31/01/15 – Doomben

doomben

With last Saturday’s meeting being abandoned, we are faced with a monster 10 race card this Saturday.  The track is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position.  There is a slight chance of showers over the coming days but I’m expecting those to not eventuate.

Race 1

Four of these faced off at the Sunshine Coast 2 weeks ago and that’s the form line that I think will produce the winner.  Double Impact (1) won that race with relative ease.  He settled at the back of the field before gobbling them up in the straight.  He carries the same weight here and I can’t see any of these turning the tables.  Settling back obviously isn’t advantageous at Doomben and I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of that tactic.  In a small field, he should be closer to the action.  Other hopes to Tracey’s Angel (3), Best Of The Rest (5) and Flying Home (2).

Race 2

This race for 2 year old colts and geldings is really one that you don’t want to be messing with.  We’ve got 1st starters who have not been seen, horses from North Queensland, 1 from NSW and locals with less than impressive form.  There’s 9 other races to bet in.

Race 3

Scratch that.  There’s 8 other races to bet in.  The 2 year old fillies go around here and there’s far too many unknowns for my liking.

Race 4

Going with Espiritu (3) in this sprint over 1110m for fillies and mares.  She has never been out of the trifecta in 7 starts and was really good last campaign.  As would be expected in a race of this distance, there is plenty of speed.  Cassie Schmidt who claims 3kg will be able to settle the horse just off that speed before launching home in the straight.  She’s undefeated in 2 1st up runs.  Other hopes to Tiger Dimejan (1), Vienna Queen (5) and Riverbolda (11).

Race 5

It’s hard to go past Knight Templar (2) in the boy’s 1110m one metro win race.  Since coming to Qld he has been flying.  He’s registered 2 wins and a 2nd in his 3 starts here.  From barrier 1 Scott Galloway will be able to get a dream run.  Other hopes to Superstition (12), River Spirit (9) and Florida Fellow (3).

Race 6

This isn’t a strong Open Handicap over 1200m.  Bart and James Cummings bring The Peak (2) north and have placed it in a very winnable race.  It’s form in Sydney has been quite good with close finishes behind the likes of Generalife and Inside Job in Stakes and BM95 races.  Surely that puts it right in this race where the majorit of horses aren’t world beaters or racing that well.  He comes here 2nd up and has a 50% record under those circumstances.  Gets the services of top jockey Damian Browne who will be able to race midfield or possibly better before finishing strongly.  Other hopes to Excellantes (1), Architect (8) and Londehero (10).

***The Peak has been scratched.  It basically picked itself by default here so it’s a little tougher now.  Will put Excellantes (1) on top. Will get a sweet run and prove hard to catch.  Adding Theft (9) to the other hopes***

Race 7

True Royal (3) is racing in excellent form at the moment.  He’s been in the trifecta 8 of 11 starts but I thought his win last start at the Sunshine Coast when he took on the older horses and gave them a lesson.  Back to his own age he’ll be hard to toss.  He’s drawn well in barrier 5 for Damian Browne who will be able to settle in the first handful of horses.  Other hopes to Divine Service (2), Vienna Royale (4) and The Lynches (8).

***Boo!  True Royal has been scratched.  Divine Service (2) becomes our top pick.  It will sit up on the speed from barrier 1 and will give a sight.  I’ll add Upstart Pride (6) to the other hopes.***

Race 8

 I think Queen Of The Lochs (4) gets every possible opportunity here to win.  She’ll get her preferred dry surface which is a big positive.  She’s a model of consistency having only been out of the trifecta in 5 of 19 starts.  Besides a wet track failure she’s been racing really well lately.  She enters this on the back of 2 2nds where she lost by a head and  nose.  From barrier 3 Tegan Harrison will be able to get to the lead relatively easily.  That will make her very hard to run down over the 1200m here.  Other hopes to Breakfast In Bed (3), Endless Shadow (5) and Pickabee (6).

Race 9

Our Boy Nicholas (1) has been in super form after a short break.  In the 3 starts since that break he’s finished 2nd twice and won easily on the other occasion.  Last start he finished 2nd to Tinto who has been flying.  That race was a much tougher proposition than this.  He has a super record at the track with 3 wins and 2nd from 5 starts.  He’s drawn barrier 5 for Jimmy Orman whose 3kg claim is of great benefit.  From there he’ll be able to park right behind the action in front.  Other hopes to L’Entrecote (7), Elmantosh (2) and Bewhatyouwannabe (4).

Race 10

There will be plenty of juice to add to the quaddie with the final race being a doozy!  I have a nagging feeling about Believenreceive at the massive odds but the way it weakened last time out, I just can’t put on top.  Will get a lot of favours and at over $20, could be worth a wager.  Pro Consul (6) has drawn barrier 15 which potentially poses problems.  However he drops significantly in grade from his nice effort last start.  He hit the line strongly over 1200m in Open class suggesting the 1350m will suit.  If Mick Cahill gets an ounce of luck from the wide gate, they’ll be hard pressed to hold him out coming home.  Other hopes to Believenreceive (5), French Lesson (8) and Caellum (11).

Best Bets

Race 5 – Knight Templar (2)

Race 9 – Our Boy Nicholas (1)

28/01/15 – Ipswich

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Midweek racing comes to us from Ipswich today.  The track is rated a Soft 7 with the rail out 5m.  Showers are hanging around so we’ll be faced with a wet track.

Unfortunately I couldn’t find a lot of value at the meeting.  That’s not to say we won’t see some big priced winners given the nature of the Ipswich beast.  Fingers crossed that isn’t the case.

Race 1 – Alpintoro (3)                   Danger: Bernindi (1)

Race 2 – Real Heart (6)                Danger: Amazing Mr Hughes (10)

Race 3 – Duchess Molly (7)          Danger: Royal Roulette (3)

Race 4 – Touch Of Bella (3)          Danger: Brookton Ice (1)

Race 5 – Stellarcraft (1)                Danger: Sequalex (3)

Race 6 – Tips ‘N’ Tales (1)            Danger: Don’t Tell Me That (3)

Race 7 – Walhaan (1)                    Danger: Cheeky Devil (10)

Race 8 – Pure Reality (8)             Danger: Rouvray (5)

Race 9 – How Can I Help (2)       Danger: That’llbgood (1)

26/01/15 – Sunshine Coast

sunnycoast

The Australia Day meeting in South East Queensland comes to us from Corbould Park on the Sunshine Coast.  The track on Sunday was rated a Heavy 9 with the rail out 2m.  There is a 60% chance of showers and/or storms Monday so we’ll either have a Heavy track or no better than Soft if they don’t eventuate.

 ***Track and Weather Update:  The track is rated a Heavy 8 this morning.  Weatherzone are suggesting that there is a slight chance of showers and storms.  We will probably see an upgrade to soft.***

Race 1 – Jam Toast (1)                   Danger: Tibrogargan Miss (6)

Race 2 – Queen Of Georgia (8)    Danger: Heart Smart (6)

Race 3 – Eljetem (10)                     Danger: Atarartzi (2)

Race 4 – Mr Favulous (3)              Danger: Seeking More (4)

Race 5 – Lady Jetsetter (4)           Danger: Rosella (2)

Race 6 – Frightening Bolt (6)       Danger: Honey Toast (2)

Race 7 – Tarloshan (10)                 Danger: Time To Plunder (3)

Race 8 – Siegfried (12)                   Danger: Renewed Vitality (11)

24/01/15 – Randwick, Moonee Valley, Morphettville and Ascot

Photo courtesy of Perth Racing.

Unfortunately Doomben has been abandoned today.  Given the amount of rain that has fallen it comes as no surprise.  The writing was on the wall when chief steward Alan Reardon needed a dinghy to inspect the track this morning.

To have some involvement I have taken a look at Randwick, Moonee Valley, Morphettville and Ascot.

Best Bets marked with a *

Randwick

Race 1 – Haptic (4)*

Race 2 – Meursault (1)*

Race 3 – Sense Of Occasion (2)

Race 4 – Nuclear Class (2)

Race 5 – Mihiri (6)

Race 6 – Oriental Lady (4)*

Race 7 – That’s A Good Idea (5)

Race 8 – Shiraz (6)

Moonee Valley

Race 1 – Royal Snitzel (4)*

Race 2 – Arena Rock (2)

Race 3 – Von Classic Hero (2)

Race 4 – Relentless (4)

Race 5 – Churchill’s Wit (9)

Race 6 – Profit Share (9)*

Race 7 – Dissident (1)*

Race 8 – Scarlet Billows (7)

Race 9 – Gallant Harmony (2)

Morphettville

Race 1 – Pass

Race 2 – Skellig (1)*

Race 3 – Lake Jackson (3)

Race 4 – Pass

Race 5 – Nutherbottlegonski (6)

Race 6 – Generous Beau (1)

Race 7 – Dignitary (6)*

Race 8 – Mahican (7)*

Race 9 – Roussanne (5)

Ascot

Race 1 – Express Me (8)

Race 2 – Flying Roar (1)

Race 3 – Madam Sass (2)

Race 4 – Dragonlead (2)*

Race 5 – Power Punch (8)*

Race 6 – Shining Knight (1)*

Race 7 – Highly Secret (5)

24/01/15 – Doomben

doomben

After a month away racing at the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, Saturday racing returns to Doomben.  The rail is in the true position and the track as of Thursday was rated a Soft 5.

However weather is a big concern.  Plenty of rain is expected to fall over the next few days so it is very likely that the track will reach the Heavy range.

Just a quick note for those that normally enter the site from the link on Facebook.   The Silk’s Facebook page was shut down this week by Facebook due to them not authorising me to promote gambling.  I suspect I was reported by someone who didn’t like my work.  Fair enough but surely just unliking the page would have been adequate.  It’s very disappointing given the amount of similar pages on Facebook that continue to operate.  I have no dramas with those guys. Consider this:  I had roughly 1000 people liking my page where I simply linked to my thoughts on racing.  I was told I was breaking Facebook guidelines by promoting gambling.  However it’s acceptable for extremists to preach hate to 100,000 or more people.  Who’s doing the most damage?

Please like the new Facebook page.  The link is on the right.  Cheers.

Race 1

The 2 year old fillies start the day.  A wet track really casts uncertainty over this race as we have no idea how they’ll handle the going.  I’ll have a small wager on Lady Sniper (6).  She has the benefit of race experience and did quite well.  She had 2 races prior to a spell where she wasn’t far off Madotti (finished 4th in Magic Millions) and Flamenco Girl (Magic Millions emergency).  Larry Cassidy will be able to shoot forward from barrier 6 to lead or box seat.  Other hopes to Tibrogargan Miss (9), Egyptian Melody (4) and Magic Square (2).

Race 2

A BM75 over 2200m….give me a spell.  Might as well get a dart!  Well it might not be that drastic here as I don’t mind the chances of Try Four (2).  Following 3 wins on the trot, he stepped up in grade to run a decent 5th to Double Impact last week.  He has a terrific record at the trip with 4 wins and 2 placings from 8 starts.  He also has a good wet track record with 2 wins from 2 on soft and 2 placings from 2 on heavy.  Will roll forward from barrier 6 for Cassie Schmidt who claims 3kg.  Other hopes to Walhaan (5), Lever Lever (4) and Highly Gentle (6).

Race 3

 This looks a race in 2 between Soros (3) and Anna Lizzie (4).  Given Soros’ terrible barrier behaviour in it’s past 2 starts, I’m prepared to risk it.  That leaves Anna Lizzie (4).  It’s a bit short for my liking around the $2 for a horse that has never seen a heavy track.  However it’s effort when resuming last start is hard to ignore.  After drawing barrier 16 she raced 3 wide with no cover before coming 6 wide entering the straight.  She finished 2nd by 3/4 of a length when really she wasn’t entitled to.   She draws better here in barrier 5 and you would think Glen Colless will be able to settle her midfield without problems.  She has won 2 of 3 on soft 5 and 6 tracks.  I’m prepared to be in her corner but would like a better price than is currently on offer.  Other hopes to Soros (3), Steel Zip (1) and Lord Pyrus (9).

Race 4

This really isn’t a race that I’ll be getting carried away with.  In fact it’s a bit of a stinker but 1 of them will win.  Under The Leaner (2) was a complete forgive run last time out in the Bernborough.  He missed the start and then ran into the back of horses on the turn.  He was never a show.  However prior to that he was in good form.  He finished 2.3 lengths off Our Boy Nicholas and won 3 times in a row at Toowoomba to earn punters (this 1 included) any money lost during the day.  He’ll be able to camp up on the speed for Jimmy Orman and in a race that has little speed, that will be of great benefit.  Jimmy O claims 3kg which brings the horse in nicely to 54.5kg.  He’s handled a soft track in the past well and has placed on heavy.  That is a concern but the standard of the race is poor.  Other hopes to Tips ‘N’ Tales (7), Forest Way (3) and Bushy (4).

Race 5

In a challenging race, Ashgrovian (7) offers good value.  This guy won’t know himself after carrying 59kg last start.  He drops to 52.5kg with the claim for Beau Appo.  I thought he was pretty good last start when finishing a close up 3rd at the Sunshine Coast.  He was caught wide early and did a bit of work to lead.  To be in the finish was a credit to him.  What swayed me to him was the way he got through the ground when winning his maiden last year on a heavy 10 surface.  He found the line to win by 3.3 lengths.  He’s drawn barrier 5 which should give Appo every opportunity to take up a nice position.  Other hopes to Sagatona (12), Stroak (4) and Castanita (13).

Race 6

I’m going with Lucky Sound (1) here.  He resumed 2 starts ago and has been quite good in both.  He won last start here on heavy going and shoud be further improved 3rd up.  He races well over this trip with 3 wins from 4 races.  Importantly he handles a wet track as shown by his 2 wins from 4 on heavy going.  From barrier 4 Cassie Schmidt with her 3kg claim will be able to roll forward to sit just behind the leaders.  Other hopes to Real Favulous (10), Flamboyer (8) and Architect (2).

Race 7

Breakfast In Bed (4) won at a short price last start as a best bet of ours.  I can’t see a reason to jump off here.  His last 2 starts have been very good.  He won last start on a soft 7 track by half a length over Endless Shadow who has since won.  The start prior he ran 2nd by 1.5 lengths to Tarloshan and just beat home Tinto who has been flying since.  From barrier 2 Jimmy Byrne will be able to give the horse a super run.  Has won and placed in 2 previous heavy track starts.  Other hopes to Endless Shadow (5), Missy Longstocking (1) and Little Brown Horse (3).

Race 8

I’m going with Siegfried (5) in the last.  He was really good last start chasing home Real Time and Architect on Millions Day.  His 2 other starts since a spell have been ok also.  The step up to 1350m will suit him now.  Although I’m not totally convinced he enjoys a wet track, he should be able to handle it better than most of these.  He’s drawn barrier 10 for Matt McGuren who claims 2kg which isn’t ideal but we saw what he was capable of from barrier 16 last start in a much stronger field so I’m not overly concerned about the barrier.  Other hopes to French Lesson (1), Mr Jetset (8) and Caellum (3).

Best Bet

Race 7 – Breakfast In Bed (4)

Facebook Closure

G’day everyone.  I just wanted to inform the 1000 or so Facebook supporters that the page will no longer be seen on Facebook.  Today I received a message from Facebook telling me my page had been unpublished as it promoted gambling.

Despite the Facebook page only linking to this site and me clearly stating that they are just my thoughts on race, I can’t really argue with them.  I find it very odd that among 100’s of similar pages mine has been looked at and shut down.  My family owns a newsagency and apparently it’s alright to have a page for it even though we sell lotto.  Go figure.  I suspect some weak person who has taken offense to me having a bad month has reported me.

I also find it interesting that Facebook was quite happy to accept my advertising money a few months ago knowing what sort of page I had.

Rest assured, I’ll continue posting my thoughts each Saturday.

Shep

17/01/15 – Sunshine Coast

suncoast

Racing from South-East Queensland comes to us from Corbould Park on the Sunshine Coast this Saturday.  The open spaces of the Sunny Coast circuit will be a welcome change for some horses and hopefully The Silk.  The winners have been a bit light on this past month and rest assured I’m doing my best to break out of this slump.

The track as of Thursday was rated a Soft 6.  The weather through to Saturday poses a few problems when trying to do form days in advance.  Temperatures are set to reach 33 degrees each day up to and including Saturday.  That opens us up to showers and storms which are supposedly only a slight possibility.  My uneducated opinion is that with the amount of heat about, any precipitation will dry out fairly quickly.  So I’m working on a Good 4/Soft 5 surface.   Obviously it will pay to monitor.  Rail is in the true position.

***Track and Weather Update Saturday morning:  As suspected the warm weather has dried the track out and it’s come up a Good 4.  Fine and hot weather is forecast for today. ***

Race 1

Jumbo Prince (3) delivered the cash for us last time out at the Gold Coast and I’m sticking with him.  He finished off the 1800m quite nicely with 57.5kg.  He now steps up to 2200m and meets the older horses.  However in his favour is the fact that he drops considerably in weight to 53kg after the claim for the red hot Luke Tarrant.  He also looks like he appreciates the longer trip and unlike some of these, has room for improvement.  As stated last time, he’s a model of consistency with 11 times on the podium including 6 wins from 15 starts.  Other hopes to Tracey’s Angel (5), Flying Home (2) and Try Four (7).

Race 2

Natural Dancer (3) has been racing in good form in recent months.  Last start she finished 2nd in the Bat Out Of Hell which was a top effort considering she jumped awkwardly and was close to the rear in running.  Although 1.3 lengths from the winner, she was clearly in front of the rest.  If she runs up to that, she’ll be hard to beat here.  She’s up in weight now but has drawn barrier 1 for Jason Taylor so she should get a top run from there.  Other hopes to Smart Cash (11), Charge Account (9) and Good Job Bro (13).

Race 3

Midnight Allure (2) took on the older horses last start in a BM70 1640m race at Doomben.  He deadset put them to the sword.  He won by 4.8 lengths easing down.  He comes back to his own age here and will carry the same weight after the claim for Luke Dittman.  He has drawn wide in barrier 12 but there doesn’t look to be much speed so I can see young Dittman being able to get him across to a handy position.  The way he finished off last time suggests the 1800m will pose no problems.  Other hopes to Glorious Red (1), Loveitt (3) and Reckless Abandon (4).

***Seriously bummed about the scratching of Midnight Allure but we certainly wouldn’t want it to run if it’s not 100%.  Especially after it had been smacked.  I’m not overly confident but I’ll make Glorious Red (1) my top pick and bring in Rich Reward (5) as another hope.***

Race 4

Daph ‘N’ Alf (2) is in a rich vein of form at the moment and I’m going to get on that train.  He steps up to 1600m here and although his stats are far from flattering at the trip, his current form suggests to me he is up to it.  Two starts back he won over 1400m on a heavy surface by 3 lengths.  He then finished a narrow 2nd in Listed company over 1300m at the Gold Coast.  He’s drawn wide in barrier 12 but again the speed doesn’t look that great so Cassie Schmidt who claims 3kg should be able to get across and trail the leader.  With an economical run, I expect him to be in the finish.  Other hopes to Goldslick (4), Allknight Saint (10) and Elmantosh (6).

Race 5

There seems to be a number of good chances in the opening leg of the quaddie.  I’m going with Sea Red (8).  She resumes here and has a good fresh record.  Last campaign she resumed at this same track and distance and put a Class 3 field away by 3.3 lengths.  She’ll get back but the larger track and the adequate speed should help her.  She gets in with just 52kg after the claim for Alysha Collett.  Other hopes to Little Bit Ditsy (3), Queen Of The Lochs (1) and Piamimi (5).

Race 6

Although I don’t think any superstars will come out of the Magic Millions race, I’m using that race as my guide to this race over 1200m.  Pepperano (11) ran a galant 2nd in the Magic Millions after drawing wide and racing 3 wide.  She was entitled to gas out but fought on to go down by just 3/4 of length.  Trainer Liam Birchley says she’s come on from that run and from a good barrier will prove hard to toss.  Damian Browne stays aboard which is a positive as he loves the Sunny Coast.  Other hopes to New Wings (13), Real Good (1) and Mishani Honcho (3).

Race 7

I’m going with Rob Heathcote’s old warrior Excellantes (1).  His last 2 runs have been quite good.  He finished 2nd here to Saluter when heavily disadvantaged at the weights and then finished 1.8 lengths back in 5th on Magic Millions Day.  Happy Galaxy beat him that day but there is a 3kg weight turnaround thanks to the claim of Alysha Collett.  In that race Happy Galaxy got a clear passage down the outside whereas Excellantes was held up a couple of times in the straight. From barrier 3 Collett will be able to take up the running or box seat and avoid those troubles.  They look the definite quinella option.  Other hopes to Happy Galaxy (2), Living On A Prayer (5) and Black Cash (6).

Race 8

Big field in the last makes this a tough way to finish up.  Lock’s Legend (6) has been a model of consistency lately and was repaid for that with a tough win last start.  He’s been in the quinella 9 of 13 starts.  In his last start win where he defeated Queen Of The Lochs, he raced midfield before attacking the line strongly.  Larry Cassidy will be able to administer a similar game plan from barrier 2.  Other hopes to  Great Game (4), Believe’N’Receive (2) and Friendly Dragon (3).

Best Bets

Race 3 – Midnight Allure (2)

Race 6 – Pepperano (11)

For those playing elsewhere, here’s a few in Sydney and Melbourne I don’t mind.

Randwick

Race 1 – Good Project (1)

Race 6 – Mardi (7)

Race 8 – Marianne (4)

Flemington

Race 7 – Boristar (9)