22/11/14 – Ascot and Doomben

cleaner

This week I’ll be taking a look at two meetings.  I’ll obviously be taking the usual look at Doomben.  I will also be running my eye over Ascot.

I’m heading over to Perth for Super Saturday and am quite excited to not only experience Western Australia’s premier race meeting but to also see one of my favourite horses in the flesh, The Cleaner.

I’m flying over Friday morning so it’s doubtful that I will be able to do any updates for scratchings on Saturday.

 Ascot

The track is rated on Thursday a Good 3 with the rail in the inside position.  There is a chance of showers Friday and Saturday but I doubt they will have an effect on the track.  I would imagine the worst case scenario would be a dead track but good looks the go.

Race 1

I’m going with the very well bred Ningbo (11) in the opening event for 2 year olds over 1000m.  This filly is out of a group 1 winning sire and a listed winning mare.  She debuts here on the back of a 4.8 length trial win.  It’s time that day was slightly better than most of the older horses over the same trip.  She draws barrier 6 for William “Pikey” Pike which should see her get a good run.  Other hopes to Snatch ‘N’ Grab (2), Lord Conrad (1) and Chanzig (4).

Race 2

Arcadia Rose (5) was a forget run 1st up.  Pikey gave her a beautiful run in transit before trying to take the rails run at the cutaway in the straight.  As can be the case at Ascot, the leader moved over blocking Arcadia Rose’s run when she appeared to be looming large.  All hope was gone at that point and she dropped out to finish 2.6 lengths back in 8th.  Once again she’ll get a great run here.  Pikey will be able to position her just behind the leaders in the box seat.  The blinkers go on for the 1st time which suggests she’ll be raring to go.  Her 2nd up record is very good with a win and 2nd from 2 2nd up efforts.  Other hopes to Gigante (9), Nardini (10) and High Limit (6).

Race 3

There should be reasonable speed in this 1200m race with a number of these liking to race forward.  I’m going with one of those that likes to do it from the front in Fuld’s Bet (7).  This lightly raced filly has looked a nice type in her 4 starts.  She’s had a freshen up after finishing 2nd in the Belgravia Stakes over 1200m and 5th in the Burgess Queen Stakes over 1400m. On each occasion she led the field up and did really well to keep fighting to the line.  From barrier 2 Peter “Knuckles” Knuckey will be able to take up the lead or box seat.  I get the feeling that many of these may be able to go with her early but she has the ability to sustain that speed for much longer.  Other hopes to Hobart Jones (1), Liberty’s Gem (6) and Django (2).

Race 4

The Carbine Club of W.A. Stakes looks a very good race.  I’m going with Real Love (11).  The way she finished off last start over 1500m was sensational.  Pikey settled her towards the back before circling 8 wide on the turn and sprinting with gusto.  Last campaign she placed in the Oaks and Derby proving that she is a class animal.  She’s drawn wide in barrier 10 but will settle back so that won’t be a massive problem.  Other hopes to Black Heart Bart (7), Miss Rose De Lago (10) and Express Service (3).

Race 5

Cool Trade (2) was on fire last campaign, winning all 5 starts.  She resumed recently for a 1.5 length 4th over this trip.  She had a slightly elevated heart rate that day.  She’s drawn barrier 11 but there doesn’t look to be too many horses that will go forward so I think Patrick Carbery can slot her in 3rd or 4th.  She has a super record at the journey and likes the track.  Other hopes to Hussy By Choice (1), My Sister Lil (7) and Vampi Lass (11).

Race 6

Disposition (1) has done nothing wrong in his 4 career starts and has the W.A. Guineas at his mercy.  He’s won all 4 in emphatic style.  Last start over 1400m here he settled back before unwinding with a strong run in the straight to fly past his rivals.  The way he finished that race suggests the 1600m here will be right up his alley.  He draws barrier 2 for Pikey which gives him options.  Other hopes to Say Geronimo (8), Delicacy (11) and Tonto (4).

Race 7

Our first Group 1 of the day – The Winterbottom Stakes.  Damian Oliver can give Angelic Light (13) the best ride here from barrier 5.  He can possie up just behind the leaders before unloading in the straight.  She is in excellent and has been close up behind the nation’s best sprinters.  Last start she went within a whisker of beating Terravista in the Manikato.  Lankan Rupee, Buffering and others were behind her.  She was less than a length behind them the start prior and 3 starts back she defeated Lankan Rupee.  Solid form for this.  Other hopes to Moment Of Change (1), Sidestep (2) and Eclair Big Bang (8).

Race 8

The Group 1 Railway Stakes is the race I’m really looking forward to.  I’ve been a fan of The Cleaner (1) for some time and can’t wait to see him do his thing in the flesh.  Besides the fact he’s one of my favourites, I think he’s up to his eyeballs in this.  He’s been racing in some top quality races in Melbourne which should place him in tremendous stead here.  Last start he went down by a bit over a length to Hucklebuck, a horse flying.  Two starts back he led the Cox Plate field up and despite getting overtaken in the straight he still fought on to only go down by 3.4 lengths.  That was a high pressure race so to hang in there is a top sign.  The 1600m is his pet trip.  He’s won 8 of 14 and placed in 3 others.  He has won up to 2150m so you know he’ll be strong at the end.  The only concern is the fact that he apparently didn’t travel well.  Word is he settled well though.  Can any of these match motors with him for the full race?  Other hopes to Alma’s Fury (4), Smokin’ Joey (3) and Respondent (16).

Race 9

The final race of the day is over 2100m.  Our starting point is the Ascot Gold Cup run here 2 weeks ago over 1800m.  I don’t think I’ve seen a situation before where the same field goes around again the following start.  15 of the 18 nominated here met in the Ascot Gold Cup.  I’m going with my old mate Pikey in the last and his ride Rebelson (7).  He was enormous in the Ascot Gold Cup when finishing 2nd by 3/4 of a length.  He took up the running at a pretty strong pace.  To still be right in the finish was a credit to his toughness.  Besides Pop Culture, he beat the rest of these by close to 3 lengths.  With a quieter ride from Pikey he’ll be charging home once again.  Other hopes to Son Of Something (14), Bedamijo (8) and Pop Culture (2).

Best Bets Ascot

Race 6 – Disposition (1)

Race 9 – Rebelson (7)

Doomben

The track as of Thursday morning was rated a slow 7 with the rail out 3m.  Warm weather is again on the cards which opens us up to the chance of late thunderstorms.  This was never more evident than Wednesday afternoon with big falls around the place.  It’s a tough call on what state the track will be in given the drying effect of hot days and potential for rain in the afternoons.   Dead-slow seems the most likely scenario.

Race 1

I’ll go with the tried and tested 2 year old here in Frequendly (1).  You can’t knock her form.  She won her trial before winning her 1st 2 race starts.  Last start she won by 8.8 lengths if you don’t mind.  She’s drawn barrier 7 but again you’d think Brad Stewart will be able to get her across into a forward position relatively easily.  Unless 1 of these 1st starters is a world beater, I can’t see her getting rolled.  Other hopes to Cookie’s Carioca (2), Meet George Jetson (7) and Patronizing (4).

Race 2

Shiraz Attack (8) really hit the line last start when winning over 1350m here 2 weeks ago.  She steps up to 1600m here which going on the way she finished off last time, won’t be a problem.  She’s drawn wide in barrier 9 but her pattern of racing is to settle back so I’m sure Robbie Fradd can find a position without working too hard.  She’s always been a horse that promised a lot, maybe she’s turned the corner and is ready to deliver.  Other hopes to Bush Aviator (1), Lock’s Legend (5) and Royal Jester (6).

Race 3

Sporting Page (1) was run down late last start when finishing 3rd to Dream Of Slips.  That horse has since won again and in Sporting Page’s favour is that it drops back from 1200m to 1110m.  It’s a distance that the horse has won 3 of 5.  From barrier 3 James Orman who claims 3kg will be able to lead or box seat.  That will give him every possible chance to get the win.  Other hopes to Four Strings (3), Glenbawn Dame (7) and Warhogg (9).

Race 4

Toby Edmonds has a few Segenhoe Thoroughbreds horses transferred to his yard from Sydney going around and I think one of them Lesley’s Choice (5) can win this no metro win race over 1110m.  This horse has form around some nice types.  Last start she finished just over 2 lengths from Spy Decoder, a horse that finished 2nd on Cup day at Flemington  Yes this is short of what she normally races however that could work in her favour.  From barrier 5 Jim Byrne can take up the lead and prove very hard to pass.  Other hopes to Harmonized Feeling (9), Treatmelikealady (10) and Foretoken (8).

Race 5

Thankfully there’s 9 races on the card.  Otherwise this BM75 over 2200m would be the 1st leg of the quaddie.  Thank god for small mercies.  Black Ninja (1) put the sword to his rivals last start when winning by 3.3 lengths over this trip.  After settling at the back, Chris Munce didn’t like the speed and took off 1000m out.  It showed a real contempt for his rivals.  This field isn’t that much tougher and he will race with less weight thanks to the claim for Travis Wolfgram.  Wolfman will be able to settle the horse around midfield or better from barrier 5.  His record at the track and distance is a perfect 3 from 3.  He’ll be hard to run down in the straight.  Other hopes to Hora Sexta (2), Paraggi (4) and Salerio (3).

Race 6

I really liked the effort of Flying Riddle (6) last time out.  He was resuming and really flew home to win comfortably over this trip.  He rises in class but drops massively in weight.  With the claim for Cassie Schmidt he’ll go from 58kg to 52.5kg.  He has a great 2nd up record never being out of the placings in 3 tries.  Barrier 8 could be a little awkward but I think Schmidt will be able to get into a forward position as the speed doesn’t look that great.  Other hopes to Seeking More (1), The Storeman (3) and Trail Boss (2).

Race 7

Freezethemillions (5) has always been a horse that promised something but has rarely delivered.  She has only won the 1 race from 11 starts.  However she has been placed in listed company and was 4th in a Group 2.  Last start she finished off nicely despite racing all over the place like a mad dog shit.  The step up to 1200m here will suit in a race where there looks to be plenty of speed.  Slick Rik McMahon can settle midfield from barrier 2 and will hopefully storm home for the win.  Other hopes to Lush Belle (6), Outback Saga (7) and Yeager (2).

Race 8

 The Keith Noud Quality looks a competitive race over 1200m.  I’m a big fan of Love Rocks (3) and that’s the way I’ll be going here.  He resumed with an easy win carrying 59.5kg and looked to have come back in great form.  He then finished 3rd at the Sunshine Coast over 1000m which wasn’t a bad effort.  The 2 that beat him, Rocky King and Adebisi are out and out speedsters and they ran track record time over the unsuitable trip.  Back to 1200m here is more to his liking and he’s undefeated in 2 starts at the trip.  He gets regular rider Anthony Allen back on and has drawn barrier 2 which will give him a beautiful run.  There is plenty of speed in this race but this guy has shown an ability to be able to niggled at and still pull away so that doesn’t worry me.  Other hopes to Benny’s Buttons (1), Rocket To Glory (4) and Primal Flight (11).

Race 9

I’m a little concerned about backing Londehero (2) here given his penchant for settling well back.  However the step up to 1350m counters those concerns.  Last start he absolutely savaged the line when running on from a clear last to go down by just a half length.  An extra 150m and a decent speed should enable him to gobble them up.  I would like Travis Wolfgram to settle a little closer than normal but the wide gate probably prevents that.  Other hopes to Cracco (3), Southerly (1) and Old Feeling (14).

Best Bets Doomben

Race 4 – Lesley’s Choice (5)

Race 6 – Flying Riddle (6)

The Frustrations Of Giving Punting Thoughts

Yesterday wasn’t the best day for The Silk.  We found 2 winners from the 7 races.  These being Dream Of Slips at $3.40 (Dividends were much better if you got on before scratchings to main rivals) and Sir Moments at $2.70.

Personally I had a fantastic day and this is where my frustration comes in.  I punt for fun so I bet on the majority of races which obviously I can’t cover here.  Along with your traditional win bets I do quaddies, placecards, megabets and 3 leg multis through the day.  It’s only a problem if you lose right?  Unfortunately that means sometimes my better results can come from somewhere outside of Brisbane.  This was never more evident than yesterday when I jagged 20% of the Sandown Quadrella and a number of 3 leggers.

I’m including my results which can be found on Punters web site and also some of my better bets.  I realise you may think that I’m a wanker for posting after the fact.  Hopefully some will think, gee maybe he knows something.

I’m always available for my thoughts on the meetings I don’t cover in The Silk so drop me a line.

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15/11/14 – Gold Coast

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It’s been a bit monotonous lately with Saturday racing at Doomben and the midweek meeting at Ipswich.  Brace yourself, we head to the Gold Coast this Saturday.

Thursday the track was rated a Good 3. There is a chance of showers later today and possibly Friday.  It will pay to monitor but with the bloody hot temperatures expected, any moisture in the track will more than likely dry out.  So a hard and fast track should be expected.  The rail is in the true position.

Race 1

We kick things off with a 900m dash for 2 year olds.  I won’t be getting involved here.  There is just too much uncertainty with over half the field on debut and unseen at trials.

Race 2

I don’t want to offend but this race would be more suitable on a Wednesday.  Very average indeed.  With limited confidence I’m going with Twisted Mountain (7).  This guy has been in the placings at Ipswich lately.  Since resuming 3 starts ago he’s been no more than a length from the winner.  From barrier 4 Chris Munce should be able to take up a forward position and get a super run.  A win mustn’t be far away.  Other hopes to Sammi Jain (12), Far Dooley (1) and Curfew (3).

Race 3

This is a very competitive sprint over 1100m.  The consistency of Miss Stash (6) interests me here.  She has been freshened up and last raced 77 days ago.  She has an excellent record when fresh with 2 wins and 2 2nds from 5 resumptions.  She draws beautifully in barrier 1 for Luke Tarrant who claims 1.5kg.  From there she’ll be able to get an excellent run just behind the quick leaders.  The blinkers go back on which should ensure she’s raring to go.  Other hopes to Adorabubble (5), Tukiyo (4) and Faith’n’Courage (7).

Race 4

Furbish (1) was highly impressive resuming last start at Scone.  He sat 3 wide the trip before easily and I mean easily put them to bed in the straight.  He won by 4.5 lengths and wouldn’t have raised a sweat.  He raced in Group company last campaign and you would think has a bit too much for these.  He does have to lump 59kg but I don’t think that’s going to stop him.  Jim Byrne takes the ride and has drawn wide but he will settle back in a race with suitable speed.  Other hopes to Golden Falls (8), Miss Cover Girl (2) and Gid Up Strop (5).

Race 5

I’m going with the local galloper Avalanches (7) in the opening leg of the quaddie.  This young stayer loves racing at his home track.  His record here over the trip is 3 wins and 2 placings from 5 starts.  He enters this on the back of a  3 length win in easier company.  He did carry 59kg that day and drops to 54.5kg here.  3 starts back he finished 2nd over the distance and in the process defeated Bingo Rose who won last weekend in town.  From barrier 5 Grant Cooksley will be able to race up on the speed.  Other hopes to Amexed (1), Vaz De Torres (9) and Arctic (2).

Race 6

There is no doubting that this race over 1200m will be run at a fast clip.   Dream Of Slips (6) has a special place in my heart after it completed a monster multi for me last time out.  Sentiment aside, this is a very good horse.  He’s won 4 of 8 career starts but it’s been his efforts since a spell that have been the highlight.  He’s won 3 of 4 and looked good winning over this trip last start.  He’s drawn barrier 11 for Bridget Grylls who claims 2kg but she’s a capable young jockey and should be able to get the horse over into a spot just behind the leaders.  Other hopes to Londehero (1), Eastern Prince (3) and Primal Flight (8).

***Confidence levels have grown considerably about the chances of Dream Of Slips after the scratchings of Londehero and Primal Flight.  I hope you got in early because the $5 won’t be available now.  For exotic players I’ll add Romanarma (8) and Darcey (13) to the other hopes***

Race 7

This is a very good race and not as clear cut as some would think.  I’m going with Sir Moments (2).  He resumed 2 weeks ago and it was hard to miss his fast finishing half a length 3rd.  He’ll be further improved 2nd up and which will make him extremely hard to hold out.  He meets Hopfgarten better at the weights from last start.  Last campaign he was electric winning the Guineas and the Daybreak Lover.  You get the feeling he is a serious racehorse and we’ll be yelling, “Ring The Bell” as Tim Bell drives him home hard.  Other hopes to Hopfgarten (3), Grayson Square (9) and Brave Ali (1).

Race 8

Gee whiz, where do go here?  This is a very tough race to finish on.  I’m going with a horse that has done the right thing by us in the past in Scarborough (3).  This guy had been racing in good form up until last start when he found the 1800m a bit of a stretch.  Prior to that he had won or placed 3 times over distances ranging from 1300-1600m.  He’ll appreciate the drop back to 1400m here after a freshen up.  He’s drawn wide in barrier 10 but he young Matt McGuren who claims 2kg should be able to get across to take up a position a few pairs back.  That should see him strong at the finish.  Other hopes to Abu Ben Adam (7), Nivali (13) and Little Bit Ditsy (12).

Best Bets

Race 4 – Furbish (1)

Race 7 – Sir Moments (2)

08/11/14 – Doomben

doomben

Well the Spring Carnival has been a humbling experience.  I’ve had 3 months of really good results and in the blink of an eye I’ve come crashing back down to Earth with Melbourne Cup day and Oaks day.  That’s punting I guess.  Back to home base at Doomben where we’ve had a fair bit of success in recent times so fingers crossed for a change of luck.

Just the 7 races to sink our teeth into.  As of Thursday the track was rated a Good 3.  The weather forecast looks alright but there is always the chance of storms this time of year so monitor that.  The rail is out just half a metre.

Race 1

We kick things off with a 2 year old race over 1050m.  There’s a few unraced with no trial info here but it’s hard to see any of them rolling The Wildman (1).  He’s had the 2 race starts for a 2nd on debut and then winning last time out.  Luke Tarrant who claims 1.5kg should be able to jump and take up a forward position from barrier 5.  He drops in weight from the last start win.  Whether you want to take a short price about him is up to you but I think he should be winning.

Race 2

Bush Aviator (5) stepped up to the 1600m last start and wasn’t that bad.  He hit the front in the straight and looked to be going on with it before weakening suddenly mid-straight but to his credit found something to fight for 4th.  He carried 58kg that day and drops to 52.5kg in this race which I think will be telling.  Luke Tarrant will be able to take up the lead relatively easily from barrier 2 and control proceedings.  With the light weight he’ll prove hard to catch.  Other hopes to Brave Ali (1), Darci Be Good (2) and Amexed (4).

***Normally I would replace the scratched horses in Brave Ali and Amexed but the race has been reduced to just 5 so I’d be naming 80% of the field as hopes.  What would be the point?***

Race 3

I’m going with Bingo Rose (5) in this week’s distance raffle.  She’s been racing in excellent form recently without winning many.  Last start she stepped up to this distance for the first time.  She finished just under a length from Darci Be Good, Volkhere and Hi Son.  There’s no stayers here of that quality.  Normally she settles back but she did race a lot closer to the action and I’d like to see Luke Tarrant apply similar tactics.  Regardless there should be ample speed in the race for her to finish over the top. Other hopes to Arctic (6), Hora Sexta (2) and Shotover River (4).

Race 4

The Storeman (4) has been close up and in the placings it’s last 2 starts.  I thought he raced really well against Rocket To Glory and Rudy.  They aren’t here which gives him the chance to get the win.  This is a drop in class.  He’s drawn barrier 1 which will enable Luke Tarrant to get to the front or take up the box seat with a fair amount of ease.  From that position he’ll be awfully hard to beat.  Other hopes to Architect (5), Vintage Moss (1) and Beach Babe (10).

Race 5

This is a very competitive race with 4 of the 10 meeting last start.  I’m continuing my bromance with Luke Tarrant here and going with Queen Of The Lochs (3).  I thought she was very good last start when winning over 1200m.  She drew wide as she does here and was able to find the front after doing a bit of work.  She then fended them off in the straight for what was a good win.  She steps up to 1350m which may raise concerns for some.  Looking back through her past starts she has won over 1400m and was narrowly defeated over 1600m in the Princess Stakes.  I have no worries about her over this trip.    As mentioned earlier she has drawn wide but I think she can get across with not a great deal of effort.  Other hopes to Discreet (1), Elusive Storm (2) and Goldslick (4).

Race 6

I won’t be making the same mistake about Abaddon (9) as I did last start again.  Wow!  He was awesome over 1350m 3 weeks ago here.  Damian Browne settled the horse towards the back of the field and made his move entering the straight.  When Browne pushed the button, Abaddon simply exploded.  He looked like he gobbled the opposition up with complete ease and had a tonne left in the tank in doing so.  There should be ample speed on here which will help him fly home over the top. Rik McMahon and not Luke Tarrant takes the ride!  Other hopes to The White Hope (1), Gundy Spirit (4) and Lock’s Legend (10).

Race 7

This is a competitive race for 3 year olds over 1110m to finish the day.  I’m going with the Steven O’Dea trained Beau Jet (7).  He’s had just the 2 starts and has won them both with relative ease.  The way he has cruised up and the pulled away suggests that the extra 110m here will not bother him.  Tim Bell will settle midfield and with plenty of speed up front he should be able to work into it nicely before finishing strongly.  Other hopes to Freezethemillions (8), Jumbo Prince (1) and I Am Boss (2).

Best Bets

Jockey Challenge – Luke Tarrant

Race 1 – The Wildman (1)

Race 6 – Abaddon (9)

06/11/14 – Flemington Oaks Day

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It wasn’t the best day on Tuesday.  Only 3 winners were found over the 2 meetings looked at.  It’s little solace but many better judges than me struggled to find a winner.  We did however find the all important Melbourne Cup winner in Protectionist.  Boy wasn’t that a run and a half?

This will be the way I’ll be going on Oaks Day:

Race 1 – Navajo Run (8)

Race 2 – Cadillac Man (10) Saigon Tea (4)

Race 3 – Sultry Feeling (3)

Race 4 – Beauty’s Beast (2)

Race 5 – Proactive (6) 

Race 6 – Shamal Wind (4)

Race 7 – Angels Beach (16) 

Race 8 – Lumosty (4)

Race 9 – Floatmyboat (4)

***Best Bets In Bold***  

04/11/14 – Doomben and Flemington

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I’ve taken a look at Doomben and of course Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day.  It looks a challenging day with the big fields

Most of you will probably only be interested in my Melbourne Cup selection.  Fair enough.  I’m going with Protectionist.  Firstly I thought it’s run in the Herbert Power was excellent after a couple of months off.  With the big weight he flew home over the final 200m.  That was a high pressure race which will stand him in good stead for the Cup which will also be high pressure.  Dominic Beirne and others have stated in the past that international horses need to have a run in Australia before the Cup.  I value their opinion and the stats clearly support this. He gets a tick there.  He’s an up and coming stayer with plenty of potential to improve.  Won a Group 2 in France over 3000m so distance will not be an issue.  Former Cup winners Americain and Dunaden have also used that race as a stepping stone to here.  Finally he gets the services of one of the best jockeys in the world, Cox Plate winning jockey Ryan Moore.

I will also have some money on Fawkner.  He’s been in terrific form this time in.  The Cox Plate run was a bottler in a high pressure race.

Melbourne Cup Exotics Horses: Protectionist (5), Fawkner (3), Mutual Regard (11) Signoff (24).  Depending on how wide you want to go, I’d also consider throwing in Admire Rakti (1), Lucia Valentina (22) and Araldo (21).

Doomben 

Race 1 – Watling (2)

Race 2 – Kaiser Franz (5)

Race 3 – A Day To Remember (4)

Race 4 – Choivision (4)

Race 5 – Just Keep Giving (5)

Race 6 – Coruba Queen (5)

Race 7 – Imperial (1)

Race 8 – The Thomas Affair (5)

 

Flemington

Race 1 – Comprende (12)

Race 2 –  Dig A Pony (6)

Race 3 – Order Of The Sun (3)

Race 4 – Baligari (10)

Race 5 – Ms Mazetti (16)

Race 6 – Wine Tales (2)

Race 7 – Protectionist (5), Saver Fawkner (3)

Race 8 – Stipulate (2)

Race 9 – Iconic (4)

Race 10 – Rose Of Choice (5)