01/11/14 – Flemington and Rosehill

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Flemington 

Race 1 – Wandjina (3)

Race 2 – Abduction (3)

Race 3 – Hucklebuck (4)

Race 4 – Rubick (5)

Race 5 – Caravan Rolls On (2)

Race 6 – He’s Your Man (8)

Race 7 – Hampton Court (1)

Race 8 – May’s Dream (4)

Race 9 – Deep Field (6)

 

Rosehill

Race 1 – Brooklyn (1)

Race 2 – Mohave (1)

Race 3 – Our Boy Malachi (4)

Race 4 – Malice (7)

Race 5 – Exceleine (9)

Race 6 – Frespanol (6)

Race 7 – Rare Fragrance (6)

Race 8 – Masterstroke (9)

01/11/14 – Doomben

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We saw them pretty well last Saturday at Doomben with 4 winners found in the 7 races looked at.   That equated to a 83% POT.  We’ll be looking to replicate that or better on Derby Day.   Selections for that meeting will be added Friday night but first I’ll take a look at the locals.

The track as of Thursday morning is rated a Dead 4.  Warm weather with a slight chance of showers are predicted over the coming days.  I dare say the track will be a Good 3 on race day.  The rail is out 7m which should continue the run of on pace winners.  I’ve got no complaints with that as it’s been very kind to us in recent meetings.

Race 1

As is often the case at this time of year, we kick off with a 2 year old maiden for colts and geldings.  I’ll be on The Wildman (1) again.  In his debut run he was very good after suffering multiple setbacks.  He was slow away which forced Tegan Harrison to settle towards the back.  With a cleaner getaway and coming barrier 3, you’d expect the horse to settle much closer. The major setback occurred in the run home.  When making her move, Harrison ran into the back of a wall of horses before finally getting out.  Once she did, the horse flew to the line to go down by just a half head.  Other hopes to Wicked Investment (7), Patronizing (5) and  My Cousin Rhett (4).

Race 2

Flying Riddle (1) has been lumped with 61kg but will carry 58kg after the claim for Cassie Schmidt.  Schmidt has a great record on this horse winning 4 of 6.  This horse resumes here but was in fine form prior to the spell with 3 wins on the trot.  The last 2 were won by 3 lengths and defeated Lenny’s Choice.  He warmed up for this with a 6 length trial win.  From barrier 6 Schmidt should be able to sit 3rd or 4th in the run.  Other hopes to Substation (4), Travieso (7) and Bahsa (2).

Race 3

I’m going with the consistency of Natural Dancer (5).  Before I get into the reasons for that, I’d like to touch on Some Call Her Wild (7).  What do we make of her?  She is the class runner here and could come out and blow them away.  However she’s rocks or diamonds.  She resumes here for a new trainer and the distance is short of her preferred range. I’m taking her on but an very wary.  Back to Natural Dancer.  She drops back to 1050m here which will be to her liking.  She’s been racing in much tougher races than this recently and has been able to hold her head up.  Last start she sat up on the speed and was only run down late by Londehero and Faith’n’courage.  From barrier 5 she’ll be able to do a similar thing and the 60 less metres could see her hold on.  Other hopes to Some Call Her Wild (7), Young Fun (3) and Eliazar (6).

Race 4

Two weeks ago What About Me (1) grabbed the cash for us as a best bet.  I’m sticking fat with him here.  He gets similar conditions to that last start win.  There isn’t a great deal of speed which will allow James Orman to take the box seat position.  He’ll then be able to power home.  Has form around the flying Grayson Square.  Other hopes to Lucky Black (5), Vaz De Torres (6) and On The Deck (2).

Race 5

Rob Heathcote’s Punta Norte (3) has really come back in good style as a 3 year old.  He won 2 trials before winning his maiden and a class 1 at the Sunshine Coast.  He is certainly ready for Saturday racing.  He steps up to 1640m here which will suit.  His breeding suggests that but also the way he finished off last time over 1400m.  He won by 2.3 lengths and looked untested to me.  He will get a great run on the speed for Tim Bell from barrier 5.  We’ll be yelling “Ring That Bell” as he charges to the line.  Other hopes to Walk To The Bar (1), Duporth Jack (12) and Chillin With Dylan (10).

Race 6

 This is a very even race.  I’m going against the on pace rule here so I hope I don’t end up with egg on my face.  Lauterbrunnen (4) tends to get back in his races.  However he has an outstanding turn of foot and run to the line.  Last start at the Sunshine Coast he settled worse than midfield before casually cruising past them in the straight to win by 2.3 lengths.  That was class 3 company and this is a step up but the ease of the win suggests he’s capable of handling it.  Draws barrier 4 for Bridget Grylls who claims 2kg.  From that gate Grylls may be able to settle a little closer than normal.  Regardless, he’ll be hitting the line hard.  Other hopes to Speedy Sam (13), Old Feeling (10) and Itchintowin (8).

Race 7

I thought Rudy (11) was very good 1st up.  He took up a position a few back from the flying Rocket To Glory.  I thought Rudy was gone about 200m out but then lifted to storm home and go down by just half a length.  He steps up to 1350m here which looks ideal.  He is undefeated in 3 2nd up runs.  From barrier 4 Luke Tarrant he claims 1.5kg can take up a prominent position a pair or 2 back.  Other hopes to Hopfgarten (7), Sir Moments (3) and Brave Ali (2).

Race 8

At first look I didn’t think Londehero (5) was that great 1st up.  Yes he loomed up in the straight but I felt Faith’n’Courage found more when they drew level.  However given time to think about it, it wasn’t a bad effort.  The trip was less than his ideal range and he doesn’t normally go that well 1st up.  His 2nd up record is a different story.  He has won 2 from 4 and was placed in the other 2.  He also loves the 12o0m as shown by the fact he’s won 4 from 6.  He gets Travis Wolfgram  in the saddle who claims 2kg.  There is plenty of speed in this for him to settle midfield and storm home.  No pressure Wolfman!  Other hopes to Comacina (9), Beatniks (12) and Bushy (2).

Best Bets

Race  4 – What About Me (1)

Race 7 – Rudy (11)

25/10/14 – Doomben, Moonee Valley and Rosehill

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The racing world’s eye will be firmly cast on Moonee Valley this weekend for the Manikato on Friday night and the Cox Plate Saturday.  While obviously these deserve attention, we still have racing in Brisbane that warrants involvement.

Doomben is currently rated a  Good 3 and should remain that way with fine weather predicted.  There is a slight chance of a shower or storm Saturday but that shouldn’t be till after racing has finished.  The rail is out 1m.  Looks a challenging card.

Doomben

Race 1

Tough to gather a feel for the opening race for 2 year olds with so many 1st starters who haven’t had a trial.  I couldn’t possibly give a push here.  I see $1.40 offered for Frequendly…phuleeeez.

Race 2

The last month or so has been good for the Saturday distance race.  The likes of Hi Son and Volkhere have made it a race you could have some confidence betting in.  Well that’s not the case this week. We’re back to the BM75 Dartboard Stakes where it helps to be Phil “The Power” Taylor to find the winner.  Paraggi (11) finished 2nd by a short 1/2 head in his debut for Liam Birchley.  This guy at times raced quite well in Victoria against some nice types.  He finished 2nd to Ali Vital here as a 3 year old over this trip.  In an ordinary race, he may have a slight class edge.  Other hopes to Colour Charge (4), Highly Gentle (3) and Danehill Native (7).

Race 3

Tukiyo (4) looks good value (as much as $15 on Bet365 Thursday).  She resumes here and has a great record 1st up with 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 resumptions.  Last campaign she was racing against some nice types such as Srikandi and Tiger Tees.  She was far from disgraced.  From barrier 4 Jimmy Byrne can get a great run on the speed.  Other hopes to Discreet (1), Elusive Storm (2) and Queen Of The Lochs (3).

Race 4

I’m looking forward to seeing the return of speed machine Love Rocks (1).  He created great excitement late last year with the way he went about things.  He has been awarded 62.5kg but will get some relief with James Orman 3kg.  I don’t think that will be enough to stop him.  He draws barrier 4 and you would think Orman will just ping the gates, lead and win.  His last trial in preparation for this was  4.8 length win over Tukiyo who we’ll see go around in the previous.  Other hopes to Kempelly (3), Prettyfamous (7) and Vintage Moss (2).

Race 5

I thought the run of Amizade (4) was the best of those that ran around here over 1110m a fortnight ago.  Yes that sounds an obvious statement given she won by 2.3 lengths.  What impressed me was the way she did it at both ends.  She pushed forward to lead before finding plenty in the straight.  She rises in weight and distance here but from the inside draw I think Bridget Grylls can do the same thing.  The run of Miss Cover Girl caught the eye but I just can’t have a horse that gets so far back, particularly with how Doomben has been playing recently.  I see a similar situation to the What About Me and Sea Red race last week where we found What About Me at $7.50.  Other hopes to Miss Cover Girl (3), Freezethemillions (6) and Deuced (5).

Race 6

This is a competitive race over 1600m.  Grayson Square (4) has been racing very well this campaign.  He has won his past 2 over 1400m and 1350m.  This is a step up in distance but I believe he can handle it.  He has placed in 2 previous starts over the trip.  I felt the way he picked up in the straight last start also indicates the extra couple of hundred metres won’t hurt.  From barrier 5 Travis Wolfgram who claims 2kg can go forward to either lead or box seat.  Other hopes to Arctic (3), Danesiri (7) and Shotover River (9).

Race 7

The Gregory Hickman trained Lyric (8) has put in 2 very good efforts since coming up to Brisbane recently.  In his 1st start here he stormed home to beat Grayson Square over 1200m.  He then finished 2nd to Gojo Mimo when leaders were greatly advantaged.  He steps up to 1350m here for the 1st time which does raise concerns.  However the way he has finished off his past 2 races, I feel that it won’t be a problem.  He’s drawn barrier 3 which should see Michael Cahill give the horse a super run in the box seat.  Other hopes to Mishani Stealth (4), Gundy Spirit (11) and Just A Perla (10).

Race 8

A field of 16 where there is no shortage of speed makes this a very interesting last race.  I was quite confident about the chances of Dream Of Slips (13) last time out but it disappointed a tad for 4th.  I’m prepared to give it another go as it was dominant in the 2 starts prior.  Where luck could play a large role in the outcome for a lot of these, this guy has drawn barrier 1 which will enable Bridget Grylls to place the horse in a forward position to eliminate to an extent the need for luck.  Carries just 52kg after the claim.  Other hopes to Power Supply (4), Covert Chamour (2) and Rock Royalty (7).

Best Bet Doomben

Race  4 – Love Rocks (1)

Apologies for stating the obvious here.  I’d love to give a couple of best bets that were at least $3 but this really looks an open card and I can’t declare any more than 1 with confidence.

Moonee Valley

Race 1 – Absolutely no interest here

Race 2 – Straight Gold (5)

Race 3 – Lumosty (1)

Race 4 – Galaxy Pegasus (10)

Race 5 – Au Revoir (4)

Race 6 – Hooked (6)

Race 7 – Atmosphere (10)

Race 8 – Fawkner (2)

Race 9 – Ava’s Delight (6)

 

Rosehill

Race 1 – Redoutable Heart (3)

Race 2 – Furnaces (5)

Race 3 – Grand Marshal (6)

Race 4 – Monton (2)

Race 5 – Transfers (2)

Race 6 – Atmospherical (10)

Race 7 – Underestimation (12)

Race 8 – Boss Lane (10)

22/10/14 – Ipswich

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We return to Ipswich for the midweek meeting.  We have a Good 3 track and with partly cloudy weather it will stay that way.  The rail is out 3m.  There are some nice types resuming that will create some interest.

Race 1

Maiden stayers test over 2150m doesn’t really fill one with enthusiasm or confidence.  This motley crew have combined for 145 starts and still remain maidens.  The best bet here would be to not bet.  However if you’re desperate then Bella Fortuna (8) is an each way proposition.  Has only placed in 3 of 17 starts but did put in a spirited showing here last start.  She finished 2nd over this trip after racing wide for the 1st 1000m before pushing forward.  I thought she showed a bit of fight to narrowly go down after a less than ideal run.  Hardest to beat Beldan (1).

Race 2

Whiskey Allround (1) resumes here for Tony Gollan and you would suspect he’ll be too strong for this lot.  Has 59kg to contend with but draws nicely in barrier 2.  This time last year he was matching motors with the likes of Enquare and Splendora.  Has won 3 from 5 over this trip.

Race 3

A couple of nice 1st starters debut here.  I’m going with Liam Birchley’s Choivision (2).  This colt has looked good in 2 trial wins and gets the services of Chris Munce.  He should be able to give the horse a decent run from barrier 6.  Hardest to beat Stay In Vegas (4).

***Choivision has been scratched.  Following similar reasoning, Stay In Vegas (4) becomes our top pick.  Undefeated in 2 trials.***

Race 4

Five of these faced off against each other here 2 weeks ago.  King Of The Castle (6) finished the best of those in 2nd place.  He will meet them better at the weights here thanks to the 3kg claim for Cassie Schmidt.  He’s drawn barrier 9 but should be able to cross if he starts like he did last start.  The big improver could be Senor Carlos (7) who was only 2.9 lengths back in that race.  He was on debut and didn’t seem to have a great deal of luck.  Go On Red (4) and Buckin The Blues (2) also have their hopes.

Race 5

Chariot Of Gold (1) enters this race in great form.  He has been in the quinella his past 4 starts but it’s his last start 2nd that gets me in.  Over this trip he led them up with Lucky Black in close attendance.  Those 2 fought it out in the straight with COG only going down by a nose.  That form line stacks up.  Lucky Black won with ease on Sunday at the Sunshine Coast.  Lucky Black narrowly went down to Abaddon the start prior and that horse was dominant Saturday in town.  Other hopes to Colony (4), Jack Be Quick (6) and One More Knight (5).

Race 6

Sometimes you can tend to look too much into race.  Splendora (1) is the class runner in the race having contested Group races last campaign.  Yes she’ll get back which isn’t ideal at Ipswich.  However there doesn’t appear to be that much opposition here and I think she’ll have too much for them in the straight.  She may not settle that far back anyway given the amount of speed in the race.  Her record over the trip is very good with 3 wins and 2 2nds from 8 starts.

Race 7

Plenty of speed in this competitive class 3 over 1350m.  I’m going with the lightly raced Zietta (6).  She’s only had the 2 starts but has been impressive in winning both by big margins.  She’s drawn wide here in barrier 10 but has shown an ability to get out of the gates well.  I would think she’ll be able to cross for Beau Appo to sit in the first 3.  This is her acid test stepping up from a class 1 to a class 3 but I think she’s up to it.  Other hopes to Buon Auspicio (2), Satirical Lass (3) and Water Kiss (5).

18/10/14 – Doomben, Caulfield and Randwick

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All attention this Saturday will be focused on Caulfield for the running of the Caulfield Cup.  Rightly so but we still have meetings all around the country that need attention and I’ll be taking my usual look at Doomben and then including tips for Melbourne and Sydney.

We had a good day at Doomben last Saturday with 4 winners found on the 8 race card which produced a 118% POT.  This Saturday the track is currently rated a Good 3 with the rail out 6m.  There is a chance of showers but I would doubt the track will get any worse than dead.

Doomben

Race 1

The 2 year olds kick us of over 1050m.  I’m going with the Mick Mair first starter The Wildman (5).  This guy won his trial at the Sunshine Coast by 3.3 lengths in nice style.  Falchion was 5.7 lengths behind him in that trial and that horse ran 2nd on debut behind Hot Snippety.  From barrier 5 Tegan Harrison should be able to give the horse a nice run.  As is the case with all these 2 year old races with limited form, buyer beware.  Other hopes to Madotti (6), Lady Sniper (8) and Military Miss (10).

Race 2

I thought the run of Falzini (1) was a good effort last start.  He sat up on the speed with Thief Of Hearts and managed to fight strongly to finish a length off the winner for 2nd.  That was over 1400m and he steps up to 1600m here but what he has in his favour is a lack of speed.  Matt McGuren who claims 2kg should be able to dictate terms.  If there’s a leader bias like last week then he’ll be even tougher to get past.  All bar his 2nd race start have been very good efforts.  Other hopes to Rogali (3), First Draft (6) and Amajill (4).

Race 3

There looks to be a distinct lack of speed in this race which could cruel the chances of many of these.  One horse that can make it’s own luck by going forward is What About Me (1).  Jockey James Orman who claims 3kg can take up a prominent position either in the lead or in the box seat from barrier 2.  He’s had 2 starts since a long spell and both have been full of merit.  Last start he finished 2nd behind Grayson Square over 1400m who has since won again.  The step up to 1640m here will suit.  Likes the sting out of the ground.  Other hopes to Sea Red (6), Busselton (8) and Vaz De Torres (5).

Race 4

The weekly distance race over 2040m sees yet another clash between Hi Son and Volkhere.  Do we simply just take them in the quinella again?  They have run 1,2 the past 5 times.  I felt Hi Son showed signs of a long campaign taking it’s toll last time.  He loomed up and looked to be motoring before caving in.  Volkhere really showed some fight after looking to be gone.  Can he lift again?  There’s just so many questions in this race that it’s probably best to avoid.  Having said that I’m prepared to have a few dollars on Bingo Rose (5).  I am concerned that she gets back in her runs.  However the majority could be looking for a spell in the straight.  She has appeared to appreciate the step up in journey her last 2 races.  Last over 1800m she was starting to gather speed in the straight before copping interference for a big part of the straight.  She came again in the final 50m but obviously it was over by that stage.  Gets in with a postage stamp weight after the claim for James Orman.  Other hopes to Volkhere (2), Ongoing Venture (8) and Hi Son (1).

Race 5

Written Above All (5) from barrier 1 should get a super run for Luke Tarrant.  His last 3 starts have been very good.  Three back he won followed by some close up efforts to some good horses (arguably better than this lot).  He rises in weight but is down in class and I just like the way he manages to always finish off.  Other hopes to Abaddon (10), Lock’s Legend (7) and Tahoe City (9).

Race 6

This is a really even affair.  Some of the major players have drawn poorly.  Gotitallwrong (3) offers good value around the $13 mark.  She’s been close up in her last 3 starts.  In all those races she’s been finishing off strongly.  Last start she drew wide and was finishing like a freight train and would have won if the race was slightly further.  She gets barrier 3 here for Bridget Grylls who claims 2kg which should see the horse getting a much better run.  Other hopes to Little Bit Ditsy (5), Vergara (9) and Kalandula (1).

Race 7

There looks to be a lack of pace outside the 2 Gollan runners.  With the rail out 6m, that should again play into the hands of Rocket To Glory (2).   Last start he was able to roll along in front before dashing away in the straight.  With the claim for Luke Tarrant he will carry less than he did last start.  Other hopes to The Storeman (8), Territory (1) and Steel Zip (4).

Race 8

Gojo Mimo (4) has drawn the extreme outside.  However this guy has gate speed and should be able to cross to take up the lead.  I was really impressed with the way he led last start and ran his rivals ragged.  They simply couldn’t catch him.  That was over 1200m and he drops back to 111om which I can see being an advantage.  If they try to take him on for speed he should be stronger at the finish.  He’s a horse in form and I’m prepared to back him at double figure odds.  Other hopes to I’m Usain (5), Londehero (6) and More Leverage (9).

Best Bets Doomben

Race 3 – What About Me (1)

Race 7 – Rocket To Glory (2)

 

Caulfield

Race 1 – Sea Spray (4)

Race 2 – Armada (11)

Race 3 – Maastricht (3)

Race 4 – Kumaon (1)

Race 5 – Leebaz (6)

Race 6 – Sweet Idea (3)

Race 7 – Signoff (9)

Race 8 – Big Money (5)

Race 9 – Lidari (14)

Race 10 – Anatina (3)

 

Randwick

Race 1 – Tempt Me Not (11)

Race 2 – Lucky Chappy (1)

Race 3 – Kermadec (4)

Race 4 – Kuro (2)

Race 5 – Deep Field (9)

Race 6 – Disclaimer (2)

Race 7 – Mahara (5)

Race 8 – Avoid Lightning (3)