13/09/14 – Doomben, Flemington and Rosehill

doomben

Doomben has understandably been copping a hiding in recent weeks since the closure of Eagle Farm.  Highlighting the vast difference between the 2 tracks is the fact that Doomben has been playing pretty well.

As at Thursday afternoon the track is rated a Good 3.  There is a chance of showers Saturday but at this stage they do not look that likely.  The rail is out 7.5m.

***Weather and Track Update Saturday morning: Plenty of cloud cover today.  There is a slight chance of showers later this afternoon. Fingers crossed they stay away.  Track rated a Good 3***

Recapping on last week it was a case of what might have been.  Our best bet at Doomben was an all up on the 1st 3 or 4 races.  Adorabubble $4.80 or so available in early markets, Hi Son $2.50 and Teronado $1.60 all saluted.  It was then up to Gun Case as a raging favourite to bring the all up home.  Unfortunately it couldn’t get the job done as it suffered an injury.  Disappointing stuff.  We also had 4 winners at Caulfield.

Race 1

Our Boy Nicholas (2) should get us away to a winning start.  This guy has been super since arriving from Sydney.  He’s won all 3 starts in decent fashion.  His last 2 starts have been here at this trip and on each occasion he has shown a turn of foot in the straight that has been unmatched by his rivals.  Meets a similar field here and only goes up 1kg so quite rightly he has been installed as a short favourite.  Other hopes to Itchintowin (8), Big Decision (3) and What About Me (6).

Race 2

Solid Domani, Life At Sea and Dansolei ran 1st,2nd and 3rd last time they met.  Solid Domani carries 2kg here and last time out the other 2 were taking ground off it at the end of the 1350m.  I was on Life At Sea (at $17) then but I’m jumping ship to Dansolei (9) this time around.  This filly missed the start quite badly last start and as a result raced well back.  On straightening she really powered home and only went down by a narrow margin.  With a better gate here and a better start, she’ll prove very hard to hold out.  Other hopes to Life At Sea (1), Solid Domani (3) and Hijack Hussy (4).

Race 3

There’s very few horses here that have form around this distance range.  In fact a lot are stepping up to this trip and to be honest, look suspect.  Jopa (6) is one horse that statement certainly doesn’t apply to.  This guy simply loves the 1350m at Doomben.  In 4 starts over the trip at the track he ‘s won 2 and placed 3rd in another.  Last start he powered through the heavy going to win.  He’s drawn barrier 5 which should enable Luke Tarrant to give him a great run.  Tarrant claims 2kg leaving the horse with just 52kg to carry.  Other hopes to Jefferson Park (4), Star Sammy (3) and Platinum State (7).

Race 4

Joseph Pride won’t be bringing Diamond Oasis (8) up from Sydney for a hair cut.  This guy is understandably a short quote and may only a multi inclusion prospect.  He resumed last start with a win on heavy going at Randwick.  His 2nd up record is a good one with a win and a 2nd from 3 starts.  He has raced competitively in Group races.  Barrier 4 should enable Glen Colless to give the horse a top run.  He gets in with 54.5kg which is a treat when you have a look at the handicapper ratings and see that the top weight gives this guy 4.5kg and is 9 points worse.  Other hopes to Senta De Noche (7), State Of The Wealth (5) and Ike’s Legacy (10).

Race 5

 There is speed aplenty in this 1050m scamper.  I’m going with the Kris Lees trained Terra Amata (3).  This mare has raced well since joining the Lees stable 2 starts ago.  She resumed with a nose 2nd in the Kirby at Grafton before finishing 5th at Rosehill a bit over a month ago.  On that occasion she was racing the boys and drops back to fillies and mares here.  She also uncharacteristically lead so her gassing out late was forgivable and expected.  From barrier 3 Yusuke Ichikawa who claims 3kg can take a sit behind the hot pace and finish off strongly.  The freshen up and drop in distance will be to her liking.  Other hopes to Shinji (12), Epsilon (8) and Shapin Lady (10).

Race 6

Where’s a Hi Son when you need him?  Gee this week’s distance race is a doozy.  With little confidence I’m going with Uno Five (3).  Since stepping up in distance this guy has really improved.  He won last start over 2100m here which followed a 2nd over the same trip.  These races are a deadset dartboard job and this guy offers some sort of consistency.  James Orman claims 3kg which will be helpful to his cause.  Other hopes to Lee Ho Fook (13), Red Cent (15) and Rock Musician (4).  I wouldn’t be wasting too much time to be honest on this race.

Race 7

Scarborough (3) has been finishing strongly since resuming 2 starts ago.  Those were over 1300m and 1350m and he now rises to 1650m which he’ll appreciate.  His record over the trip is 3 wins from 4.   He’ll be able to settle a bit closer to the action than he has and gets a nice relief with apprentice Matt McGuren claiming 3kg.  With a reasonable speed set, this guy will be steaming home.  Other hopes to Tints (6), Bernitchy (8) and Forest Way (1).

Race 8

Harada Bay (6) was terrific last start when finishing strongly for 3rd behind Jetset Lad and Saluter.  It was 35 days between runs so for him to do what he did there was definitely an indicator to get on next start.  He is relatively unknown at this trip but going by the way he finds the line at 1400m, I’m prepared to say he’ll like it.   Races well at the track.  Other hopes to Epic (1), Gangster’s Choice (8) and Trakstar (10).

Best Bets

Race 1 – Our Boy Nicholas (2)

Race 2 – Dansolei (9)

Race 4 – Diamond Oasis (8)

An all up of the 3 may be a better option given all 3 will start short.

Flemington

Race 1 – Traveston Girl (6)

Race 2 – Livery (12)

Race 3 – Prince Of Penzance (3)

Race 4 – Chivalry (2)

Race 5 – Commanding Jewel (1)

Race 6 – Brazen Beau (2)

Race 7 – Dissident (9)

Race 8 – Charlie Boy (11)

Race 9 – Our Hand Of Faith (13)

 

Rosehill

Race 1 – Sensualism (6)

Race 2 – Cocktail Time (5)

Race 3 – Turquoise King (5)

Race 4 – Ninth Legion (2)

Race 5 – Greatwood (5)

Race 6 – Catkins (1)

Race 7 – Hallowed Crown (3)

Race 8 – Reflectance (5)

06/09/14 – Doomben, Moonee Valley and Randwick

Last week saw the first time inclusion of my selections for Melbourne and Sydney metro meetings.  We had a bit of success with the likes of Stipulate, Chivalry and Rugged Cross winning so I thought I would continue to include these Saturday meetings through Spring.

The focus will remain on Brisbane where we see a perfect day at Doomben.  The weather is super and the track is rated a good 3.  The rail is out 5.5m.

***Weather and Track update Saturday morning: Fine and clear skies.  Track remains a good 3***

Doomben

Race 1

Adorabubble (4) gets her favoured good ground here and will prove hard to catch.  She draws barrier 10 but should be able to get to the front or box seats with a reasonable amount of ease.  Jockey Bridget Grylls claims 3kg and the horse will carry the postage stamp weight of 51.5kg.  This is her pet trip as shown by her 75% win record.  I thought her efforts on heavy going in her past 2 starts were very good.  Other hopes to Avaladyluck (2), Kalandula (5) and Tambo’s Jewel (3).

Race 2

There looks to be limited chances in this week’s distance race.  Fingers crossed that we can keep the darts away.  Third time’s the charm for Hi Son (2).  He has been runner up to Volkhere in his past 2 starts but I think he gets conditions to suit to turn the tables.  After the claims for both jockeys, Hi Son meets Volkhere at the same weight.  In his past few he’s carried around 4kg more.  Last start he was 2.3 lengths back on heavy going which he dislikes.  Back on good ground and with ample speed in front, he’ll prove hard to hold out.  Other hopes to Volkhere (1), Angusroy(5) and Markout (8).

Race 3

Teronado (9) is a short price and for good reason.  If we simply look at the handicapper’s ratings this guy is rated 89 and carries 54.5kg.  Meanwhile we have horses carrying 59kg who are rated a lot less than 89.  There’s no doubting this guy has a class edge as seen by his group 1 results.  He resumed recently over 1200m and ran a length 2nd to You Did What which really made a statement winning here last week.  The step up to 1640m here 2nd up will be greatly appreciatedly.  I don’t think we’ll see Chris Munce settle so far back from barrier 1.  Other hopes to Venture On (4), Oak ‘N’ Arthur (5) and Gully Command (1).

Race 4

I’ll admit that I was caught out last start with Gun Case (5).  In my defense, I thought it was a bit silly chasing something at such short odds.  However I was made to look like I had egg on my face when it simply toyed with it’s opponents in the wet and won by 3.3 lengths.  It wasn’t tested and I think we’ll see Gun Case continue on it’s merry way here.  Other hopes to Jefferson Park (1), More Than Money (8) and Lyric (3).

Race 5

I’m going with one here at super odds.  Currently around the $17 mark is the Bryan Dais trained Melanya (8).  This filly resumed recently with a 4.8 length win at Murwillumbah.  It showed promise in it’s initial campaign but I think it’s come back a much better horse.  This horse is highly rated by the stable and has been nominated for the Group 1 Schweppes Thousand Guineas.  It needs to stand up here for that to happen.  She has drawn wide in barrier 11 but the speed map suggests Larry Cassidy will be able to slot in just off a strong pace.  Other hopes to Lucky Tom (3), Aimee (1) and Upstart Pride (5).

Race 6

This is a very open race.  I’m going to stick with one that did us a favour last time Great Game (10).  This former Victorian has had 2 starts now in Queensland for Ben Currie.   It was unlucky 1st up when running a narrow 3rd.  It then won a class 4.  This is a step up in class but I just don’t feel that it’s overly strong.  Great Game has drawn barrier 2 which will enable jockey Ryan Wiggins to get a good run behind a pretty hot speed.  Other hopes to Under The Hat (7), Heza Jetsetter (4) and Written Above All (14).

***Top pick Great Game has been scratched.  I’ll put Under The Hat (7) on top with limited confidence.  Avalanches (13) comes in for exotic players***

Race 7

Cut cats, last week’s wages, enter any applicable saying here referring to speed.  You can be assured that the speed will be well and truly on here in this 1020m scamper.  I’m going with Thinkhesaurus (3).  This guy has won his past 2 starts in nice fashion.  He’s a real speedster and will need to be from barrier 15.  We’ll know fairly early on the chances of this bloke as if Ruby Ride can’t get him across easily and he races wide, we’re shot.  However I’m prepared to say the horse has the goods to get the job done.  I like how in his past 2 starts he’s sped out to lead and then put a gap on them in the straight.  Other hopes to Gojo Mimo (10), Lucky Meteor (6) and Phoenix Force (13).

Race 8

We finish with an open sprint and I think the Tony Gollan trained Rocket To Glory (2) is well placed.  He resumes here on the back of a nice trial where he was narrowly nutted by Star Sammy.  He races well fresh despite only winning 1 of 5.  He gets the services of Damian Browne which is a massive plus.  From barrier 8 Browne will be able to get to the front and control proceedings.  When he’s able to do that, this horse is tough to beat.  Solid record over the trip.  Other hopes to Final Crescendo (13), Falino (3) and Theft (8).

 

Best Bets Doomben

Get in early all up –  Race 1 – Adorabubble (4)

Race 3 – Teronado (9)

Race 4 – Gun Case (5)

Throw in Hi Son in race 2 if you’re feeling lucky.

 

Moonee Valley

Race 1 – Count Encosta (7)

Race 2 – Aliyana (4)

Race 3 – Caveka (2)

Race 4 – Wrotham Heath (4)

Race 5 – Lankan Rupee (1)

Race 6 – Pickin’ Time (10)

Race 7 – The Cleaner (4)

Race 8 – St Jean (10)

Race 9 – Trust In A Gust (13)

 

Randwick

Race 1 – Foreign Prince (4)

Race 2 – Grand Marshal (4)

Race 3 – Earthquake (1)

Race 4 – Washington Heights (2)

Race 5 – Royal Descent (9)

Race 6 – Target In Sight (8)

Race 7 – Tiger Tees (1)

Race 8 – Rock Sturdy (1)

 

 

30/08/14 – Doomben, Rosehill and Caulfield

doomben

 Racing from Brisbane this Saturday comes to us from Doomben.  This will be the case more often than not with the Eagle Farm revamp.  Last Saturday here we raced on a heavy surface and the track held up quite well.  Our 2 best bets saluted and if you got on prior to Saturday you were treated to a nice price about Volkhere.

As at Thursday morning the track is rated a heavy 8.  That’s surprising given the rain that fell Wednesday.  It’s expected to clear up and you would suspect that the track should return to possibly a dead 5 surface by the first race Saturday.  The rail is out 3.5m.

***Weather and Track Update: Super day on the cards with a top of 25 and sunny skies.  Track rated a dead 5 but you would think that will be upgraded.***

Before I get into Saturday’s card, I’ll touch on Wednesday’s Ipswich meeting where we found 5 winners from the 8 races.  The best paying $7.50.  Not a bad effort considering how traditionally Ipswich is a difficult track to find a winner.

Race 1

Life At Sea (2) from the Toby Edmonds stable has raced well since a spell.  1st up he broke his maiden status with a 1.5 length win at Ipswich.  He then finished a length 2nd at this track and trip.  From gate 3 jockey Matt McGuren should be able to position the horse in a prime position.  He also claims 3kg which drops the horse 3.5kg from last start.  Currently around the $15 mark, I think that’s definitely worth having a crack at.  Other hopes to Dansolei (11), Shadowside (1) and Sambuca Shot (3).

Race 2

Get your darts out people.  It’s the weekly distance race.  I’m going with Novikov (4) from the Tony Crane yard.  This guy has won his past 2 starts, showing a clean set of heals in the straight in both.  Last start over 2100m he really looked like he appreciated the extra metres.  This race is no harder so I expect him to run well for Larry Cassidy.  Other hopes to Leonardo Express (1), Strategic Shadow (10) and Heater (3).

Race 3

Fine Bubbles (1) saluted for Silk supporters last start when it won over 1400m.  It drops back to 1200m here after a 21 day break (the same sized break it had before winning last time).  I don’t see that as a problem as it was competitive with some handy types in Sydney.  The horse that ran 2nd last start Rebel Dancer won last weekend.  Rises 0.5kg with Jim Byrne replacing Damian Browne which I don’t see as a negative.  It has drawn out in barrier 10 but Byrne shouldn’t too much drama finding a position by either going forward or settling midfield.  Other hopes to Pretty Face (6), Shapin Lady (5) and Miss Stash (2).

Race 4

Harada Bay (6) simply loves this track and distance.  He is undefeated in the 2 starts he’s had here.  He was set to run last Saturday but was scratched due to the wet weather.  That could work to his advantage here as he races at his best when on the fresh side.  He’s drawn barrier 2 for Jimmy Byrne and that should provide the horse with a super run to allow him to fly over the top of them.  Other hopes to Saluter (4), Jetset Lad (2) and Motorised (5).

Race 5

Our Boy Nicholas (4) was outstanding last start when he stormed home to win by 2 lengths with 3rd a further 2.5 lengths back.  That was at this track and over this trip.  It is a step up in grade but I think he’s up to it.  He draws barrier 1 for Jimmy Byrne which will enable him to settle a lot closer than he has in past outings.  That could be ominous for those behind him looking to make up ground.  Other hopes to Big Decision (2), Tints (11) and Itchintowin (12).

Race 6

This looks to be a very open race.  Barriers will play a big role in the final outcome.  Vaz De Torres (7) draws barrier 4 for Robbie Fradd and I can see the South African making the absolute most of that.  He’ll be able to park up close just off the speed whereas other leading hopes will either have to go harder earlier or pull back from their bad draws.  Last start this horse came with a powerful finish to win here over this trip.  The 1615m is his preferred journey as shown by his record of 3 wins from 6.  2 from 3 at the track and trip.  Will appreciate the sting out of the track.  Other hopes to Bernitchy (11), Pasquinel (2) and Red Hot Dazzler (10).

Race 7

The class runner in this race is Kingdoms (1).  For that he’s been lumped with 59kg which at first glance looks a fair whack.  However when you look at what his rivals have been allocated and their respective class levels, then it doesn’t seem as bad.  This guy is Group 1,2 and 3 placed with listed wins.  He’s been nominated for the Cups and Cox Plate which you can’t ever foresee for the rest of this field.  He’s been freshened up after 2 good runs in Brisbane where he won the Centenary Mile fresh and then ran 2nd to Jetset Lad in the Tatt’s Mile here.  He races well on the fresh side and should get the favours from barrier 4 for Larry Cassidy.  Other hopes to Ferment (4), Trakstar (8) and Billy Aucash (6).

Race 8

You Did What (6) sounds like a question I’d be asked after a big night on the piss.  Unlike me, he won’t have the wobbly boots on and should show these a clean set of heals.  This guy has been racing in really good form of late and that was never more apparent than when he won last start defeating Teronado and Avaladyluck over this trip.  After drawing wide and being slow away he settled back before coming over the top.  He’s drawn much better here in barrier 3 and jockey Luke Tarrant will be able to park the horse a little closer.  With the claim for Tarrant he will carry even less than he did last start for winning a similar strength race.  Other hopes to Star Sammy (1), Gundy Spirit (13) and Cleaver (7).

Best Bets

Race 5 – Our Boy Nicholas (4)

Race 7 – Kingdoms (1)

Race 8 – You Did What (6)

***I have been asked for Sydney and Melbourne selections recently so here’s the way I’ll be going for those meetings today:

Rosehill

Race 1 – Burning Passion (2)

Race 2 – Senta Helga (8)

Race 3 – Pentometer (2)

Race 4 – Miss Alibi (7)

Race 5 – Rugged Cross (10)

Race 6 – Almalad (1)

Race 7 – Bonfire (3)

Race 8 – Murder Of Crows (11)

Caulfield

Race 1 – Veuvelicious (1)

Race 2 – Are There Any (3)

Race 3 – Text’n Hurley (12)

Race 4 – By The Grace (4)

Race 5 – Vain Queen (15)

Race 6 – Chivalry (9)

Race 7 – A Time For Julia (6)

Race 8 – Messene (7)

Race 9 – Stipulate (6)

23/08/14 – Doomben

doomben

I was reluctant to do the form for this meeting.  Not because I don’t want to get involved but because weather forecasts suggest plenty of rain meaning plenty of scratchings and possibly even an abandonment.   However Doomben handles rain much better than Eagle Farm so I’ll be getting involved (fingers crossed the meeting goes ahead!).

The track is currently rated a dead 4 as at Thursday afternoon.  However as previously stated, heavy rain looks to set in tomorrow and continue right through to Saturday.  Therefore it’s with reasonable confidence that I say that the track will be heavy.

I have a feeling that come Saturday morning, there will be a multitude of scratchings.  For that reason I will only be including my tips (top pick in bold with 3 other horses for the exotics) and not doing a write up.  I’m sure you can fill in the blanks there….handles a wet track!

Race 1

1. Lucky Tom (1) 

2. Hijack Hussy (5)

3. Pienkna (6)

4. Upstart Pride (4)

Race 2

1. Florida Fellow (1)

2. Gun Case (10)

3. All Taken (5) Scratched

4. It’s A Saga (7)

Race 3

1. Lanieri (3)

2. Villamill (1)

3. Quietly Confident (7)

4. Doughty (5)

Race 4

1. Volkhere (5)

2. Darci Be Good (2)

3. Freton (7) Scratched

4. Belltone (1)

Race 5

1. Jefferson Park (9)

2. Mr Favulous (3)

3. Falino (2) Scratched

4. Playitstraight (7)

Race 6

1. Cracco (1)

2. Gully Command (5)

3. Forest Way (2)

4. Not Too Sure (8)

Race 7

1. Jet Down On It (7)

2. Prettyfamous (9)

3. Tulla Touch (12)

4. Maroney Avenue (4)

Race 8

1. Ms Ba Bella (3)

2. Fine Bubbles (1) Scratched

3. Rebel Dancer (2)

4. Itchintowin (10)

Race 9

1. Harada Bay (2) Scratched

2. Flamboyer (5)

3. Romanarma (6)

4. Jopa (4)

BEST BETS

Race 3 – Lanieri (3)

Race 4 – Volkhere (5)

Race 9 – Harada Bay (2) Scratched

20/08/14 – Eagle Farm

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With this being the last meeting at Eagle Farm for some time, it would be remiss of me not to get involved.  It’s about time the track was fixed and we don’t have to look any further back than last Saturday to see why!

Race 1 – Tear It Up (1)

Race 2 – Elizondo (4)

Race 3 – Cynisca (1)

Race 4 – Nudgee (2)

Race 5 – Kalandula (2)

Race 6 – Great Game (3)

Race 7 – Kingtantes (2)

Race 8 – Heater (6)

Race 9 – Teronado (11)