 4th over this trip.  She had a slightly elevated heart rate that day.  She’s drawn barrier 11 but there doesn’t look to be too many horses that will go forward so I think Patrick Carbery can slot her in 3rd or 4th.  She has a super record at the journey and likes the track.  Other hopes to Hussy By Choice (1), My Sister Lil (7) and Vampi Lass (11).

Race 6

Disposition (1) has done nothing wrong in his 4 career starts and has the W.A. Guineas at his mercy.  He’s won all 4 in emphatic style.  Last start over 1400m here he settled back before unwinding with a strong run in the straight to fly past his rivals.  The way he finished that race suggests the 1600m here will be right up his alley.  He draws barrier 2 for Pikey which gives him options.  Other hopes to Say Geronimo (8), Delicacy (11) and Tonto (4).

Race 7

Our first Group 1 of the day – The Winterbottom Stakes.  Damian Oliver can give Angelic Light (13) the best ride here from barrier 5.  He can possie up just behind the leaders before unloading in the straight.  She is in excellent and has been close up behind the nation’s best sprinters.  Last start she went within a whisker of beating Terravista in the Manikato.  Lankan Rupee, Buffering and others were behind her.  She was less than a length behind them the start prior and 3 starts back she defeated Lankan Rupee.  Solid form for this.  Other hopes to Moment Of Change (1), Sidestep (2) and Eclair Big Bang (8).

Race 8

The Group 1 Railway Stakes is the race I’m really looking forward to.  I’ve been a fan of The Cleaner (1) for some time and can’t wait to see him do his thing in the flesh.  Besides the fact he’s one of my favourites, I think he’s up to his eyeballs in this.  He’s been racing in some top quality races in Melbourne which should place him in tremendous stead here.  Last start he went down by a bit over a length to Hucklebuck, a horse flying.  Two starts back he led the Cox Plate field up and despite getting overtaken in the straight he still fought on to only go down by 3.4 lengths.  That was a high pressure race so to hang in there is a top sign.  The 1600m is his pet trip.  He’s won 8 of 14 and placed in 3 others.  He has won up to 2150m so you know he’ll be strong at the end.  The only concern is the fact that he apparently didn’t travel well.  Word is he settled well though.  Can any of these match motors with him for the full race?  Other hopes to Alma’s Fury (4), Smokin’ Joey (3) and Respondent (16).

Race 9

The final race of the day is over 2100m.  Our starting point is the Ascot Gold Cup run here 2 weeks ago over 1800m.  I don’t think I’ve seen a situation before where the same field goes around again the following start.  15 of the 18 nominated here met in the Ascot Gold Cup.  I’m going with my old mate Pikey in the last and his ride Rebelson (7).  He was enormous in the Ascot Gold Cup when finishing 2nd by 3/4 of a length.  He took up the running at a pretty strong pace.  To still be right in the finish was a credit to his toughness.  Besides Pop Culture, he beat the rest of these by close to 3 lengths.  With a quieter ride from Pikey he’ll be charging home once again.  Other hopes to Son Of Something (14), Bedamijo (8) and Pop Culture (2).

Best Bets Ascot

Race 6 – Disposition (1)

Race 9 – Rebelson (7)

Doomben

The track as of Thursday morning was rated a slow 7 with the rail out 3m.  Warm weather is again on the cards which opens us up to the chance of late thunderstorms.  This was never more evident than Wednesday afternoon with big falls around the place.  It’s a tough call on what state the track will be in given the drying effect of hot days and potential for rain in the afternoons.   Dead-slow seems the most likely scenario.

Race 1

I’ll go with the tried and tested 2 year old here in Frequendly (1).  You can’t knock her form.  She won her trial before winning her 1st 2 race starts.  Last start she won by 8.8 lengths if you don’t mind.  She’s drawn barrier 7 but again you’d think Brad Stewart will be able to get her across into a forward position relatively easily.  Unless 1 of these 1st starters is a world beater, I can’t see her getting rolled.  Other hopes to Cookie’s Carioca (2), Meet George Jetson (7) and Patronizing (4).

Race 2

Shiraz Attack (8) really hit the line last start when winning over 1350m here 2 weeks ago.  She steps up to 1600m here which going on the way she finished off last time, won’t be a problem.  She’s drawn wide in barrier 9 but her pattern of racing is to settle back so I’m sure Robbie Fradd can find a position without working too hard.  She’s always been a horse that promised a lot, maybe she’s turned the corner and is ready to deliver.  Other hopes to Bush Aviator (1), Lock’s Legend (5) and Royal Jester (6).

Race 3

Sporting Page (1) was run down late last start when finishing 3rd to Dream Of Slips.  That horse has since won again and in Sporting Page’s favour is that it drops back from 1200m to 1110m.  It’s a distance that the horse has won 3 of 5.  From barrier 3 James Orman who claims 3kg will be able to lead or box seat.  That will give him every possible chance to get the win.  Other hopes to Four Strings (3), Glenbawn Dame (7) and Warhogg (9).

Race 4

Toby Edmonds has a few Segenhoe Thoroughbreds horses transferred to his yard from Sydney going around and I think one of them Lesley’s Choice (5) can win this no metro win race over 1110m.  This horse has form around some nice types.  Last start she finished just over 2 lengths from Spy Decoder, a horse that finished 2nd on Cup day at Flemington  Yes this is short of what she normally races however that could work in her favour.  From barrier 5 Jim Byrne can take up the lead and prove very hard to pass.  Other hopes to Harmonized Feeling (9), Treatmelikealady (10) and Foretoken (8).

Race 5

Thankfully there’s 9 races on the card.  Otherwise this BM75 over 2200m would be the 1st leg of the quaddie.  Thank god for small mercies.  Black Ninja (1) put the sword to his rivals last start when winning by 3.3 lengths over this trip.  After settling at the back, Chris Munce didn’t like the speed and took off 1000m out.  It showed a real contempt for his rivals.  This field isn’t that much tougher and he will race with less weight thanks to the claim for Travis Wolfgram.  Wolfman will be able to settle the horse around midfield or better from barrier 5.  His record at the track and distance is a perfect 3 from 3.  He’ll be hard to run down in the straight.  Other hopes to Hora Sexta (2), Paraggi (4) and Salerio (3).

Race 6

I really liked the effort of Flying Riddle (6) last time out.  He was resuming and really flew home to win comfortably over this trip.  He rises in class but drops massively in weight.  With the claim for Cassie Schmidt he’ll go from 58kg to 52.5kg.  He has a great 2nd up record never being out of the placings in 3 tries.  Barrier 8 could be a little awkward but I think Schmidt will be able to get into a forward position as the speed doesn’t look that great.  Other hopes to Seeking More (1), The Storeman (3) and Trail Boss (2).

Race 7

Freezethemillions (5) has always been a horse that promised something but has rarely delivered.  She has only won the 1 race from 11 starts.  However she has been placed in listed company and was 4th in a Group 2.  Last start she finished off nicely despite racing all over the place like a mad dog shit.  The step up to 1200m here will suit in a race where there looks to be plenty of speed.  Slick Rik McMahon can settle midfield from barrier 2 and will hopefully storm home for the win.  Other hopes to Lush Belle (6), Outback Saga (7) and Yeager (2).

Race 8

 The Keith Noud Quality looks a competitive race over 1200m.  I’m a big fan of Love Rocks (3) and that’s the way I’ll be going here.  He resumed with an easy win carrying 59.5kg and looked to have come back in great form.  He then finished 3rd at the Sunshine Coast over 1000m which wasn’t a bad effort.  The 2 that beat him, Rocky King and Adebisi are out and out speedsters and they ran track record time over the unsuitable trip.  Back to 1200m here is more to his liking and he’s undefeated in 2 starts at the trip.  He gets regular rider Anthony Allen back on and has drawn barrier 2 which will give him a beautiful run.  There is plenty of speed in this race but this guy has shown an ability to be able to niggled at and still pull away so that doesn’t worry me.  Other hopes to Benny’s Buttons (1), Rocket To Glory (4) and Primal Flight (11).

Race 9

I’m a little concerned about backing Londehero (2) here given his penchant for settling well back.  However the step up to 1350m counters those concerns.  Last start he absolutely savaged the line when running on from a clear last to go down by just a half length.  An extra 150m and a decent speed should enable him to gobble them up.  I would like Travis Wolfgram to settle a little closer than normal but the wide gate probably prevents that.  Other hopes to Cracco (3), Southerly (1) and Old Feeling (14).

Best Bets Doomben

Race 4 – Lesley’s Choice (5)

Race 6 – Flying Riddle (6)

The Frustrations Of Giving Punting Thoughts

Yesterday wasn’t the best day for The Silk.  We found 2 winners from the 7 races.  These being Dream Of Slips at $3.40 (Dividends were much better if you got on before scratchings to main rivals) and Sir Moments at $2.70.

Personally I had a fantastic day and this is where my frustration comes in.  I punt for fun so I bet on the majority of races which obviously I can’t cover here.  Along with your traditional win bets I do quaddies, placecards, megabets and 3 leg multis through the day.  It’s only a problem if you lose right?  Unfortunately that means sometimes my better results can come from somewhere outside of Brisbane.  This was never more evident than yesterday when I jagged 20% of the Sandown Quadrella and a number of 3 leggers.

I’m including my results which can be found on Punters web site and also some of my better bets.  I realise you may think that I’m a wanker for posting after the fact.  Hopefully some will think, gee maybe he knows something.

I’m always available for my thoughts on the meetings I don’t cover in The Silk so drop me a line.

results1511

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15/11/14 – Gold Coast

gcturf

It’s been a bit monotonous lately with Saturday racing at Doomben and the midweek meeting at Ipswich.  Brace yourself, we head to the Gold Coast this Saturday.

Thursday the track was rated a Good 3. There is a chance of showers later today and possibly Friday.  It will pay to monitor but with the bloody hot temperatures expected, any moisture in the track will more than likely dry out.  So a hard and fast track should be expected.  The rail is in the true position.

Race 1

We kick things off with a 900m dash for 2 year olds.  I won’t be getting involved here.  There is just too much uncertainty with over half the field on debut and unseen at trials.

Race 2

I don’t want to offend but this race would be more suitable on a Wednesday.  Very average indeed.  With limited confidence I’m going with Twisted Mountain (7).  This guy has been in the placings at Ipswich lately.  Since resuming 3 starts ago he’s been no more than a length from the winner.  From barrier 4 Chris Munce should be able to take up a forward position and get a super run.  A win mustn’t be far away.  Other hopes to Sammi Jain (12), Far Dooley (1) and Curfew (3).

Race 3

This is a very competitive sprint over 1100m.  The consistency of Miss Stash (6) interests me here.  She has been freshened up and last raced 77 days ago.  She has an excellent record when fresh with 2 wins and 2 2nds from 5 resumptions.  She draws beautifully in barrier 1 for Luke Tarrant who claims 1.5kg.  From there she’ll be able to get an excellent run just behind the quick leaders.  The blinkers go back on which should ensure she’s raring to go.  Other hopes to Adorabubble (5), Tukiyo (4) and Faith’n’Courage (7).

Race 4

Furbish (1) was highly impressive resuming last start at Scone.  He sat 3 wide the trip before easily and I mean easily put them to bed in the straight.  He won by 4.5 lengths and wouldn’t have raised a sweat.  He raced in Group company last campaign and you would think has a bit too much for these.  He does have to lump 59kg but I don’t think that’s going to stop him.  Jim Byrne takes the ride and has drawn wide but he will settle back in a race with suitable speed.  Other hopes to Golden Falls (8), Miss Cover Girl (2) and Gid Up Strop (5).

Race 5

I’m going with the local galloper Avalanches (7) in the opening leg of the quaddie.  This young stayer loves racing at his home track.  His record here over the trip is 3 wins and 2 placings from 5 starts.  He enters this on the back of a  3 length win in easier company.  He did carry 59kg that day and drops to 54.5kg here.  3 starts back he finished 2nd over the distance and in the process defeated Bingo Rose who won last weekend in town.  From barrier 5 Grant Cooksley will be able to race up on the speed.  Other hopes to Amexed (1), Vaz De Torres (9) and Arctic (2).

Race 6

There is no doubting that this race over 1200m will be run at a fast clip.   Dream Of Slips (6) has a special place in my heart after it completed a monster multi for me last time out.  Sentiment aside, this is a very good horse.  He’s won 4 of 8 career starts but it’s been his efforts since a spell that have been the highlight.  He’s won 3 of 4 and looked good winning over this trip last start.  He’s drawn barrier 11 for Bridget Grylls who claims 2kg but she’s a capable young jockey and should be able to get the horse over into a spot just behind the leaders.  Other hopes to Londehero (1), Eastern Prince (3) and Primal Flight (8).

***Confidence levels have grown considerably about the chances of Dream Of Slips after the scratchings of Londehero and Primal Flight.  I hope you got in early because the $5 won’t be available now.  For exotic players I’ll add Romanarma (8) and Darcey (13) to the other hopes***

Race 7

This is a very good race and not as clear cut as some would think.  I’m going with Sir Moments (2).  He resumed 2 weeks ago and it was hard to miss his fast finishing half a length 3rd.  He’ll be further improved 2nd up and which will make him extremely hard to hold out.  He meets Hopfgarten better at the weights from last start.  Last campaign he was electric winning the Guineas and the Daybreak Lover.  You get the feeling he is a serious racehorse and we’ll be yelling, “Ring The Bell” as Tim Bell drives him home hard.  Other hopes to Hopfgarten (3), Grayson Square (9) and Brave Ali (1).

Race 8

Gee whiz, where do go here?  This is a very tough race to finish on.  I’m going with a horse that has done the right thing by us in the past in Scarborough (3).  This guy had been racing in good form up until last start when he found the 1800m a bit of a stretch.  Prior to that he had won or placed 3 times over distances ranging from 1300-1600m.  He’ll appreciate the drop back to 1400m here after a freshen up.  He’s drawn wide in barrier 10 but he young Matt McGuren who claims 2kg should be able to get across to take up a position a few pairs back.  That should see him strong at the finish.  Other hopes to Abu Ben Adam (7), Nivali (13) and Little Bit Ditsy (12).

Best Bets

Race 4 – Furbish (1)

Race 7 – Sir Moments (2)

08/11/14 – Doomben

doomben

Well the Spring Carnival has been a humbling experience.  I’ve had 3 months of really good results and in the blink of an eye I’ve come crashing back down to Earth with Melbourne Cup day and Oaks day.  That’s punting I guess.  Back to home base at Doomben where we’ve had a fair bit of success in recent times so fingers crossed for a change of luck.

Just the 7 races to sink our teeth into.  As of Thursday the track was rated a Good 3.  The weather forecast looks alright but there is always the chance of storms this time of year so monitor that.  The rail is out just half a metre.

Race 1

We kick things off with a 2 year old race over 1050m.  There’s a few unraced with no trial info here but it’s hard to see any of them rolling The Wildman (1).  He’s had the 2 race starts for a 2nd on debut and then winning last time out.  Luke Tarrant who claims 1.5kg should be able to jump and take up a forward position from barrier 5.  He drops in weight from the last start win.  Whether you want to take a short price about him is up to you but I think he should be winning.

Race 2

Bush Aviator (5) stepped up to the 1600m last start and wasn’t that bad.  He hit the front in the straight and looked to be going on with it before weakening suddenly mid-straight but to his credit found something to fight for 4th.  He carried 58kg that day and drops to 52.5kg in this race which I think will be telling.  Luke Tarrant will be able to take up the lead relatively easily from barrier 2 and control proceedings.  With the light weight he’ll prove hard to catch.  Other hopes to Brave Ali (1), Darci Be Good (2) and Amexed (4).

***Normally I would replace the scratched horses in Brave Ali and Amexed but the race has been reduced to just 5 so I’d be naming 80% of the field as hopes.  What would be the point?***

Race 3

I’m going with Bingo Rose (5) in this week’s distance raffle.  She’s been racing in excellent form recently without winning many.  Last start she stepped up to this distance for the first time.  She finished just under a length from Darci Be Good, Volkhere and Hi Son.  There’s no stayers here of that quality.  Normally she settles back but she did race a lot closer to the action and I’d like to see Luke Tarrant apply similar tactics.  Regardless there should be ample speed in the race for her to finish over the top. Other hopes to Arctic (6), Hora Sexta (2) and Shotover River (4).

Race 4

The Storeman (4) has been close up and in the placings it’s last 2 starts.  I thought he raced really well against Rocket To Glory and Rudy.  They aren’t here which gives him the chance to get the win.  This is a drop in class.  He’s drawn barrier 1 which will enable Luke Tarrant to get to the front or take up the box seat with a fair amount of ease.  From that position he’ll be awfully hard to beat.  Other hopes to Architect (5), Vintage Moss (1) and Beach Babe (10).

Race 5

This is a very competitive race with 4 of the 10 meeting last start.  I’m continuing my bromance with Luke Tarrant here and going with Queen Of The Lochs (3).  I thought she was very good last start when winning over 1200m.  She drew wide as she does here and was able to find the front after doing a bit of work.  She then fended them off in the straight for what was a good win.  She steps up to 1350m which may raise concerns for some.  Looking back through her past starts she has won over 1400m and was narrowly defeated over 1600m in the Princess Stakes.  I have no worries about her over this trip.    As mentioned earlier she has drawn wide but I think she can get across with not a great deal of effort.  Other hopes to Discreet (1), Elusive Storm (2) and Goldslick (4).

Race 6

I won’t be making the same mistake about Abaddon (9) as I did last start again.  Wow!  He was awesome over 1350m 3 weeks ago here.  Damian Browne settled the horse towards the back of the field and made his move entering the straight.  When Browne pushed the button, Abaddon simply exploded.  He looked like he gobbled the opposition up with complete ease and had a tonne left in the tank in doing so.  There should be ample speed on here which will help him fly home over the top. Rik McMahon and not Luke Tarrant takes the ride!  Other hopes to The White Hope (1), Gundy Spirit (4) and Lock’s Legend (10).

Race 7

This is a competitive race for 3 year olds over 1110m to finish the day.  I’m going with the Steven O’Dea trained Beau Jet (7).  He’s had just the 2 starts and has won them both with relative ease.  The way he has cruised up and the pulled away suggests that the extra 110m here will not bother him.  Tim Bell will settle midfield and with plenty of speed up front he should be able to work into it nicely before finishing strongly.  Other hopes to Freezethemillions (8), Jumbo Prince (1) and I Am Boss (2).

Best Bets

Jockey Challenge – Luke Tarrant

Race 1 – The Wildman (1)

Race 6 – Abaddon (9)