30/08/14 – Doomben

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 Racing from Brisbane this Saturday comes to us from Doomben.  This will be the case more often than not with the Eagle Farm revamp.  Last Saturday here we raced on a heavy surface and the track held up quite well.  Our 2 best bets saluted and if you got on prior to Saturday you were treated to a nice price about Volkhere.

As at Thursday morning the track is rated a heavy 8.  That’s surprising given the rain that fell Wednesday.  It’s expected to clear up and you would suspect that the track should return to possibly a dead 5 surface by the first race Saturday.  The rail is out 3.5m.

Before I get into Saturday’s card, I’ll touch on Wednesday’s Ipswich meeting where we found 5 winners from the 8 races.  The best paying $7.50.  Not a bad effort considering how traditionally Ipswich is a difficult track to find a winner.

Race 1

Life At Sea (2) from the Toby Edmonds stable has raced well since a spell.  1st up he broke his maiden status with a 1.5 length win at Ipswich.  He then finished a length 2nd at this track and trip.  From gate 3 jockey Matt McGuren should be able to position the horse in a prime position.  He also claims 3kg which drops the horse 3.5kg from last start.  Currently around the $15 mark, I think that’s definitely worth having a crack at.  Other hopes to Dansolei (11), Shadowside (1) and Sambuca Shot (3).

Race 2

Get your darts out people.  It’s the weekly distance race.  I’m going with Novikov (4) from the Tony Crane yard.  This guy has won his past 2 starts, showing a clean set of heals in the straight in both.  Last start over 2100m he really looked like he appreciated the extra metres.  This race is no harder so I expect him to run well for Larry Cassidy.  Other hopes to Leonardo Express (1), Strategic Shadow (10) and Heater (3).

Race 3

Fine Bubbles (1) saluted for Silk supporters last start when it won over 1400m.  It drops back to 1200m here after a 21 day break (the same sized break it had before winning last time).  I don’t see that as a problem as it was competitive with some handy types in Sydney.  The horse that ran 2nd last start Rebel Dancer won last weekend.  Rises 0.5kg with Jim Byrne replacing Damian Browne which I don’t see as a negative.  It has drawn out in barrier 10 but Byrne shouldn’t too much drama finding a position by either going forward or settling midfield.  Other hopes to Pretty Face (6), Shapin Lady (5) and Miss Stash (2).

Race 4

Harada Bay (6) simply loves this track and distance.  He is undefeated in the 2 starts he’s had here.  He was set to run last Saturday but was scratched due to the wet weather.  That could work to his advantage here as he races at his best when on the fresh side.  He’s drawn barrier 2 for Jimmy Byrne and that should provide the horse with a super run to allow him to fly over the top of them.  Other hopes to Saluter (4), Jetset Lad (2) and Motorised (5).

Race 5

Our Boy Nicholas (4) was outstanding last start when he stormed home to win by 2 lengths with 3rd a further 2.5 lengths back.  That was at this track and over this trip.  It is a step up in grade but I think he’s up to it.  He draws barrier 1 for Jimmy Byrne which will enable him to settle a lot closer than he has in past outings.  That could be ominous for those behind him looking to make up ground.  Other hopes to Big Decision (2), Royal Jester (9) and Tints (11).

Race 6

This looks to be a very open race.  Barriers will play a big role in the final outcome.  Vaz De Torres (7) draws barrier 4 for Robbie Fradd and I can see the South African making the absolute most of that.  He’ll be able to park up close just off the speed whereas other leading hopes will either have to go harder earlier or pull back from their bad draws.  Last start this horse came with a powerful finish to win here over this trip.  The 1615m is his preferred journey as shown by his record of 3 wins from 6.  2 from 3 at the track and trip.  Will appreciate the sting out of the track.  Other hopes to Bernitchy (11), Pasquinel (2) and Red Hot Dazzler (10).

Race 7

The class runner in this race is Kingdoms (1).  For that he’s been lumped with 59kg which at first glance looks a fair whack.  However when you look at what his rivals have been allocated and their respective class levels, then it doesn’t seem as bad.  This guy is Group 1,2 and 3 placed with listed wins.  He’s been nominated for the Cups and Cox Plate which you can’t ever foresee for the rest of this field.  He’s been freshened up after 2 good runs in Brisbane where he won the Centenary Mile fresh and then ran 2nd to Jetset Lad in the Tatt’s Mile here.  He races well on the fresh side and should get the favours from barrier 4 for Larry Cassidy.  Other hopes to Ferment (4), Trakstar (8) and Billy Aucash (6).

Race 8

You Did What (6) sounds like a question I’d be asked after a big night on the piss.  Unlike me, he won’t have the wobbly boots on and should show these a clean set of heals.  This guy has been racing in really good form of late and that was never more apparent than when he won last start defeating Teronado and Avaladyluck over this trip.  After drawing wide and being slow away he settled back before coming over the top.  He’s drawn much better here in barrier 3 and jockey Luke Tarrant will be able to park the horse a little closer.  With the claim for Tarrant he will carry even less than he did last start for winning a similar strength race.  Other hopes to Star Sammy (1), Gundy Spirit (13) and Cleaver (7).

Best Bets

Race 5 – Our Boy Nicholas (4)

Race 7 – Kingdoms (1)

Race 8 – You Did What (6)

23/08/14 – Doomben

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I was reluctant to do the form for this meeting.  Not because I don’t want to get involved but because weather forecasts suggest plenty of rain meaning plenty of scratchings and possibly even an abandonment.   However Doomben handles rain much better than Eagle Farm so I’ll be getting involved (fingers crossed the meeting goes ahead!).

The track is currently rated a dead 4 as at Thursday afternoon.  However as previously stated, heavy rain looks to set in tomorrow and continue right through to Saturday.  Therefore it’s with reasonable confidence that I say that the track will be heavy.

I have a feeling that come Saturday morning, there will be a multitude of scratchings.  For that reason I will only be including my tips (top pick in bold with 3 other horses for the exotics) and not doing a write up.  I’m sure you can fill in the blanks there….handles a wet track!

Race 1

1. Lucky Tom (1) 

2. Hijack Hussy (5)

3. Pienkna (6)

4. Upstart Pride (4)

Race 2

1. Florida Fellow (1)

2. Gun Case (10)

3. All Taken (5) Scratched

4. It’s A Saga (7)

Race 3

1. Lanieri (3)

2. Villamill (1)

3. Quietly Confident (7)

4. Doughty (5)

Race 4

1. Volkhere (5)

2. Darci Be Good (2)

3. Freton (7) Scratched

4. Belltone (1)

Race 5

1. Jefferson Park (9)

2. Mr Favulous (3)

3. Falino (2) Scratched

4. Playitstraight (7)

Race 6

1. Cracco (1)

2. Gully Command (5)

3. Forest Way (2)

4. Not Too Sure (8)

Race 7

1. Jet Down On It (7)

2. Prettyfamous (9)

3. Tulla Touch (12)

4. Maroney Avenue (4)

Race 8

1. Ms Ba Bella (3)

2. Fine Bubbles (1) Scratched

3. Rebel Dancer (2)

4. Itchintowin (10)

Race 9

1. Harada Bay (2) Scratched

2. Flamboyer (5)

3. Romanarma (6)

4. Jopa (4)

BEST BETS

Race 3 – Lanieri (3)

Race 4 – Volkhere (5)

Race 9 – Harada Bay (2) Scratched

20/08/14 – Eagle Farm

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With this being the last meeting at Eagle Farm for some time, it would be remiss of me not to get involved.  It’s about time the track was fixed and we don’t have to look any further back than last Saturday to see why!

Race 1 – Tear It Up (1)

Race 2 – Elizondo (4)

Race 3 – Cynisca (1)

Race 4 – Nudgee (2)

Race 5 – Kalandula (2)

Race 6 – Great Game (3)

Race 7 – Kingtantes (2)

Race 8 – Heater (6)

Race 9 – Teronado (11)

16/08/14 – Eagle Farm

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It’s the second last race meeting at Eagle Farm before it gets a much needed revamp.  In the past it has failed to handle any sort of moisture and wouldn’t you know it, we have rain predicted Friday and Saturday.  Fingers crossed the meeting goes ahead.

The track is currently rated a Good 3 but as previously stated there is a very high chance of showers and rain to hit the course Friday and Saturday.  For that reason it would be beneficial to look for those horses that can handle a wet track. The rail is out 2.5m between 1200 and 400 and 1m the remainder.

Weather and Track Update:  It’s been drizzling since I woke up at 3am.  It’s set to increase to rain and heavy rain around 3pm.  The track is currently rated a dead 5 but you’d be kidding yourself if you didn’t think it would get to a heavy rating at some point.

Race 1

Very open race to kick things off.  As would be expected there is no shortage of speed in this 1000m scamper.  On a dry track I’d be right in Adorabubble’s corner however I can’t take $2.50 about a horse that has never faced anything but a good track.  The Danny Bougoure trained Cut Up (10) looks good value around the $16 mark ($21 available on Bet365).  This well bred youngster was formerly from NSW before coming north.  It resumed in July after having 412 days off and finished 2nd by a nose.  It then won it’s maiden convincingly at Ipswich by 2.8 lengths.  I’m suggesting Bougoure must have some confidence in the ability of the horse to go from an Ippy maiden to a Saturday race.  Although it hasn’t been on a wet track, breeding suggests it can handle it.  Should be able to sit behind a hot speed for Travis Wolfgram who gets in at 51kg after the claim.  Other hopes to Sequillian (1), Pretty Face (3) and Adorabubble (2).

Race 2

I’ve got Sleep Tight (5) on top based on it’s past 2 starts.  Those 2 runs over this trip of 1600m will have the horse rock hard fit.  Two back it finished 3rd to Jumbo Prince and Yeager.  It then finished 2nd to Yeager.  Blinkers go on which is a positive sign.  This filly has drawn out in barrier 10 but I would suspect Tim Bell will let her settle back.  I wouldn’t be taking a ridiculous price about her but I suspect we’ll be yelling “Ring The Bell” as they cross the line.  Other hopes to Bradbury’s Gold (6), Lady Jesse (3) and Asthecourtcommands (4).

 Race 3

Oak ‘N’ Arthur (5) looks for a hattrick of wins here.  Two starts back he won over this trip in his own age group.  He beat L’entrecote that day.  He then took on the older horses and came away with a narrow win.  He may not win by a big margin but he certainly shows plenty of fighting spirit to get that victory.  Luke Tarrant will be able to take up a position just off the pace.  Great record at the track and trip and has placed on heavy a couple of times.  Other hopes to Tail And All (1), L’entrecote (4) and Harbor Springs (9).

Race 4

Villamill (2) came within a whisker of winning last start over 1300m.  She was coming off a 24 day freshen up and you would think that run would have done her the world of good for this race.  She drops 3kg’s for taking on the boys but she draws the pole for apprentice Matthew McGuren who should be able position the horse very handy.  She has recorded a win on heavy going and placed in 2 out of 3 on slow.  Other hopes to Playitstraight (1), Jopa (5) and Youthful King (3).

Race 5

Jet Down On It (3) is no doubt looking for further than the 1000m here but on a wet track 1st up and a reasonable speed set, he should be right in this.  Three starts back he defeated recent Saturday winner Maury on heavy going by 3.5 lengths.  Last start prior to the spell he beat Theft.  Very solid form for a race like this.  Will settle back from the wide gate but will be finding the line.  A wet track will really enhance his chances.  Other hopes to Florida Fellow (1), That’s Pops (5) and Boss Burr (11).

Race 6

Stone the crows!  These distance races are generally a dartboard job.  Throw in a wet track and well, I hope you’re Phil “The Power” Taylor.  I’d like to meet the person who decided to make this a leg of the quaddie.  I’ll keep it simple…Markout (3) on top with no confidence. Reasonable form and has won on heavy.  Other hopes….you tell me.

Race 7

Bjorn Baker brings Burbero (4) to Queensland on the back of some solid efforts in Sydney.  He gets the services of Damian Browne which is a big positive.  Just looking through his form you could say he has a class edge.  Back in June he ran a very close 3rd to Generalife on slow going and that horse has been flying recently.  No worries with a wet track being out of O’Reilly.  I would think that Damo will position the horse fairly close to the action.  Other hopes to Harada Bay (5), Cash ‘N’ Style (9) and Saluter (3).

Race 8

It’s been a tough card and I am not surprised that the final race is no different.  I’m going with Choose A Saga (8).  Obviously the first thing you notice is that it’s drawn the car park.  Less than ideal.  However I think Eddie Wilkinson will be able to get him across to take up a forward position.  He’s a bit of a non-winner, with just 2 wins from 18 starts.  However he’s always competitive as shown by the fact he’s placed in half his races.  He races well at the track and in fact he won his only start at the trip here.  He also handles a wet track which I reckon will be a big bonus by this stage of the day.  Double figure odds, yeah he’ll do me.  Other hopes to Teronado (12), Prettyfamous (13) and Avaladyluck (14).

Best Bets

Race 2 – Sleep Tight (5)

Race 7 – Burbero (4)

02/08/14 – Eagle Farm

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It’s with a heavy heart that I write this weekend’s edition of The Silk.  Both my grandparents are in hospice very ill and obviously that’s where my thoughts are.  For that reason I had thought about giving it a miss this week.  However I don’t think my grandparents would want we to not get involved in something I love on their account so here we go.

We’ve had super weather here this week and yet the Eagle Farm track is rated a dead 4.  With fine weather set to continue we may even get a good track.  The rail is out 4m.

Weather and Track Update Saturday morning:  Fine weather with a Good 3 track.

Race 1

I’ve been on Yeager (1) it’s past 2 starts and I don’t think now’s the time to get off.  He’s up in weight considerably but so to are the competitors who raced and beat last start.  Despite finishing 2nd last start over this trip to Jumbo Prince, I felt it was still a good run.  He draws barrier 2 which I’m sure Jimmy Byrne will take advantage of after drawing 9 and 11 in his previous 2 races.  The only negative is the short quote.   Next best Sleep Tight (4).

Race 2

God give us strength!  14 do battle in the weekly 2000m+ race.  It’s a BM75 which makes it all the less palatable.  As much as I love to get involved, even I can’t bring myself to take this on.  Pass!

Race 3

Flying Riddle (3) goes for a hattrick of wins here and should get conditions to suit.  Last start he won by 3 lengths here in a class 5.  There should be a reasonable speed set for him to finish off the race strongly.  Has the spunky Cassie Schmidt in the saddle who could claim 3kg but can’t.  Other hopes to Euphonic (6), Lennie’s Choice (2) and Del Palio (1).

Race 4

The Matt Dunn trained Idle Chat (2) has some strong form in the Sydney provincials.  Last start she won the James Kirby at Grafton in what was an outstanding performance.  She deadset sprouted wings to storm home.  With adequate speed here she’ll be suited again and I expect her to be finding the line.  Loves this distance and has been in the quinella 8 of 11 career starts.  Other hopes to Miss Stash (3), Adorabubble (7) and Tiger Dimejan (1).

Race 5

I have backed Kalandula (8) it’s last 2 starts and will be doing so again here.  This prep she had a kill 1st up at Ipswich, then a 2.8 length 9th here before winning last start at the Coast.  She really found the line last start and the 1300m will suit here.  The form from that race has been franked with the horse than finished 2nd Riverbolda then finishing 2nd to Heza Bobby Dazzler.   Unlike some of her main rivals she’s drawn beautifully in barrier 1 for Michael Cahill.  From there he’ll get the gun run.  Other hopes to Villamill (1), Itchintowin (6) and Get On (5).

Race 6

L’entrecote (5) has drawn barriers 15 and 16 in it’s past 2 starts.  Coming from barrier 15 he got within a nose of Flamboyer.  He then drew barrier 16 and finished 2 lengths off Oak ‘N’ Arthur.  Both times the horse raced 4 and 5 wide yet never shirked it’s task.   It draws barrier 6 here and that puts this horse firmly into calculations.  From there young Bridget Grylls who claims 3kg can give the horse a terrific run.  Other hopes to Primary Colour (7), Old Feeling (11) and Bodega Negra (3).

Race 7

Little Brown Horse (5) was very good last start when charging to the line.  She finished just behind Saluter in a race that favoured those on pace.  She won the 2 previous starts to that so you know she’s in good nick.  She draws barrier 5 which should give her a much better run and make her tough to hold out in the straight.  Other hopes to Saluter (7), Achievements (8) and Phelan Ready (4).

Race 8

What a doozy of a race to finish the day!  So many chances.  It’s a case of where do you start?  At double figure odds I’m giving Lewaulo (13) a go.  This guy steps up to Saturday class after some solid racing at the midweeks.  He loves this trip with 3 wins and 2 placings from 5 starts.  He will carry next to no weight after the claim for Travis “Wolfman” Wolfgram which will help his racing style of going forward.  Ideally he’ll park just behind the leaders in the box seat.  Other hopes to Romanarma (10), Big Decision (3) and Accidental (15).  Obviously you could include many more “other hopes”.

Best Bet

Race 5 – Kalandula (8)

Race 7 – Little Brown Horse (5)